Stimulus Check

Let us assume that sometime soon I get Uncle Sam’s economy stimulus check for $1,200 ... which I didn’t ask for and don’t particularly need. What should I do with it?  Here are some possibilities:

- Buy $100 gift cards at 12 local restaurants to help them stay alive?

- Donate it to the local food bank?

- Put it in my grandkids’ college funds?

- Buy hydrovychloroquine tablets for everyone in the neighborhood?

- Donate it to the Trump re-election campaign?

- Buy 12 round-trip Delta airline tickets to Hawaii?

- Donate to a local pol’s “campaign” in exchange for a cushy no-show state job?

- Fund a gun-rights billboard on the Mass pike?

- Buy a lifetime supply of toilet paper?

- Give it back to the government?

My wife won’t tell me how she is going to spend her check ... lots of Netflix movies for our grandkids to keep them occupied during this long shutdown?

Compulsions

After hanging around this Big Blue Marble for oh so many years, I have concluded that everyone lives with their compulsions ... money, reading, ”Jeopardy,” trolling Twitter, binge watching Netflix, hating Trump, sex with underage girls, exercising, Ben and Jerry’s ice cream, whatever.

I think mine now is writing this silly blog.

Headlines

Inside [Gov.] Ralph Northam’s plot for survival

The US and China don’t even have a trade deal draft yet as deadline approaches

DEMs GO ECO WILD! Phase out air travel in next 10 years ...

Warren hints at more documents claiming Native American heritage

The impossible green dream of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trump is reportedly expected to ban Chinese telecom equipment from US networks

John Roberts joins liberal justices as Supreme Court blocks Louisiana abortion law ...

‘The View’ host Joy Behar under fire for use of blackface

Amazon’s Bezos accuses National Enquirer of ‘extortion and blackmail’

Woody Allen is suing Amazon for killing his movie deal

Netflix paid $0 in taxes ... Record $845 million profits ...

Lindsey Graham: ‘Trump can be a handful’

Headlines

House Democrats to push for more diversity in top corporate ranks

Chinese manufacturing had an even worse December than expected, more data show

Brazil's Bolsonaro rakes power amid high hopes, fears ...

John Brennan hopes GOP ditches Trump in 2019

Changes may be ahead for criticized Georgia election system

Why 2019 could be very good for stocks, after worst year in a decade

Courtroom foe resurrects Mueller team's prior botched legal work ... [prosecutorial misconduct]

Poll: Most Democrats pessimistic about 2019

Trade deal unlikely under May's Brexit deal, U.S. enjoy warns U.K.

Romney attacks Trump saying he causes dismay around the world

Netflix bows to Kingdom, corporate censorship intensifies

Kenye West kicks off 2019 by reasserting support for Donald Trump

Headlines

Germany's Merkel endorses idea of joint  European defense force

US is isolated at G7 as allies express 'unanimous concern and disappointment' at Trump's trade policies

President's legal advisers: Misleading journalists is not a crime ...

Bill Clinton shock: Press went easy on Obama -- 'because he's black'

China warns Trump tariffs could impede trade talks

Purdue Pharma knew its opioids were widely abused

New Italian gov't vows to create jobs, deport migrants ...

One year after Paris: Trump brake the spell of the Climate Change mania

Trump to host Ramadan dinner

Dairy farmers are struggling as they are squeezed out of a changing milk market

Angry protests rock Jordan ...

Republicans turn on Nerflix

Headlines

Trump calls off historic meeting with Kim Jong Un

Trump signs the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis

8 women accuse Morgan Freeman ... inappropriate behavior, harassment ...

Obamacare premiums to spike by 15% in 2019

Second top official resigns from Bernie Sander's group

Russia quietly conducts the longest range surface-to-air missile test

Home values rising at fastest rate in 12 years ...

James Clapper admits to 'spying' from inside Trump campaign

Democrats muscle into FBI informant meeting

Trump pardons late [black] boxer Jack Johnson

Newfoundland buried in foot of snow ...

Netflix [now] more valuable than Disney, Comcast

Headlines

Dems grit their teeth and cheer for Trump on North Korea

Trump may reportedly lift US sales ban on ZTE [phones]

Iced latte: Starbucks says drug use, sleeping unacceptable ...

