2019 Predictions

- Trump is impeached ... not convicted n Senate ...  but McConnell votes guilty

- China will not cave in trade war ... 25% tariffs happen  ... Apple and Nike declare bankruptcy

- US to pull out of Afghanistan, entire Pentagon resigns

- "Hard" Brexit ... Theresa May becomes Angela Merkel's sex slave

- Russia puts missiles in Venezuela which then sells them to North Korea

- Paul Ryan leaves his family, returns to DC as very high priced lobbyist

- Michelle O announces she is transgender and will run in 2020

- Trump reveals that his presidency is just a Reality TV gig

- Facebook transitions into a porn website, Zuckerberg and Sandberg star

- Mueller indicts Jared Kushner for eating bacon

- John Roberts becomes swing vote on Supreme Court ... somehow upholds ACA without the Individual Mandate

Obvious Truth #33

Jeff Bezos

Predictions are almost never correct ... either in direction or detail. Despite this failing, we keep using them to chart our way into a murky future ... because the few that turn out to be accurate ... in direction AND detail ... can change the world and bring enormous rewards.

2018 Predictions

Every year, as part of a group of friends' New Years festivities, I (and others) make some predictions for the coming year. Here are my latest forecasts:

 Republicans will retain the Senate, modest losses in the House

 Economy will soar ... up almost 4%, stock market, flat to slightly down

 Mexican wall will be at least half completed

 Mueller will end things with a whimper ... no convictions due to tainted process and evidence

Big infrastructure bill will be overwhelmingly enacted

Tesla Motors' stock will be at least halved

Russia will cooperate with Trump on Iran and NKorea ...

Iran and Turkey will erupt in violent protests

RIP: Bush 41, Jimmy Carter,  John McCain, Leonard DiCaprio

US Treasury will issue its own electronic (crypto)currency

ISIS will be blamed for at least 10 terror attacks worldwide

NKorea will implode ... Kim disappears

Taliban suffers big losses in Afghanistan

Huge Nationalist movements throughout Europe

Predictions.

I have been batting like the ol' Ted Williams  of late ... predicting the U.S. stock market swoon arising out of the Asian contagion  ... see: Broken China ... and recently forecasting that Obama would, by fiat, allow droves of Syrian refugees into the United States ... see: Good Fences. See the Syrian refugee prediction coming true here: U.S. News Story. Not to mention my prescience about "climate change" and Hillary Clinton.

Now, if only I could get nominated to the Soothsayer Hall of Fame ...

Predictions

Every year a group of our friends get together to celebrate New Year's Eve. One tradition is for us to make predictions for the ensuing year and then, come the next New Year's Eve, prizes are given for the most prescience. Here are a few of this year’s more interesting predictions:

                                                                                                                    

• New vaccine to slow the onset of Alzheimer’s disease

• Prince and Elton John appear together on tour      

• Amazon takes over US Postal Service

• Drop in oil price puts kibosh on XL Pipeline

• President Obama’s approval rating reaches 58% 

• Republicans will lose two more House members due to misbehavior

• Superbowl will be lowest scoring game in history

• Google will buy Netflix      

• Greece will be asked to leave the European Union

• Joe Biden is not VP at the end of 2015

• Cosmic pulse disrupts communications for days

• Deval Patrick appointed judge of a high court or ambassador

• Hillary urged to drop out in favor of Elizabeth Warren

• Lost Malaysian jet debris discovered in unexpected location

• Joyce Carol Oates will win Noble Prize in literature

• Putin removed from office as Russian economy tanks

 • RIP – George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter

• George Clooney and wife separate

• Miley Cyrus marries Patrick Schwarzenegger

• Patriots win Super Bowl

• Iran acquires atomic weaponry

• Stock Market will correct by at least 10%

• Eddie Redmayne wins Best Actor for “Theory of Everything”

• “Selma” wins Best Picture

• Major LA earthquake … extensive damage
• Latin America pushes Middle East off of 24/7 news casting    

• Brazil will launch a satellite

• Sony Pictures will sell off its library of movies
• Apple stock soars 50%

• Keith Richards dies

• Aaron Hernandez found not guilty

• Marathon bomber – guilty but no death penalty

• “Boyhood” wins Best Picture

• Russia will default on its debts … again

Tune in this time next year for the results …

The Oracle of Natick

Every New Year's eve a group of our friends get together to dine and celebrate, including a number of traditional events ... one of which is that each of us forecasts what will occur in the following twelve months.   Then the next New Year's eve we re-read these predictions and award a prize to our best oracle.  This year, I think I have exhibited remarkable prescience (if I do say so myself.)  Here were my predictions last time (6.3 right out of 10 ... and there is still a month and a half to go) which, if I were alllowed to win, surely would take the  prize:

• Democrats will lose their majority in the House but not the Senate

• Chinese stock market will collapse (-20%+)

• Obama will have a nervous breakdown

• Russia will shut off natural gas to the EU

• Scott Brown is elected to the Senate

• Gitmo will not be closed down

• Two new Supreme Court justices will be appointed (after much ado)

• Iran’s nuclear facilities will be shut down (or destroyed)

• Terrorist attacks in NYC, Los Angeles and Dallas

• General Motors will go public