Showing posts with label correction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label correction. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Correction


A while back I made a foray into the COVID-19 death statistics in the United States and suggested that they were being fudged to imply a surge in our deaths to match our surge in new cases ... see: Fake Stats.

Well, if you return to that Washington Post “Covid Deaths” graph of deaths in that link, you will now see why this “spike” in these numbers occurred. It seems that, in a footnote, WaPo now indicates that on June 25th over 1,800 deaths were added to this daily total by New Jersey ... and it looks like Delaware also slipped some extras in too. Anyway, this spike was obviously an outlier and only briefly interrupted the visible downward path of US COvID deaths.

However, we are not out of the woods yet as new virus deaths are supposed to lag new cases by two or three weeks ... so we still have a little time to wait to see if the opening of our economy might need to be slowed or reversed. I say this because a new case surge without a new death surge is not a huge problem ... something like the common cold ... not worthy of a new shutdown.

Sometime next week we should know for sure.

Friday, August 21, 2015

FANG


The stock market is down almost 300 points today ... to continue a stock market slide that started a few months back. So far the Dow Jones Average is down over 9% and it looks like things are not yet done. A correction is -10%+ and a washout is usually around -20%. The stocks that I had previously cautioned you to watch out for are Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (FANG) as precursors of a market correction... see: Timber!! ... are all down big ... about as bad as the overall market. Even though people love these stocks, they are being used as a source of funds for over-extended investors.

When will things turn around? If I knew this I would be a wealthy man (which I am not) ... maybe when the price of oil turns around? However, having sold a lot of my winners a while back to raise a cash reserve, I am starting to nibble on high-yield stocks and some defensive issues like gold and silver miners. Wish me luck ... and the same to you.