China's Navy will double size of U.S. Navy by 2030

Grassley seeks DOJ documents on officials' contacts with dossier author

People are selling their royal wedding gift bags on EBay

Human race just 0.01% of all life -- but has eradicated most other living things ...

DHS official: 'In one week, Democrats chose to defend' Hamas, MS-13

Obamas cut deal with Netflix

Goldman Sachs: Fiscal outlook for US 'is not good'

Pope shock: OK to be gay ...

John Brennan threatens Ryan, McConnell for 'enabling' Trump

Headlines

Trump's lovefest with Dershowitz blossoms

[Rep.] Scalise holds Zuckerberg's feet to the fire over alleged Facebook algorithm bias

Comey calls Trump mob boss

Fact Check: Facebook doesn't sell [user] data? Not exactly ...

Now you're free, Paul Ryan, fire Devin Nunes

Tesla is the biggest short in the U.S. stock market

NETFLIX accused of violating tax law with bonuses to top execs ...

Donald Trump: 'Get ready Russia' for missile launch into Syria ...

[Gov. Jerry] Brown agrees to send National Guard troops to Mexico border

Congress grills Zuckerberg for second day: 'Wjy should we trust you?

Trump blames Mueller probe for Russia 'bad blood' ...

Kremlin on Trump's Syria tweet: says 'We don't do Twitter diplomacy'

Headlines

Trump attack unleashes oppo against Mueller

Tesla's plunge could be 'self-fulfilling' prophecy for further declines, Morgan Stanley says

Stormy Daniels' lawyer says she 'would consider settlement' with Trump ...

Susan Rice joins Netflix board

Voters favor Stormy over Trump

Special Counsel Mueller links former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates to Russian spy

Self-driving car pulled over, ticketed ...

Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens: 'Repeal the Second Amendment'

Trump wants to 'go after' Amazon over taxes, but Congress and Supreme Court Could settle issue for him

Mayo Clinic CEO: Some healthcare middlemen creating lots of 'waste' in U.S. system

Analysis: Constitution compels Sessions dismiss Mueller from non-campaign cases ...

NRA donations triple

Headlines

Trump meeting with Kim could signal major thaw in nuclear standoff

A $10,000 bet on Amazon at the market bottom 9 years ago would be worth $250,000 today

FACEBOOK DROPPING: 24% drop in user time spent ...

Boom: U.S. adds 313.000 jobs in February

Interior spent $139K on Zinke office doors

Tesla CEO Rlon Musk's 'unprecedented' $2.6 billion compensation too high, advisers say

Even millenials starting to hate social media ...

Study: American taxpayers gave $1.5 billion to abortion providers

Playbook scoop: [Liz] Warren goes after Kushner Companies loans

The last two times North Korea said it was giving up its nukes, it was lying

Obama goes Hollywood: To produce Netflix shows ...

Elon Musk sides with Trump on trade with China, citing 25% import duty on American cars

Headlines

One vote recount win gives Democrats tie in Virginia state house

House IT aides ran car dealership with markings of a nefarious money laundering operation

Senators, White House lay groundwork for 'dreamers' deal ...

Hillary Clinton's approval rating falls to record low

Tax bill wacks liberal big cities

FBI Deputy Director [Rosenstein] ought to be replaced says top Senate Republican

Drug, alcohol deaths at workplace soar ...

Legal immigration hit 8.5 million under Obama

GOP defectors block Trump's Ex-Im Bank nominee

The New York Times biggest investor [Carlos Slim] is selling over half his shares

Netflix now big as all cable ...

[Rep.] Jordan: DOJ 'orchestrated plan' to prevent Trump from becoming president

Headlines

All from Internet news sites. guess which from CNBC?

Trump challanges Justice Dept. independence

Republicans' hidden 46% tax bracket?

Netflix cuts ties with Kevin Spacey after sexual misconduct allegations

Report: Tesla shares crash over end of electric car tax break ...

ANTIFA rallies planned in at least 20 U.S. cities

Democrats still toxic in rural America

28 year-old's company makes millions buying on Walmart and selling on Amazon

Bergdahl avoids prison time ...

