Headlines

Judge strikes down DeVos plan to boost pandemic relief to private schools

Drug makers seek to reassure public about coronavirus vaccine with joint safety

President Trump purges ‘Critical Race Theory’ propaganda from federal agencies

Fmr acting AG: Facebook, Twitter algorithms could be viewed by DOJ as an ‘illegal campaign contribution’

Trump contradicts health officials, says ‘probably’ Covid-19 vaccine in October

The stock market’s shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback

BLM harasses homeowners and trashes local businesses in Rochester

Oregon gov.: Not deploying National Guard to Portland because they aren’t trained or needed”

Biden: QAnon is ‘bizarre’ and ‘embarrassing,’ supporters should seek mental health treatment

Powell says low interest rates could last for years

President Trump oversees historic Kosovo-Serbia economic deal

Former Turkish PM says Erdogan aggression risks military clash with Greece

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Today’s Poser

Has anyone noticed that there is almost a perfect correlation between the stock market’s performance and the ups and downs of how Trump is doing in the polls?


STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Headlines

Broken windows and Molotov cocktail: DOJ finds creative ways into local rioting cases

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Berman refuses to leave after Trump says SEC chief Clayton will replace him

One dead and another wounded from shooting in CHAZ/CHOP

Black Lives Matter co-founder: ‘Our goal is to get Trump out’

Fox News poll: Voters say campaign rallies are a bad idea

The stock market might be pricey, but it is nothing like the genuine market bubbles of the past

Rioters in California tear down statue of Francis Scott Key, composer of The Star Spangled Banner

Poll: 8-in-10 have ‘favorable’ view of people who wear masks

Trump rejects Fauci’s warning about football’s return

Judge denies Trump administration’s attempt to block John Bolton’s book

Iran unsuprisingly found to be engaging in secret nuclear work

Barr: I would have preferred grand jury, completed investigation in Brooks case

Price Earnings Ratios

“Don’t fight the Fed” — old Wall Street saying

Even before the coronavirus pandemic cut the pins out of the stock market, stock valuations were, by historic standards, inflated. The measure usually used to gauge optimism in the stock market is its price-earnings ratio (PER)... or the multiplier applied to expected corporate earnings to arrive at a price that one is will to pay when buying any stock ... see: Wikipedia Entry.

Back on February 12th (the market high), the PER was around 18x (24x on trailing earnings ... quite high ... but not a historic high which occurred during the depths of the Great Depression) ... but nevertheless bubbly. And, if the Orangeman is right and we run stocks back up to their previous highs ... combined with much lower earnings impacted by the pandemic ... we well might have PERs in nose-bleed territory.

However, dear reader, there is one fact that is often neglected when warnings about high PERs are clamored. And that is that PERs are inversely related to interest rates. Because of discounting calculations, the lower are overall interest rates (now virtually 0%), the higher is the market PER that can be justified. And if and when earnings recover from the current shutdown, the margin of safety will be greater than it would seem.

So, dear reader, enjoy this stock market rally ... UNTIL you see the Fed start pushing interest rates back up again! Then, unless you can guarantee an explosion in earnings, I would expect the stock market goose to stop laying these golden eggs ... Trump bedamned.

Headlines

China put pressure on the EU to soften coronavirus disinformation report

Making sense of the stock market just 16% off its high while a pandemic costs 26 million jobs

Coronavirus in California, since Fall?

State Health Commissioner says reopening Virginia ‘will be a two year affair’

New evidence surfaces in Tara Reade allegation against Biden

Coronavirus live updates: ‘21 days of hell’: NY gov on state’s death rate, UK fatalities to 20,000

Nervous Republicans see president sinking, and taking Senate with him ...

Donald Trump does not owe 51 million to Bank of China ...

Belgium to begin relaxing coronavirus restrictions May 4

Congress approves $370 billion more for small businesses —  but money could run out in days

Alarming number of Americans believe vaccine exists and is being withheld ...

Donald Trump does not owe millions to Bank of China

Today’s Poser

Since Nancy Pelosi can dramatically jerk the stock market around with a mere gesture, is it possible that she or her hidden proxies are reaping huge rewards by trading ahead of what she does or doesn’t do?

Headlines

Pelosi hasTrump over a barrel

Coronavirus live update: Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson released from hospital, Mulvaney self-quartanies

Claim: 86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected

Donald Trump: U.S. economy ‘may be’ headed for a recession

Poll: Most Americans don’t trust Trump on coronavirus information

Regulators considering more changes to free up bank liquidity, sources say

18 months of social distancing?

Wuhan epidemic: ACLU sues to release migrants from detention

Senate could push through ‘Phase 3’ coronavirus rescue plan this week

Morgan Stanley now says a global recession in 2020 is now the firm’s ‘base case’

LA releasing inmates ...

Paul Krugman celebrates stock market rout

Headlines

Biden names new campaign manager

NHL suspends season due to coronavirus

Market -25% since Trump said ’buy’ ...

Fauci: Coronavirus in U.S. would be ‘worse’ without travel bans

Fed announces massive cash injection to relieve U.S. debt markets

Coronavirus live update: Senate cancels recess, professional sports upended

Patients contagious up to 37 days ...

