Herd Immunity Update

Unlike Sleepy Joe, I will try, in the following post, to keep my decimal points in the right place.

Now, the World Health Organization has recently estimated that 10% of the world’s population has been exposed to Covid-19 (see: MSN Story) ... that’s about 730 million people! If we compare this to the World Meters actual reported numbers, roughly 36 million, we quickly realize that WHO is estimating the worldwide multiplier between asymptomatic to symptomatic cases is almost 20X.

If this multiplier be true (hate to rely on WHO) and applies to the U.S., then total Covid cases (asymptomatic+symptomatic) cases here might easily approximate 160 million (20x the 8 million that have  been reported to date). Now, stay tuned kind readers ... this is damn close to 50% of our American population (330 million).

Finally, herd immunity is generally estimated at 50-60% ... so we are also getting damn close to herd immunity (a vaccine should put us over the top) ... the place where we should see a dramatic drop-off in our Covid infection rates ... and may well have achieved it in places like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey already ... where current new-case statistics seem to confirm this possibility.

Have I made your day a little brighter?


Afterward ... see: Politico Article

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Headlines

First she renovated the Rose Garden. Then Melania spruced up her husband.

CDC quietly revises guidance on coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people

Jacob Blake’s mother denounces rioters

CNBC poll: Trump approval rising in battleground states

Lincoln Project co-founder predicts Trump will lose New Hampshire

U.S. core capital goods orders slow in July from prior month, while durable goods orders surge 11.2%

Crooked Hillary: In close race Biden ‘shouldn’t concede under any circumstances’

CNN Primetime: Biden needs to stop ignoring riots —- ‘This is blind spot for Democrats’

Kenosha police: 3 shot, 2 fatally, during Wisconsin protests

Hurricane Laura is now forecast to intensify to catastrophic Category 4 as it nears U.S. Gulf Coast

Taxes in New Jersey set to increase even more

Trafalgar Group poll: Trump leads Biden by one point in Wisconsin

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Herd Immunity

Is herd immunity the only real solution to the increasing infection rate of the COVID-19 pandemic? Well many epideniologists think so ... and I am beginning to agree. The current hot spots in the USA are Florida, Texas and California ... replacing New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, all three of which might be approaching some sort of plateau in daily new cases ... each generating only a few hundred cases per day while the hot spots are in the thousands. (There are other states that could be placed in each group ... only to complicate things ... so we will ignore them here.)

To normalize things between these states we will look at new daily cases per million of population ... see: World Meters. Here they are today:

                                Total

                     Cases per 1 million

New York               22,843

New Jersey             21,128

Massachusetts       17,064

Florida                    22,350

Texas                      15,315

California               12,799

Total USA              14,351

As been demonstrated in various blood tests for this virus’ antibodies, the number of asymptomatic cases can be as much as twenty or more times diagnoses cases. Therefore we can see from the above that New York, New Jersey and Florida might really have as many as 400,000 cases per million (40%) of population. Now, herd immunity is estimated to be achieved at 50-60% ... so, we might be getting close to herd immunity in these three states. (Maybe why these states, excepting the special case Florida might be slowing down.) And Texas, California and Massachusetts still have a way to go ... as does the overall USA. (Caveat: our much more extensive testing now might have reduced this multiplier between asymptomatic and diagnosed cases to well below 20.)

(We are not dealing with coronavirus death rates here because therapeutics have gotten a whole lot better ... and we have also learned to concentrate mitigation efforts on nursing homes. Texas, California and Florida are still doing worlds better than the other three on this count.)

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Headlines

Is Trump on track for an October vaccine surprise?

Mnuchin says plan for unemployment extension will be based on 70% wage replacement

New FBI notes re-debunk major NY Times story

Brexit talks: Trade deal ‘unlikely’ as British will not submit to EU demands

Portland mayor tear-gassed at protests by federal law enforcement

Mary Trump’s tell-all memoir sells1.5 million copies in blockbuster first week

El Chapo wants out of Supermax, citing coronavirus and poor conditions

Lawsuit: Former Cardinal McCarrick ran sex ring at New Jersey shore house

New unemployment gains rose last week to 1.4 million, ending months of declines

SEC Chair Clayton says he’s worried about short-term trading in stocks like Tesla

Tesla chooses Texas for location of new factory

John Cleese rips Cancel Culture: Emotionally unstable people setting the bar for what’s politically correct

Headlines

U.S. coronavirus cases pass 3 million

JP Morgan’s strategist Kolanovic sees new highs as hedge funds jump in

CDC might stop calling COVID an ‘epidemic’ because of major drop in mortality rate

New York Times publishes Socialist economic manifesto

Alex Vindman, key impeachment witness, retires from military

Trump threatens to cut funding for schools, slams CDC reopening guidelines as too tough, expensive