500,000 foreign nationals win 'visa lottery' since 2005

Pelosi moves to muzzle Trump impeachment talk

Report: Carter Page testified before Mueller grand jury, met with Russian official during campaign

Bam! Brazile breaks silence: Hillary rigged race ...

... visa lottery chain migration imported 5 million foreigners since 1994

A Few Observations

- Global-warming alarmists point to our recent hurricanes as evidence of their religion ... saying that warmer waters makes for more powerful storms. However, there is another factor that seems to be neglected ... the speed of such hurricanes over water. Both hurricanes Irma and Maria were very slow moving and thus could pick up more energy independent of the actual water temperature. Hurricane Nate is fast moving and would seem to be far less dangerous.

- Why was Harvey Weinstein finally outed after decades of his well-known boorish behavior? Malia Obama has been an intern of his for some months and she has been seen recently bundled up in a parka when around Weinstein (a well-known local protection against his groping hands). Perhaps Harvey had earlier made a move on Obama's number one ... and the NYT is in payback mode?

- The Las Vegas shooter, Stephen Paddock, owned several airplanes and was a licensed pilot. He could have loaded up one of his planes with ammonium nitrate and flown it into the same crowd he shot up (it was right near the Las Vegas airport) ... and killed multiples more country-music fans than he did.

- The U.S.stock market is currently extended and overbought. Just about everyone expects at least a 10% correction ... but we don't know when. I believe that all stocks will suffer then ... but the ones which will be most punished will be the high multiple tech stocks typified by the FANG group (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google). Staying with multinational companies with price-earnings multiples below 15 and dividend yields above 3% should offer a modicum of safety. And don't forget that, after the bloodbath, to be a buyer.

Strategic High Ground

The following successful companies currently enjoy the strategic high ground in their markets ... and their stock prices reflect it, IMHO. Here are what I feel are the indicated reasons for their success (besides mostly good operational prowess):

Tesla -- Almost $5 billion in U.S. government subsidies.

Facebook -- Huge share of corporate media on-line advertising dollars without, like most other media giants, having to spend on content ... because its users provide it.

Apple -- Respectable market share in the smart-phone business with very high margins because of premium pricing and off-shore manufacturing.

Amazon -- Ability to predatory price for on-line retail goods because of its Internet " cloud" (Web Services) revenues and profits.

Google (Alphabet)  -- Dominate market share in on-line searching and associated ads ... allowing it to gobble up other Internet opportunities at will.

Microsoft -- Owns the operating system and Internet browser of record on most newly purchased PCs along with the ability continually to obsolete and replace its commodity software products.

Netflix -- Huge and growing (international) subscriber base due to the appeal of its original content programming, the spiraling cost of the movie theater experience ... and the quality/low cost of home theaters.

How long these companies will enjoy these lofty positions is anyone's guess (witness Walmart).

Headlines

These headlines are real ... they have all been discovered on Internet news sites. Guess which ones came from Politico?

[NKorea] possesses 10-25 nuclear weapons ...

Russian journalist and Putin critic dies after brutal beating

Trump plans executive order on steel imports

Calexit leader moves to Russia permanently

GM closes operations in Venezuela after plant seized

Blood from babies to restore memory?

Ryan says Congress is close to deal on health care

Tillerson takes aim at Iran in rare press appearance

Mystery over 730,000 missing elephants ...

CNN: Trump's North Korea policy might just be working

Congress likely to avoid gov't shutdown

Netflix users have watched half a billion hours of Adam Sandler movies

Headlines

These headlines are real ... they have all been discovered on Internet news sites. Guess which ones came from Politico?

JP Morgan's Dimon: Repatriation will create 'QE4'-like stimulus

Pakistanis suspected of hacking Congress had access to everything

500 sanctuary cities in USA ...

College removes scales from gym after students complain it's 'triggering' ...

Amy Schumer's Netflix special flooded with one-star reviews, 'I've had migraines that were funnier'

Breitbart relishing new found power to torment Paul Ryan

Drudge wants Trump to gut National Weather Service

Obama tried to take Andrew Jackson off the $20. Now Trump is visiting his grave ...

Senate kills rule limiting drug testing for unemployment benefits

Mother and son become father and daughter ...

Trump made $150 million in 2005 and paid $38 million in federal taxes

Luminous green ice growing in Antarctica ...

