Herd Immunity Update

Unlike Sleepy Joe, I will try, in the following post, to keep my decimal points in the right place.

Now, the World Health Organization has recently estimated that 10% of the world’s population has been exposed to Covid-19 (see: MSN Story) ... that’s about 730 million people! If we compare this to the World Meters actual reported numbers, roughly 36 million, we quickly realize that WHO is estimating the worldwide multiplier between asymptomatic to symptomatic cases is almost 20X.

If this multiplier be true (hate to rely on WHO) and applies to the U.S., then total Covid cases (asymptomatic+symptomatic) cases here might easily approximate 160 million (20x the 8 million that have  been reported to date). Now, stay tuned kind readers ... this is damn close to 50% of our American population (330 million).

Finally, herd immunity is generally estimated at 50-60% ... so we are also getting damn close to herd immunity (a vaccine should put us over the top) ... the place where we should see a dramatic drop-off in our Covid infection rates ... and may well have achieved it in places like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey already ... where current new-case statistics seem to confirm this possibility.

Have I made your day a little brighter?


Afterward ... see: Politico Article

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Obvious Truth

NY Go. Andrew Cuomo

The most dangerous politicians are those who are likable ... with good communication skills ... yet have not even a modicum of common sense. — Anon.


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Herd Immunity

Is herd immunity the only real solution to the increasing infection rate of the COVID-19 pandemic? Well many epideniologists think so ... and I am beginning to agree. The current hot spots in the USA are Florida, Texas and California ... replacing New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, all three of which might be approaching some sort of plateau in daily new cases ... each generating only a few hundred cases per day while the hot spots are in the thousands. (There are other states that could be placed in each group ... only to complicate things ... so we will ignore them here.)

To normalize things between these states we will look at new daily cases per million of population ... see: World Meters. Here they are today:

                                Total

                     Cases per 1 million

New York               22,843

New Jersey             21,128

Massachusetts       17,064

Florida                    22,350

Texas                      15,315

California               12,799

Total USA              14,351

As been demonstrated in various blood tests for this virus’ antibodies, the number of asymptomatic cases can be as much as twenty or more times diagnoses cases. Therefore we can see from the above that New York, New Jersey and Florida might really have as many as 400,000 cases per million (40%) of population. Now, herd immunity is estimated to be achieved at 50-60% ... so, we might be getting close to herd immunity in these three states. (Maybe why these states, excepting the special case Florida might be slowing down.) And Texas, California and Massachusetts still have a way to go ... as does the overall USA. (Caveat: our much more extensive testing now might have reduced this multiplier between asymptomatic and diagnosed cases to well below 20.)

(We are not dealing with coronavirus death rates here because therapeutics have gotten a whole lot better ... and we have also learned to concentrate mitigation efforts on nursing homes. Texas, California and Florida are still doing worlds better than the other three on this count.)

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Headlines

Black Americans arming themselves in response to pandemic, protests

Kudlow says coronavirus relief will include $1,200 checks and extension of  eviction moratorium

Seattle has moved from “Defund the police” to “Abolish prisons”

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Bass: Supporters will rally to Biden despite ‘94 crime bill

Florida has more coronavirus cases than New York and California leads the nation

Armed protester shot dead after confrontation at BLM rally in Texas

McCarthy: Dems have a China problem

Poll: Support of Trump’s handling of coronavirus pandemic hits new low

Regis Philbin, longtime television personality, dies at 88

Seattle police chief to local businesses: You’re on your own

L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti denies that Portland protests are violent

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Scaredy Cats

President Trump recently “joked” about the best way to reduce the number of new coronavirus cases would be to reduce virus testing. There is no doubt that our testing has expanded almost ten-fold since our last pandemic peak in April. However, the number of new cases are only roughly twice what they were in April. This comparison has a wrinkle ... tests for antibodies done back then ... in two places in California and one in New York State suggested the real (asymptomatic) cases were 10 to even 40 times higher (pick 10) ... which, given our testing capability back then, our April peak could have been, in reality, as much as five times higher (10/2) than our current peak. In other words, our current “Covid spike” is a convenient fiction ... being used for political advantage.

This possible conclusion is borne out by also looking at coronavirus deaths during the same period (see:Washington Post Numbers) which are down to a third of what they were back then. Thus, new deaths are better relative to new case by a factor of 6 (down by 3 x up by 2). Now we have better virus treatments that should account for some of this difference ... but, there seems no doubt that most of the increase in new cases today can be attributed to better and more extensive testing  ... now totaling over 48 million ... the best in the world (other than China’s questionable numbers). And it should thus be the number of new deaths ... not the number of new cases ... that should be the better metric when measuring progress in combating this pandemic.

