Out of Sorts

With the pandemic, resulting economic swoon and widespread civil unrest, people are currently feeling all out of sorts ... and this doesn’t bode well for re-electing the party in power ... since incumbents often carry the blame for such problems. Will voters therefore throw the Republicans out of office in November?

The answer to this vital question depends on if it is a “head” or “heart” election. In other words if emotion carries the day, the Orangeman and his posse are toast. If somehow logic prevails ... a realization that Biden is not the solution to all this distresses, then the Republicans have a chance ... a slim chance ... but nevertheless a chance.

How might this minor miracle happen again? Well, a vaccine for the coronavirus would help. And some good employment numbers in the current quarter. And finally, some oil on the civil unrest waters ... maybe some high-profile arrests of anarchists? All would sooth voter dyspepsia ... and not force Trump back to Mar-a-Largo.

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Headlines

‘Rigged election’ goes from Trump complaint to campaign strategy

CDC warns Congress of ‘significant public health consequences’ if schools don’t reopen

The never-ending Flynn case drags on

Diane Feinstein: China is ‘growing into a respectable nation’

Stephen Miller: Obama’s comments at Lewis funeral ‘totally disconnected from reality’

Coronavirus live updates: U.S. cases jump by 67,000, Sanofi, GSK nab $2.1 billion in vaccine deal

FBI audit finds 2 errors in 29 FISA applications — Carter Page’s alone had 17 omissions

Fauci: ‘I don’t think we need to go to lockdown again’

Eurozone economy shrinks by record 12.1 percent in second quarter

Earnings at halfway mark are much better than expected

Federal grand jury indicts Tenn. Dem senator who allegedly embezzled  $600k

Donald Tump suggests delaying 2020 election

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Contact Tracing

There have been close to a million diagnosed cases on COVID-19 in the United States ... and four antibody studies suggest that the real number of those infected might be as much as 14 to 50 times this number.

So, are we going to be able to contact trace at least 14 million Americans and then to the contacts so mentioned (5+)? I kinda doubt it. Just the number of those performing this contact tracing would be in the hundreds of thousands. Hiring and training this small army would take months, if not years.

Is this not just another red herring thrown into this process by those who put their politics ahead of our economy?

Headlines

Trump’s top health officials predict diminished coronavirus death toll

Coronavirus live update: MLB may play all games in Arizona, USNS Comfort crew member tests positive

Food bank line stretching miles in Florida ...

CDC Director: Death toll will be ‘much, much, much lower’ than predicted

Biden : ‘We cannot delay’ November’s general election

New York coronavirus deaths jumped by 731 Monday, the single-biggest daily increase, Gov. Cuomo says

More than half of Chicago’s cases are African-American ...

Harry and Meghan plan U.S. non-profit amid coronavirus pandemic

Kudlow leaves door open for more small-business funding

JP Morgan’s market guru, who called the rebound, sees ‘limited reopening’ of the economy soon

Poll: 73% say Trump should wear mask ...

Peter Navarro memo in late January warned of coronavirus

Headlines

Trump administration tells states to step up as governors plea for aid

Bill Gates calls coronavirus a ‘nightmare scenerio,’ but predicts lower death toll than Trump

USA records 1,497 deaths in 24 hours ...

Larry David says Bernie Sanders should drop out

Surgeon General warns this week ‘Is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment’

Coronavirus live updates: Bullard says economy’s not in ‘free fall,’

NYC subway cars remain packed ...

Trump thinking of second coronavirus task force on reopening country

Biden: ‘I will wear a mask in public’

New Yorkers salute front-line workers

Barr orders release of more federal inmates ...

Indian official: Mosque urged mob to manhandle health workers

Today’s Poser

If Trump is such an unrepentant prevaricator, is he also lying to America when he says that we are at war with this invisible enemy, COVID-19 ... and that our worst two weeks are just ahead? Or, does he lie only when he is upbeat and saying we will overcome this scourge, the China virus ... and that we need to restart our economy?

In other words, does he lie just when he is optimistic? Yes? Curious!

Rash Prediction

President Trump will restart, at least partially, the economy in the week following Easter.