Silicon Flats

Mad Money's Jim Cramer has identified the ten best stock investments since the market panic of 2008 and they are not the ones you would expect ... not Google (aka, Alphabet), not Amazon, not Apple, not Facebook, not Microsoft. In fact there is only one Silicon Valley company in the group, Netflix. These stocks have moved up anywhere from 1,861% to 6,545% and their names (in descending order) are: Incyte Corp. (biopharma), United Rentals (equipment rentals), Regeneron (biotech), Alaska Air (airlines), Windham Worldwide (hotels), Netflix (media), American Airlines (airlines), Priceline (travel info), CBS (media), and Fifth Third Bancorp. (banking).

To read more about these winners, see: CNBC Article.

FANG

The stock market is down almost 300 points today ... to continue a stock market slide that started a few months back. So far the Dow Jones Average is down over 9% and it looks like things are not yet done. A correction is -10%+ and a washout is usually around -20%. The stocks that I had previously cautioned you to watch out for are Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (FANG) as precursors of a market correction... see: Timber!! ... are all down big ... about as bad as the overall market. Even though people love these stocks, they are being used as a source of funds for over-extended investors.

When will things turn around? If I knew this I would be a wealthy man (which I am not) ... maybe when the price of oil turns around? However, having sold a lot of my winners a while back to raise a cash reserve, I am starting to nibble on high-yield stocks and some defensive issues like gold and silver miners. Wish me luck ... and the same to you.

Timber!!

One by one the big trees in the stock market are getting axed. First it was Alibaba, then Exxon, then Apple, then Twitter, then Disney, then Tesla, then Fitbit ... many of these high fliers after reporting stellar quarters. The only biggies who seem to have escaped this clear-cutting so far have been Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (the FANG group as christened by Jim Cramer.) What's going on? Yes China is slowing down and may, in fact, be in a recession. And yes, the Federal Reserve Bank is likely going to start raising interest rates next month. But earnings of these mentioned forest-floor timbers have still been improving and future guidance is still positive. So what is wrong?

To me the dramatic price-drops in these mostly high PER (price earnings ratio) stocks are presaging a general market sell-off sometime soon. Generally in stock market down-drafts, it is the high-flying stocks that suffer the most ... and since these stocks have been the investments of last resort as weakness permeated most other market segments (see: Where to Invest), it is now their turn in the barrel. In fact, I suspect that any real weakness in the FANG group will be the final indication that a major stock market correction is upon us.

So keep your powder dry ...

Predictions

Every year a group of our friends get together to celebrate New Year's Eve. One tradition is for us to make predictions for the ensuing year and then, come the next New Year's Eve, prizes are given for the most prescience. Here are a few of this year’s more interesting predictions:

                                                                                                                    

• New vaccine to slow the onset of Alzheimer’s disease

• Prince and Elton John appear together on tour      

• Amazon takes over US Postal Service

• Drop in oil price puts kibosh on XL Pipeline

• President Obama’s approval rating reaches 58% 

• Republicans will lose two more House members due to misbehavior

• Superbowl will be lowest scoring game in history

• Google will buy Netflix      

• Greece will be asked to leave the European Union

• Joe Biden is not VP at the end of 2015

• Cosmic pulse disrupts communications for days

• Deval Patrick appointed judge of a high court or ambassador

• Hillary urged to drop out in favor of Elizabeth Warren

• Lost Malaysian jet debris discovered in unexpected location

• Joyce Carol Oates will win Noble Prize in literature

• Putin removed from office as Russian economy tanks

 • RIP – George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter

• George Clooney and wife separate

• Miley Cyrus marries Patrick Schwarzenegger

• Patriots win Super Bowl

• Iran acquires atomic weaponry

• Stock Market will correct by at least 10%

• Eddie Redmayne wins Best Actor for “Theory of Everything”

• “Selma” wins Best Picture

• Major LA earthquake … extensive damage
• Latin America pushes Middle East off of 24/7 news casting    

• Brazil will launch a satellite

• Sony Pictures will sell off its library of movies
• Apple stock soars 50%

• Keith Richards dies

• Aaron Hernandez found not guilty

• Marathon bomber – guilty but no death penalty

• “Boyhood” wins Best Picture

• Russia will default on its debts … again

Tune in this time next year for the results …