But why might Trump suggest, even in jest, that testing should be reduced? Because the Democrats and their media pals are focusing on the current fallacious “spike” in new cases to panic states into re-closing their economies and not opening their schools ... both of which would dampen Trump’s re-election chances in November.

Human nature being what it is ... if enough scaredy cats believe that President Trump’s policies are putting them at greater risk, they will be less inclined to keep him in office ... even though he might be doing what is right for our country. What is that old saw? “Perception is reality.”

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Know-Nothings

I guess I don’t and will never understand people who are proud about what they don’t know. If I get caught in an information hole, I am embarrassed and try to fill it back up. 

These “know-nothings” don’t watch FoxNews. Some will not read the New York Times. Others don’t want to know any details about Obamagate. Too many won’t follow the debate about climate change ... they just know that it’s going to burn us alive. I myself even resent my wife’s subscribing online to that rag of a newspaper, the Boston Globe ... but I do chuckle when she reads me its dellusional stories.

People’s information tastes are fickled ... and often driven by fads and cocktail party conversation. However, wearing ignorance as a badge of honor has me baffled.

Afterward ... read: Bari Weiss leaves the NYT.

Last of the Key Comparisons

I think that this might be my last post on this issue for a while ... as it seems things may be settling down.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 22, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/22/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        59,154
Sweden                   29,291
Norway                  46,553
Italy                        66,970
South Korea           19,330
Germany                51,917

California               55,240
Massachusetts        97,161
New York             117,908
Florida                    51,586

                   Cases per million
USA                         5,817
Sweden                    4,149
Norway                    1,570
Italy                          3,870
South Korea                230
Germany                  2,208

California                  3,111
Massachusetts        14,808
New York                19,704
Florida                      2,802

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           383
Sweden                      452
Norway                        44
Italy                           567
South Korea                  5
Germany                    104

California                   113
Massachusetts         1,045
New York                 1,557
Florida                        122

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Newest Key Comparisons

I guess I’ll be doing this post every week for a while.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 22, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/22/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        40,768
Sweden                   20,798
Norway                  41,178
Italy                        53,635
South Korea           15,653
Germany                 42,923

California               36,742
Massachusetts       72,758
New York               80,066
Florida                    37,973

                   Cases per million
USA                         4,904
Sweden                    3,251
Norway                    1,534
Italy                          3,770
South Korea                217
Germany                  2,139

California                  2,239
Massachusetts         13,070
New York                18,832
Florida                      2,266

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           291
Sweden                      389
Norway                       43
Italy                           537
South Korea                 5
Germany                     89

California                     92
Massachusetts            892
New York                 1,485
Florida                        100

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

As another metric here is an interesting comparison. (I forgot where I found it.) I think it is a little dated and does not reconciled it with the above numbers ... but looks close:

Revealing

From daily timewaster blog

Mortality rates are too small by 1,000 ... except NY, by 100.

Latest Key Comparisons

I guess I’ll be doing this post every week for a while.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 15, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/15/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        32,166
Sweden                   17,590
Norway                  39,266
Italy                        46,426
South Korea           14,177
Germany                 37,585

California               27,957
Massachusetts       61,568
New York               67,035
Florida                    28,382

                   Cases per million
USA                         4,407
Sweden                    2,832
Norway                    1,513
Italy                          3,689
South Korea                215
Germany                  2,089

California                  1,897
Massachusetts        11,923
New York                18,155
Florida                      2,012

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           263
Sweden                      350
Norway                       43
Italy                           519
South Korea                 5
Germany                     95

California                     77
Massachusetts           795
New York                 1,410
Florida                          87

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Updated Key Comparisons

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 8, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/8/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        25, 119
Sweden                   14,704
Norway                  34,406t
Italy                        33,385
South Korea           12,773
Germany                 32,891

California               21,530
Massachusetts       51,482
New York               55,556
Florida                    24,035

                   Cases per million
USA                         3,906
Sweden                    2,438
Norway                    1,482
Italy                          3,570
South Korea                211
Germany                  2,022

California                  1,596
Massachusetts        10,793
New York                17,199
Florida                      1,885

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           232
Sweden                      301
Norway                       40
Italy                           495
South Korea                 5
Germany                     88

California                     65
Massachusetts           665
New York                 1,344
Florida                          78    

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Headlines

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US. deaths 65,298 ...