Tucker Carlson blasts ‘fraud’ Tammy Duckworth

Omar calls for dismantling of America’s economic and political systems

New Jersey to require face coverings while outdoors

New York Gov. Cuomo blasts Trump on school reopening: ‘It’s not up to the president’

Brooks Brothers files for bankruptcy

Shootings triple in Mayor de Blasio’s New York City

Headlines

Voters in deep-red Oklahoma weigh Medicaid expansion as virus cases soar

Top CEOs see business impact from coronavirus lingering through 2021

LOL, Iran issues arrest warrant for Trump over death of Soleimani

Supreme Court strikes down abortion safety law

Schumer, Pelosi to McConnell: Move on coronavirus relief

NY malls can’t open without air systems that filter coronavirus, Cuomo says

Oklahoma DA hits rioters with terrorism charges — ‘This is not Seattle’

New Jersey Democrats charged with mail-in voter fraud

House Dems propose strengthening Congress’ contempt powers to break administration’s stonewalls

Supreme Court leaves CFBP standing, but backs president’s ability to fire director

One dead and another critical after ANOTHER CHAZ/CHOP shooting

Over 60 shot, 16 killed, during weekend in Mayor Lightfoot’s Chicago

Correction

A while back I made a foray into the COVID-19 death statistics in the United States and suggested that they were being fudged to imply a surge in our deaths to match our surge in new cases ... see: Fake Stats.

Well, if you return to that Washington Post “Covid Deaths” graph of deaths in that link, you will now see why this “spike” in these numbers occurred. It seems that, in a footnote, WaPo now indicates that on June 25th over 1,800 deaths were added to this daily total by New Jersey ... and it looks like Delaware also slipped some extras in too. Anyway, this spike was obviously an outlier and only briefly interrupted the visible downward path of US COvID deaths.

However, we are not out of the woods yet as new virus deaths are supposed to lag new cases by two or three weeks ... so we still have a little time to wait to see if the opening of our economy might need to be slowed or reversed. I say this because a new case surge without a new death surge is not a huge problem ... something like the common cold ... not worthy of a new shutdown.

Sometime next week we should know for sure.

Headlines

Trump has a point about the polls

New Jersey could soon be the home of a major offshore wind port

U.K.’s Boris Johnson involved in car accident outside of Parliament

Report: Google financially blacklists ZeroHedge, threatens The Federalists over comment sections

DOJ to crack down on tech industry’s legal shield

Homebuyer mortgage demand spikes to 11-year high, as rates hit another record low

Minneapolis releases map showing extent of damage from riots — 700 buildings damaged or destroyed

Outrage after Democrats wear Kente cloth during moment of silence

California to remove Columbus statue from state Capitol after 137 years

Coronavirus updates: Target makes $15 minimum wage permanent, Google offers nonprofits aid grants

Battleground state voters back pause in immigration 2:1

Boston mayor backs removal of Lincoln; opposes renaming Faneuil Hall

Headlines

Coronavirus drives health insurers back to Obamacare

Coronavirus updates: Trump says military will distribute vaccine, CVS to offer drive-thru tests

Resentment builds as reopening rules apply to some, but not to others ...

Gretchen Whitmer lashes out at Michigander protesters,: lockdown ‘not optional’

Appeals court green lights emoluments suit against Trump

Dismal jobs report offered a sign that some people may be returning to work

Jobless claims total 36.5 million ...

Mayor Eric Garcetti: L.A. won’t completely reopen without virus ‘cure’

New Jersey may face $10B budget shortfall through FY 2021

Delta to retire Boeing 777’s as pandemic dims outlook for international travel

Judge asks whether Flynn should be held in contempt for perjury ...

Powell warns of a possible sustained recession from pandemic

Headlines

Schumer to introduce legislation to prevent Trump from signing stimulus checks

Supreme Court declines to rule on its first Second Amendment case in over a decade

Update: 1 in 4 NYC residents test positive for [coronavirus] antibodies ...

Nancy Pelosi endorses Joe Biden: ‘The personification of integrity’

5G arsonists turn up in continental Europe

Coronavirus live updates: Poll finds outsized impact in New Jersey, governor warns of ‘Armageddon’

Carnival Cruise bailout draws fire ...

Thousands of Californians flock to beaches despite stay-at-home order

Cuomo eyes construction, manufacturing for regional reopen in New York

Supreme Court suggests it is looking for a way out of Trump financial records case

Tyson: ‘The food supply chain is breaking’ ...

Murder, burglary and theft soar in NYC during coronavirus

Headlines

Trump demonstrates new point-of-care test

Coronavirus live updates: US coronavirus death toll higher than 9/11 attacks, airlines to consolidate routes

Virginia shut until June ...

CNN debates: No live pandemic pressers for bad orange man

Governor: New Jersey gin stores will be allowed to reopen

Goldman sees 15% jobless rate, 34% GDP decline, followed by fastest recovery in History

Whole Foods employees plan nationwide ‘sick out’ ...