Bernie Sanders: Coronavirus shows why America needs Single Payer

Pentagon leaders warn of military response after deadly [Iraqi] rocket attack

Human trials testing coronavirus vaccine could begin ‘within a few weeks.’ top US health official

Trump re-election chances suddenly look shakier ...

‘The E.U. disapproves’: Brussels angry Trump acted without their permission

Headlines

De Blasio claims Biden hasn’t been vetted

Mortgage bankers double their 2020 refinance forecasts

Italy quarantines entire country ... New York deploys national guard ...

Trump announces financial assistance for those impacted by coronavirus

Trump has not been tested for coronavirus

Coronavirus live update: First NJ death/ NY containment  zone/ Dow whipsaws

Biden loses cool in Detroit: ‘You’re full of sh*t’ ...

Poll: Romney more popular with Democrats than Republicans

‘I can do it in seven minutes’: Bernie knocks Biden over short speeches

El-Erian: Stock market bottom is not in yet, despite the bounce after Monday’s historic decline

Bernie: Real Socialism has never been tried ...

Biden boost: DNC changes debate rules to allow candidates to sit down

Headlines

U.S. begins troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, official says

Coronavirus live update: Third cruise ship is kept at sea; billionaires are losing billions

Market bloodbath: stocks crater ... oil plunge ... banks hit hard ... Fed’s pump more cash

Deadly prison protests breakout in Italy ...

Progressive group that endorsed Warren switches to Sanders

Mortgage rates could be even lower, but lenders struggling with high demand

Michigan once was Bernie resurrection. It could now be his funeral ...

Stocks slammed, market circuit breakers triggered, trading halted

 Trump attacks second Democratic governor  over coronavirus criticism

WHO says threat of pandemic ‘has become very real’ even as China recoveries rise

Scott Adams: Even with coronavirus, Bernie and Biden will lose

Poll: Trump leads Joe Biden in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania

Today’s Poser

Would you exchange even half the gains you have enjoyed in the stock market (inc. IRAs, 401Ks) since the day Trump was elected ... for a guarantee that he would not be re-elected in November?

Headlines

Schiff: Trump lawyers ‘definitely afraid’ of impeachment witnesses

How coronavirus is beginning to hit China’s economy

Virus strengthening ... Death toll rise ... 56 million quarantined

Confusion: Joe [Biden] contradicts Dem witnesses on Ukrainian scandal ...

Dershowitz: Democrats ‘completely failed’ to make case for Trump’s impeachment

Sanders leads New Hampshire Democrat primary less than three weeks out

Romney: ‘It’s very likely I’ll be in favor of witnesses’ ...

VA House committee passes gun control measures

Trump moves to gut Obama housing discrimination rules

The market’s valuation, momentum and speculative activity is nowhere near as extreme as in 1999

USA warns: Can’t evacuate all Americans from coronavirus epicenter ...

Macron begs USA to keep troops in Africa

Headlines

Trump officials warn senators more Wuhan virus cases likely

The stock market just set another record, this one going back to 1972

Outbreak overwhelms ... 40 million quarantined ... ‘spreads through eyes’

Ammo sales surge as Virginians anticipate Democrat gun control

Trump threatens to cut California funding over abortion coverage

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring dozens of other potential cases

Noonan: Impeachment needs witnesses on both sides ...

Between 500K and 1M non-citizens may get voting rights in New York City

Trump complains about his defense team’s ‘Death Valley’ impeachment time slot

Oil drops the most since May on fears coronavirus will hit growth

Update: 34 troops diagnoses with tram traumatic brain injuries after Iran strike

Record-high knife crime in ‘gun free’ Britain

Headlines

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

Protesters in Iran demand leaders quit after military admits it shot down passenger plane

Trump tweets in Farsi ... ‘Do not kill your protesters’ ...

Revealed: McCabe pushed ‘golden shower’ hoax — and Comey approved ...

Australia turns from defense to offense in wildfire battle

Trump tell Iranian protesters he stands with them and warns Tehran: ‘The world is watching’

Last Den [candidate] all in on Medicare for All ...

Andrew Yang blasts DNC after missing polling threshold

Trump suggests he’d invoke executive privilege to block Bolton testimony

The stock market has not been as richly valued or avidly loved in two years

USA warns Iraq about losing bank account access if troops told to leave ...

USA celebrates Taiwan leader’s reelection ... blackeye for Beijing ...

Headlines

Trump warns Syria , Russia,  and Iran against killing ‘innocent civilians’ in Idtib Provence

New rule would make it possible to track and identify nearly all drones flying in the U.S.

ChinaRussinIran navy drills ... Growing alliance

IG Report shock: Steele funneled claims through John McCain after FBI dropped him as source

Democrats seize on anti-Obamacare ruling to steamroll GOP 2020

Trump stock market  rally is far outpacing past US presidents

Trump already searching for his next Secretary of State

Lisa Murkowski ‘disturbed’ by coordination vow between Senate and White House

Democrat insiders: Bernie could win the nomination

China races to build its own Tesla as economy slows and subsidies dry up

Americans retiring to Vietnam, for cheap healthcare and decent living standard.... Monthly expenses rarely exceed $2,000

Michael Moore: Trump will not debate Democrat candidate

Headlines

House takes huge impeachment step with vote on Trump probe

Wall Street strategists dispute Trump’s claim that impeachment is impacting the stock market

Only 2 Dems vote against [Impeachment Inquiry Resolution] ...