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Coronavirus live update: Antibody study estimates 12% of New Yorkers have had virus

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Colorado governor defends move to reopen

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China put pressure on the EU to soften coronavirus disinformation report

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Belgium to begin relaxing coronavirus restrictions May 4

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Alarming number of Americans believe vaccine exists and is being withheld ...

Donald Trump does not owe millions to Bank of China

Herd Immunity

I have learned not to trust any of the data points surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic ... so, dear reader, understand what you will now read might be hokum ... not as much hokum involved in the Irani and Chinese virus statistics ... but nonetheless somewhat suspect.

So let’s dive in. Stanford University has completed an antibody study of 3,300 volunteers (unfortunately not randomized) in Santa Clara County, California (in the heart of Silicon Valley) and the results are mind blowing. This study found that the number of people that had antibodies to this virus was between 48 and 82 times the number that actually had been reported to have been infected with COVID-19. Wow!

So before we go any further, read the following: Newsweek Article.

This study also reveals that the actual infection rate as a proportion of this particular population currently is between 2.5% and 4.5% ... clearly not high enough to achieve herd immunity there. However, let’s look at New York State where the latest reported case count is about 250,000. If the actual case count is 48 times higher (the lower multiplier in the above-reported rage) then the actual New York number (including asymptomatics) would be 12 million in the state versus an estimated population of 19.44 million ... or 62% ... zeroing in on a herd immunity percentage of between 65% and 80% (quoting Dr. Oz) ... particularly if one focuses in on the greater New York City area.

If the number of new cases in the greater NYC area falls off a cliff in the next week or two, I think we will be able to conclude that this area has achieved a semblance of herd immunity and that there was some validity to the Stanford study.

But why there is such a disparity between the COVID-19 infection rate tn California versus New York will still be a mystery.

Headlines

Trump administration tells states to step up as governors plea for aid

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USA records 1,497 deaths in 24 hours ...

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Surgeon General warns this week ‘Is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment’

Coronavirus live updates: Bullard says economy’s not in ‘free fall,’

NYC subway cars remain packed ...

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Biden: ‘I will wear a mask in public’

New Yorkers salute front-line workers

Barr orders release of more federal inmates ...

Indian official: Mosque urged mob to manhandle health workers

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Desperate and angry state leaders push back on Trump admin claims of mass mask shipments

Coronavirus live updates’ Pelosi signals disagreement on massive relief package

Doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 ...

Virus rebels from France to Florida flout lockdown practices

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Financing programs for businesses hit by coronavirus could amount to $4 trillion, Mnuchin says

[Coronavirus cases] Could peak in 30 days ...

Left to MSM: Stop airing Trump live: ‘You will get people killed’

De Blasio asks Trump to send military to New York

New York state has more coronavirus cases than France or South Korea, as infections soar to 15,168

LA gives up on containing ...

Trump admin: No plan for nat’l lockdown

Headlines

Fauci to Americans abroad, ‘You will be able to get back’

Coronavirus updates: New York governor wants Trump to mobilize army, NYC mayor calls outbreak ‘war’

Bank in midtown [Manhattan] cleaned out of $100 bills ...

WSJ/NBC poll: Trump approval unchanged in coronavirus outbreak

Top U.S. health official: China’s situation is improving

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin does not expect recession from coronavirus

S&P 500 had choppiest week since Hoover was president ...

Fauci: Hundreds of thousands could die in outbreak

Iran says worsening outbreak could strain its health facilities

Nike is closing all its stores in the US because of the coronavirus outbreak

Mnuchin vows to keep markets open ...

Trump assembles government and private industry to fight coronavirus

Headlines

De Blasio claims Biden hasn’t been vetted

Mortgage bankers double their 2020 refinance forecasts

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Trump announces financial assistance for those impacted by coronavirus

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Coronavirus live update: First NJ death/ NY containment  zone/ Dow whipsaws

Biden loses cool in Detroit: ‘You’re full of sh*t’ ...

Poll: Romney more popular with Democrats than Republicans

‘I can do it in seven minutes’: Bernie knocks Biden over short speeches

El-Erian: Stock market bottom is not in yet, despite the bounce after Monday’s historic decline

Bernie: Real Socialism has never been tried ...

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