Headlines

Republicans suddenly find a bailout they can back

Coronavirus live update: Japanese flu drug could be effective treatment, Scotland to close schools

Mnuchin warns jobless rate could hit 20% ...

Utah: 5.7 mag earthquake

Surgeon General: 15 days of social distancing ‘likely not going to be enough’ to shalt coronavirus

Coronavirus lives for hours in air particles and days on surfaces, new study shows

People with type A blood more likely to catch [coronavirus]?

Italy death toll rises 16% in 24 hours

Iraqi officials say rockets strike Baghdad’s Green Zone

Rates rapidly reverse higher on growing costs to combat crisis, 10-year Treasury yield hits 1.2%

Dreadful choice for global leaders: Wreck economy or kill millions

Hungary declares successful isolation of coronavirus

Trump in Davos

Trump’s impeachment trial has pushed real news out of the public square. However, President Trump yesterday lectured the elite world on US ecological and economic successes in Davos, Switzerland and showed the world that there is another way to deal with the doomsayers ... see: Trump in Davos. 

Some of these tree-hugging plutocrats might have just been listening.

Reconciliation

If Trump keeps winning ... on trade, on employment, on the economy, on immigration,  on NATO, on the climate, on Russia, on Hong Kong, on the stock market, on impeachment(?) ... then there will be an even greater divide ... between the never-Trumpers and those of sound mind.

The problem persists: How do we bring these two factions back together? I have a suggestion ... we need to have a month of reconciliation! Maybe it’ll take a year? Anyway, during this period, the progressives will be given a chance to confess their sins to AG Barr ... wire tapping, phony dossiers, cut-outs, pay-for-play foundations, voter fraud, political dirty tricks, set-ups of naive campaigners, perjury, spying on political opponents, destruction of incriminating evidence (like 33,000 emails), soliciting graft, selling 20% of US ‘s uranium to the Ruskies ... maybe some out-of-statute-of-limitations Arkancides.

Then, after all these reconciliation confessions have taken place, the DOJ can drop the hammer on all these reprobates.

Headlines

U.S., Mexico resolve differences in USMCA talks

Warren’s antitrust bill would dramatically boost government control over biggest US companies

Six other [Saudis] arrested; filmed attack ...

Trump backs down on designating Mexican cartels as terrorists

DeVos orders partial loan relief for many duped student borrowers

It’s possible US economy is not just ‘late cycle’ but rather just recharging

Kudlow claims Dec 15 ‘important [China trade deal] date ...

Pope Francis compares Trump to murderous King Herod

Hostilities between Warren and Buttigieg boil over

Managing China is NATO’s biggest challenge yet

Release of Trump banking records delayed by Ruth Bader Ginsburg ...

Trump Science Advisor Will Harper: Global warming is a ‘scam’

Headlines

Buttigieg has a serious Latino problem too

Stocks rise for a forth day in a row, hit record highs

Great getaway ... record 55 million travel for Thanksgiving

Politico: Obama ‘skeptical’ of Buttigieg and most other Dem candidates

Judge delays Flynn sentencing to wait for Russia IG report

Economy is growing better than economists had expected just a few weeks ago

GDP 2.1% ... But Fed pumps $108.95 billion more into markets ...

Mexico calls for meeting over Trump’s cartel terrorism designation

Poll: Biden remains atop Democrat field, as Warren slips

Bloomberg is crushing all 2020 Democrats with his ad spending in Super Tuesday states

Iran, Russia, China to hold joint war games in ‘message to world’ ...

Sen. Blumenthal: Lindsey Graham will ‘regret’ investigating Biden

The Truth

President Trump has been very effectively painted by the media as a serial liar (something like 13,000 lies since he took office) ... when, in fact, he is possibly the greatest truth-telling politician of our lifetimes. That is why he is president and has such adoring crowds. It is the media liars who refuse to recognize this truth (and his truths.)