House Democrats pass partisan impeachment process resolution

Judge chides DOJ for trying to block star Mueller witness testimony

A 12th United Auto Workers official is charged in ongoing federal corruption probe

Legislation would require search engines to disclose algorithms ...

Impeachment unpopular in battleground states

De Blasio: ‘Something doesn’t fit’ snout Jeffery Epstein death

US wind energy capacity is now more than 100 gigawatts, according to new report

Hong Kong protesters, police in Halloween standoff ...

Poll: 7-in-10 likely voters believe in ‘America first’

Headlines

‘I’m worried’: Allies fear NRA has lost its power in Washington

Trump's tax cut not giving the US economy the boost it needs

Rice cookers close NYC subway ... Bomb prank? Test? ... NYPD hunts for suspect ...

Tlaib boycotts own grandmother to spite Trump

Trump scores partial win on asylum ban as court narrows injunction

Trump called the CEOs of the biggest US banks on Wednesday as the stock market plunged

Chinese, Russian warplanes in skies near SKorea ...

MSNBC: Trump supporters can’t find Greenland on the map

Blindsided: Why does Beijing keep getting Hong Kong wrong?

Fed may not have enough firepower to prevent a recession

Apple, EU set for showdown over record tax bill ...

Cathay Pacific CEO resigns due to Hong Kong airport protests

Looming Recession?

A recession is the Democrats’ wet dream. They know that an economic swoon would help their chances in the presidential election next year. So what might cause a recession? Certainly the U.S.-China trade war could be a significant factor. In fact, it is clear now that the Chinese now are not going to agree to what day of the week it is until after November, 2020 ... hoping that Trump will be bounced and a squishy Democrat will be then sitting across the negotiating table. Trump clearly knows this and is reducing expectations.

Another possibility is the trade deal with Mexico and Canada ... not as big as China, but still important. Nancy Pelosi is sitting on the USMCA like it is a hard-boiled egg. She will not give Trump a win this close to the next election even if it damages our country. How patriotic!

And, of course, the Fed has a potentially huge roll in how well our economy does. It really screwed the pooch last December when it continued raising interest rates when much of the rest of the developed world had negative rates to stimulate their economies. There then was over a three percentage point differential in rates which strengthen the dollar and hurt exports. Trump’s jawboning has caused Powell to reverse himself and start to lower rates once again ... and to halt quantitative tightening (reducing the money supply). Is the Fed doing too little, too late?

And I am sure that there are other schemes being concocted inside the DNC to shoot our economy in the head ... or at least in the leg. Even though many of the poobahs on Wall Street are liberals, they still like money better ... and there have been times where a falling stock market led the economy down. So if they can nudge the economy down by shorting the stock market, they might just do it. However, they also need to worry about a low-probability whiplash caused by a breakthrough in the trade war. There is a limit to this type of economic manipulation.

We’re all in for an exciting 15-month roller coaster ride. Stay buckled in!

Triple Whammy

The US economy seems to be doing quite well at the moment, historically low unemployment, blowout durable goods orders and an upwardly revised 2019 GDP estimates by the IMF. And it seems that at least one Fed rate cut this year is now baked into the cake. Next, the Democrats do what they invariably do (they can’t help themselves) ... they negotiated with the White House fire-house federal spending increases next year in exchange for raising the debt ceiling for two years (until after the next presidential election). Do they not realize that this is fiscal stimulus in an election year? And this will do nothing but help the president’s economic braggadocios?

If China has any smarts, it will realize that fiscal stimulus on top of monetary stimulus will mean that it would be best to cut a trade deal with Trump before he gets re-elected for the best terms possible. And, if it does so capitulate, this will be a a triple economic whammy ... one which could easily drive US GNP growth to over 5% — almost an unimaginable number for the world’s biggest economy!

Now, dear reader do you understand why America’s stock market keeps making new highs day after day?

Headlines

D.C. mayor slams Trump ‘s Fourth of July celebration

Trump tells Iran threats ‘can come back to bite you’ in nuclear standoff

DOJ ordered to find ways to include citizenship question on census

WSJ: Nike’s ‘patriotic fumble’ a ‘donation to Trimp’s re-election’

Most top military chiefs skip Trump’s Fourth of July fest

Trump’s latest Fed moves are another attempt to take control of interest rates

Ruth Bader Ginsburg praises Kavanaugh ...

Ilhan Omar: ‘I don’t know’ if any2020 Democrat can beat Trump

‘We have a predator living in the White House’: Harris sharpens attack’s on Trump

Federal appeals court says Amazon is libel for third-party sellers’ products

STOCKS ROAR TO RECORD HIGHS ...

CNN death spiral continues with double digit Q2 ratings collapse