Seattle: 3 homeless shelters closed due to outbreak

Pandemic threatens monster turnout in November

Consumer confidence tumbles in March as coronavirus cases surge

Hertz: China isolated deadly bat viruses at unsecured lab near Wuhan wild food market ...

Union: 2,000 U.S. postal worker in quarantine across U.S..

Headlines

‘It simply isn’t our time’: Julien Castro ends his presidential bid

‘First five days’ indicator, which has a solid track record at predicting year, off to good start

Bernie cash blowout ... Tops Dem field

Trump: Iran will pay ‘Very BIG PRICE’ for embassy attack

Trump warns Turkey’s Erdogan against military intervention in Libya

Amazon threatens to fire employees who speak out on climate change

Florida poised to surpass New York in congressional seats ...

Pope Francis apologizes for slapping woman’s hand

‘The game has changed’ : Defense secretary warns of defensive strikes on Iranian group

People couldn’t wait to leave New Jersey in 2019

Fed pumps [liquidity by] $56.72 billion ...

Joe Biden urges coal miners to ‘learn’ to code

Headlines

Negotiators have deal within sight in talks to avert shutdown

The rocket engine that Elon Musk wants to use to get to Mars just passed a key test

Late night hosts wore blackface, now avoid subject ...

New Jersey residents to be hit with ‘rain tax’

2020 Dems see danger in the Mueller probe

AAA confirms what electric car owners suspected — cold weather saps EV range

Schiff announces sweeping investigation into Trump finances, Russia ...

U.S. to purchase Iron Dome missile defense system from Israel

Democrats duck for cover as Virginia scandals pile up

China and Russia loaned billions to Venezuela. — and then the presidency went up for grabs

Mexico to send military to murder hot spots ...

... NOW calls on Justin Fairfax to resign

Headlines

GOP see new bomb scare victim: Trump

'It's Christmas in October' Avenatti vows to put Supreme Court's Kavanaugh 'on trial'

NATO shows military might in giant exercises ...

Poll: Republican Desantis takes lead over Socialist Gillum in Florida race

Democrats make another big ad buy for Menendez

Amazon drops on revenue and guidance miss

Venezuelan exiles turn to prostitution to feed families ...

Facebook censors ads with newborn and ultrasound photos

Trump's drug plan losing ground in healthcare messaging

Morgan Stanley: Markets begin to 'sniff out' Republican sweep in midterms

USA to send 800 more troops to Mexican border ...

Report: New Jersey GOP candidate received letter threatening his kids

Ebb Tide

The tide comes in. The tide goes out.

Yesterday, the Trump tide ebbed a bit when Democrats won the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey ... as well as a number of lesser posts in mainly blue states. This AM the lighting on "Morning Joe" has been dimmed to compensate for the ultra-white shine coming from the teeth of all the ear-to-ear smiling mouths.

I am far from a political pundit, but it is clear to me that the last two elections have been driven by negative emotions ... anti-Hillary and now anti-Trump. Just the fact that Salem, Massachusetts voted to become a sanctuary city indicates that those on the left are motivated enough to stick their thumbs in Trump's eye ... even if this means that they are doing damage at home. The constant anti-Trump drum beat from the lefty media is clearly working and this trend is likely to carry over to the mid-term elections next year ... particularly if the Republican Congress remains asleep at the switch.

By himself, Trump has accomplished much under the covers domestically ... and, much more obviously, internationally. The most public measure of these hidden wins has been the U.S. stock market -- up more than 20% in one year -- and surging consumer confidence. This equity inflation is unlikely to continue, particularly if Congress insists on being obstinate. In fact, lack of legislative tax reform could well cause the tide to go out on the stock market too ... which would knee-cap any hope of Republicans holding onto their Congressional advantages.

The Rat Test

The New York police are seeking Ahmad Khan Rahami in connection with the weekend bombings in New York City and nearby New Jersey. Now clearly the man is most likely a Muslim and also is surely known by dozens if not hundreds of other Muslims. If, as is professed by our current political leaders, the vast majority of Muslims are peace-loving and loyal Americans ... then we're now presented with an interesting test -- will Rahami's fellow Muslims rat him out ... or will they close ranks around him and become part of this terrorist conspiracy?

Yes, it seems quite probable that Rahami will be apprehended ... but what I will be watching for ... is how he is caught. Stay tuned ...

A Simple Solution

The Iranian nuclear talks have still not concluded with an agreement ... or an framework of an agreement ... or a framework of an understanding ... or even just a terse press release ... see: Yahoo News Story. Therefore may I offer a simple solution to this stalemate?