Here are a few of Trump’s truths:

- American leaders have allowed China to steal us blind over the last 30 years

- The American economy could be a lot better

- The US needs to have the best military in the world

- Our judicial system too often creates laws, does not interpret laws

- Many European allies have stepped back and let the U.S. carry the majority of the responsibility for keeping the world safe

- The United States will never be a Socialist country

- Spending our treasure and the lives of our youth to “fix” other nations is foolish

- Global warming is a gigantic scam

- Washington is a swamp filled with too many self-serving and often dishonest bureaucrats

- Republican campaign colluding with Russia was a media/Deep State attempted cabal

- Russia under Putin is a bad actor ... but it can be useful in countering China and the radical Muslim threats

- Nations without borders are not nations

- Patriotism and respect for our flag is not a sin

- Much of our media dispenses “fake news” shaped by Liberal politics

- Immigration, even large immigration, is good only if controlled and selective

- Iran and North Korea are dangerous enemies and need to be put in a box

- There are a number of other despotic nation’s around the world which are not our friends but, nonetheless, need to be dealt with so that they don’t become our enemies

- Israel and Great Britain are our closest natural friends and need to be treated as such

- The UN is a very expensive, yet ineffective “world government”

- Liberal-run cities ate generally failing their citizens

- Blacks and Latinos have been ill-served by their Democrat masters

ENOUGH?

Snobbery

The base-line reason for all the spittle-flecked aversion to Donald J. Trump as our president is, let’s be frank, snobbery. The elites on both US coasts cannot abide that Americans in fly-over country have gained the upper hand ... and no longer accept their self-serving decisions on immigration, trade, energy, race relations, managing our economy and foreign affairs. This upstart Trump knows not of the way things are supposed to be ... and so he, along with his long ties and orange hair, needs to go back to reality TV and let his betters run things ... back to the way they used to be ... when they got the cake and middle America got the crumbs.

Semantic Pirouettes

Representative Elijah Cummings was on This Week with George Stephanopolous today and was asked if Trump was a racist. He answered “Yes” ...  then a few minutes later said, “I never call anybody a racists.”  Is this not a semantic pirouette?

Democrats swear they are not against open bothers ... then turn around an claim that illegal aliens are not illegal, border agents and ICE are Nazis and should be abolished, advocate sanctuary cities/states, decry a border wall as immoral and want to provide free healthcare to all illegal aliens. They must think we are really stupid! Democrats are full-bore for open borders ... which, combined with a welfare state, is national suicide.

Is the Democrats’ incessant drumbeat of calling Trump a racist because they are concerned with losing more minority voters in .2020? I think so. President Trump has been a very good friend to minorities with his economic, prison reform and development zones ... meaning he should do better next time ... unless this echoing term “racist” sticks. I doubt it will for no other reason than Democrats are so over turning their pirouettes.

Liberals always have a insidious way of disparaging their opposition. But they seldom know when to stop.

A Is for Angst

Angst — may well be the emotion that breeds much of the Trump-derangement feelings that infects our news media and, seemingly, half of the world  ... and causes instability in otherwise stable people (Mitt Romney?) President Donald Trump is unconventional to a fair-thee-well. When expected to do “A” he does  “B” and drives observers nuts. These people experience such strong anxiety over this unconventional behavior that it makes them angry. “Why can’t this man do what he is supposed to do?”

I’m certain that this quirky behavior drove his parents to pack him off to military school when he was young. Didn’t help. He thrived there (see: Washington Post Article) and this apparently set this behavior in concrete. After college he defied his father once again when he moved his family’s real estate operations to Manhattan and was a roaring success ... with some monumental setbacks .. but, in the end, he prevailed. And this told him that he should follow his gut ... which he has ever since done ... for better or worse.

We know why and who hates The Donald, So, who likes this man? For one, they must have a high tolerance for ambiguity. For two, they must believe that Trump has their best interest at heart. And for three, they must have confidence that this man can keep pulling rabbits out of his hat. His performance on the economy so far reinforces this confidence ... as does his survival of the Mueller witch-hunt. And the more the Democrats chew on this impeachment bone, the better he looks.

I can’t really say I “love” Trump, but I have bought into his agenda and admire his spunk. I believe he has shaken this country out of its winning-the-Cold-War-stupor, our anti-terrorism frenzy ... and made us realize that we were ignoring many serious problems. For this alone he deserves a marble monument. He probably won’t win all his current battles ... after all, half the world is biting at his heels. But he is likely to prevail in enough of them that Americans can wipe that big “L” off of our foreheads and get on with rebuilding our nation into what our destiny has manifested.