Just move the proceedings from the five-star Beau-Rivage Palace Hotel in Lausanne, Switzerland (see: Beau-Rivage-Palace-Lausanne) to the half-star Red Roof Inn in Paterson, New Jersey (catered by Pizza Hut). I think this would speed things up a tad.

Beanbag

I think it was the former and deceased Congressman from Massachusetts, Tip O'Neill, who famously said "Politics ain't beanbag." Now Democrat Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey is relearning this same lesson as he is apparently going to be indicted on criminal corruption charges as one of the last acts by our outgoing Attorney General, Eric Holder ... see: Reuters Story.

This clearly is a bit of political payback ... not that Senator Menedez is above reproach. He clearly is about as slimy as any Democrat politician (and a few Republicans) ... including his three possible junkets to the Dominican Republic to enjoy some hanky-panky with underage prostitutes ... all on the cuff of his friend and possible Medicare overcharger, Dr. Salomon Melgen ... see: Irony of Ironies...

However, Cuban-American Menendez's biggest mistake was vocally opposing the Obama administration on its Cuban and Iran policies. So Menedez is the one Democrat who is singled out for punishment ... not Charles Rangel, not Nancy Pelosi, not Al Sharpton, not Harry Reid, not Lois Lerner, not Hillary Clinton, etc. The only conclusion one can draw from this Menendez indictment ... it's OK today to be a reprobate as long as you toe the Democrat party line.

I guess we all knew this ... it is just depressing to see it unfold once again.

The Enigma

Governor Chris Christie is an enigma to me.  He probably is as thuggish as President Obama or the Clinton's … he is from New Jersey after all.  As an example, I do suspect he purposely zinged Mitt Romney right before the last presidential election with his bear hug of Obama  … possibly as retribution for not being picked as Mitt's Vice Presidential running mate. And this had a lot to do with Romney losing the election. I also think that he is more involved in the bridge-gate dust-up than he lets on.  And moreover I believe that, when he was being vetted him for the Vice Presidential slot, Romney’s people found more skeletons in Christie’s closet.  These are bound to eventually come out.

But then again, the man thinks mostly good conservative thoughts and communicates these thoughts well.  He recently spoke to an Economic Club of Chicago gathering in which he convincingly debunked the recent Democrats’ gnashing of teeth over "income inequality." Quoting from the New York Times he said:

The problem is that Americans do not want income equality, suggesting that it is antithetical to the country’s abiding belief in “income opportunity” that rewards hard work and merit. “You want income equality? That is mediocrity,” he said. “Everybody can have an equal, mediocre salary.”

You can see the previous quote in the following Times article, but you need to slog through a number of brickbats first … see: NY Times Article.  (Funny how quickly the Times turned on Christie once Hillary was the presumptive Democrat nominee in 2016.)  I did see Christie deliver these ideas on television and he was quite convincing … dead on … something that the far left needs to worry about if they are going to continue flexing their Socialist muscles over this issue.

There will be a lot of back and forth with this Christie fellow over the next three years.  I don’t think he has a chance of being President … but, if he wanted to, he could serve an enormously useful function in the upcoming election.  He could be the Republicans’ junk-yard dog … popping all of the left’s pomposities as they raise their poll-tested syrupy heads … kind-of like the James Carville of the right.  Then maybe, if the Republicans can regain the White House, he might be rewarded with some useful administrative post … say Chief of Staff or Congressional Liaison?

He, like he has done in New Jersey, could help fix things.

Hard Ball

Am I nuts, but does it seem that there is an all-out effort to get conservatives in legal hot water?  We all know of Governor Chris Christie’s troubles in New Jersey.  And former Virginia Governor, Bob McDonnell, is now under federal indictment … see: Washington Post Article … it seems mostly due to his wife’s misdeeds. 

Suddenly, conservative author and filmmaker, Dinesh D’Souza, is under federal indictment for violating federal campaign finance laws … see: Hollywood Reporter Story.  Next conservative activists, James O’Keefe (remember those revealing Acorn videos?), has been targeted by New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, with subpoenas and document requests … see: Fox News Story.

And this is just on the legal front.  New York City Mayor, Bill DeBlasio, apparently just held back plowing the snow from the areas of the city that didn’t vote for him … see: NY Daily New Article.  (How is this any different from closing down three toll booths on the George Washington Bridge?) And a chin-out Governor Cuomo has also invited anyone opposed to abortion to leave New York State … see: National Review Story.

It is quite disturbing to me to see the heavy hand of liberal government being used to try to cower conservative opponents … just as it would be disturbing if New Jersey Governor Christie was involved in the equivalent.  While many independents in this country are frustrated and calling for moderation, the bellicose libs seem to be ratcheting up the political wars.  The only difference is the brand of baseball being reported in the media … liberals get slow-pitch softball … conservatives are getting quite a parcel of fast-pitch hardball. 

What did former Obama Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, say, “If they bring a knife to a fight, you bring a gun?”