Fed by the Fed

“Don’t fight the Fed.” — Old Wall Street advice

The Federal Reserve Bank can have a key role in elections. When the Fed raises interest rates it slows down the economy and a slowing economy can have an adverse effect at the polls for the incumbent. George H.W. Bush blamed the Fed under Alan Greenspan for costing him his re-election in1992.

And Donald Trump is well aware of this correlation ... and so has been challenging the Fed chairman he appointed, Jerome Powell, to help him out in next year’s election. For the last nine months Trump has been cajoling Powell to stop raising rates and start cutting them. This pressure has had some effect. Last December the Fed was expected to raise rates for the six straight time under Trump ... causing the December stock market swoon. At that time the interest rate futures market was also expecting at least three Fed rate increases in 2019.

When Powell indicated in late December that these assumptions were wrong, the market had a dramatic turn-around and has been on a tear ever since. During this short period, the 10-year government bond has dropped almost 1.5 percentage points to near 2%. This is quite a dramatic move and has caused one other major event ...

China has been playing the rope-a-dope on tariffs expecting that the previous high rates combined with the economic impact of its tariff war with the U.S. would undermine Trump’s 2020 chances. However, recent events suggest Xi is rethinking this tactic. Trump and Xi agreed today that they would indeed meet at the G-20 summit in July to further their tariff discussions. This, to me, suggests that Beijing now believes that Trump is here to stay for 5 1/2 more years ... and that they better cut a deal while they can. Many companies are relocating their manufacturing out of China and, despite what its phony statistics say, it economy may actually be contracting. If so, Trump has them, with Powell’s help, by the short hairs ... and I think he now knows it.

This change in tariff-agreement expectations is enhanced by China’s partial capitulation toward the Hong Kong demonstrations and Xi’s upcoming visit to North Korea ... where I expect he will pressure Kim to cut a nuke deal with Trump.

I know it is dangerous to celebrate too early ... but I am getting out my pom-poms. If China and North Korea soon come around toTrmp’s way, I will be even more sure of Trump’s re-election.

Headlines

Trump smashed months of FBI work to thwart election interference

A Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse

Ronan Farrow blasts media crowd: I see liars ...

House to hold hearings on slavery reparations

U.S. says Iran removed I exploded mine from oil tanker

Iran says US has no ‘shred of factual or circumstantial evidence’ that Tehran attacked oil tankers

Dershowitz backs Biden for 2020 ...

House Intel committee subpoenas Michael Flynn

Federal agency recommends that Kellyanne Conway be removed from service

Elizabeth Warren will introduce bill to cancel student debt for most borrowers

Huckabee Sanders steps down ...

2020 poll: Millionaires prefer Biden over Trump

Headlines

Virginia’s NCAA-winning basketball team declines White House invitation

Amid criticism Xi says Belt and Road project can be ‘shared by the world’

So far: 39 miles of fresh border barrier ...

Schiff: If we don’t impeach, it says Trump’s conduct isn’t impeachable

Buttigieg renounces lobbyist donations, refunding over $30,000

Biden reports $6.3 million 1-day haul, biggest in 2020 field

Winter storm to dump snow on millions this weekend ...

U.S. economy grew 3.2% in first quarter, beating expectations

Senate GOP lags Dems in battle for online cash

Elon Musk makes deal with SEC not to discuss Tesla’s finances without a lawyer’s approval

Rasmussen: Trump 44%, Mayor Pete 40% ...

Chamber of Commerce demands more immigration: ‘U.S. is out of people’

Headlines

Trump’s economy defies doubters

Amazon smashes earnings expectations

[Biden] Hires key Sanders aide — who donated to Buttigieg ...

Michael Avenati endorses Joe Biden for president

Biden goes to the dark side in launch video

Xi tells world leaders he’s committed to reforming China, but provides few details

Trump’s offshore drilling plan sidelined indefinitely ...

Feds charge sanctuary city judge with obstruction of justice

Sanders heckled at presidential forum for women

Trump reportedly approved a $2 million hospital bill from North Korea for Otto Warmbier

Gallup: Americans most stressed in world ...

Brexit party reveals West minister ambitions, more candidates