Herd Immunity Update

Unlike Sleepy Joe, I will try, in the following post, to keep my decimal points in the right place.

Now, the World Health Organization has recently estimated that 10% of the world’s population has been exposed to Covid-19 (see: MSN Story) ... that’s about 730 million people! If we compare this to the World Meters actual reported numbers, roughly 36 million, we quickly realize that WHO is estimating the worldwide multiplier between asymptomatic to symptomatic cases is almost 20X.

If this multiplier be true (hate to rely on WHO) and applies to the U.S., then total Covid cases (asymptomatic+symptomatic) cases here might easily approximate 160 million (20x the 8 million that have  been reported to date). Now, stay tuned kind readers ... this is damn close to 50% of our American population (330 million).

Finally, herd immunity is generally estimated at 50-60% ... so we are also getting damn close to herd immunity (a vaccine should put us over the top) ... the place where we should see a dramatic drop-off in our Covid infection rates ... and may well have achieved it in places like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey already ... where current new-case statistics seem to confirm this possibility.

Have I made your day a little brighter?


Afterward ... see: Politico Article

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Herd Immunity

Is herd immunity the only real solution to the increasing infection rate of the COVID-19 pandemic? Well many epideniologists think so ... and I am beginning to agree. The current hot spots in the USA are Florida, Texas and California ... replacing New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, all three of which might be approaching some sort of plateau in daily new cases ... each generating only a few hundred cases per day while the hot spots are in the thousands. (There are other states that could be placed in each group ... only to complicate things ... so we will ignore them here.)

To normalize things between these states we will look at new daily cases per million of population ... see: World Meters. Here they are today:

                                Total

                     Cases per 1 million

New York               22,843

New Jersey             21,128

Massachusetts       17,064

Florida                    22,350

Texas                      15,315

California               12,799

Total USA              14,351

As been demonstrated in various blood tests for this virus’ antibodies, the number of asymptomatic cases can be as much as twenty or more times diagnoses cases. Therefore we can see from the above that New York, New Jersey and Florida might really have as many as 400,000 cases per million (40%) of population. Now, herd immunity is estimated to be achieved at 50-60% ... so, we might be getting close to herd immunity in these three states. (Maybe why these states, excepting the special case Florida might be slowing down.) And Texas, California and Massachusetts still have a way to go ... as does the overall USA. (Caveat: our much more extensive testing now might have reduced this multiplier between asymptomatic and diagnosed cases to well below 20.)

(We are not dealing with coronavirus death rates here because therapeutics have gotten a whole lot better ... and we have also learned to concentrate mitigation efforts on nursing homes. Texas, California and Florida are still doing worlds better than the other three on this count.)

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Quotable Quotes

“Yes, America is burning, but that’s how [new] forests grow.” — Maura “Hold-it” Healey, Massachusetts AG

Antibody Study

Another antibody study (in Los Angeles) has been released that suggests that actual COVID-19 infections might be as much as 55 times higher than the diagnosed cases. This agrees with the recent Stanford study in Santa Clara that put the multiplier at between 48x and 82x ... see: Herd Immunity.

Now, New York State is performing its own antibody tests this week and, if its results also agree with these asymptomatic multipliers, we might not only be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but, at least on the major East Coast and Midwest areas of the US, we might be achieving herd immunity ... meaning we are almost out of the tunnel.

Let’s look at where I live ... Massachusetts. As of today, diagnosed cases here total almost 40,000. Multiplying this by 55 suggests we might have as many as 2.2 million diagnosed and undiagnosed cases. The current population of the Bay State is 6.98 million ... meaning that the overall infection rate here might be 38% ... obviously much higher in and around Boston.

Again, the high end of herd immunity approximations is 90% ... which means that the number of cases in major East Coast and Midwest metropolitan areas might be rapidly approaching herd immunity ... and that mortality rates here might be almost the same as the seasonal flu (0.1%) ... much lower than previously thought. The major delta seems to be the much more rapid speed of COVID-19 infections in cities with higher personal proximity particularly in public transportation systems.

I suspect we will know better soon.

Too Few Selfies

Lizzie Warren loses big in her home state of Massachusetts ...

Illegal Aliens Voting

Just saw Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin on TV promoting the fact that, if you have a state drivers license, you can go online and register to vote. And he also urged such registrants to be sure to vote. 

Now, the Bay State is also moving through its legislature a bill giving illegal aliens drivers licenses ... see: Mass Live Story. There is little doubt that such a proposal will soon become law.

So, dear reader, what exactly will keep even more illegal aliens from voting for national office in Massachusetts? (I know that many already do.)

Wha?

Listening to our AG, Maura Healey (famous for once saying, "It's not illegal to be illegal here in Massachusetts.") on WGBH here in Boston this PM, she was taking listeners' calls. One asked why would the mayor of Boston have turned off the sound system at the Free Speech Rally in Boston this past weekend? And, in typical liberal newspeak, she said, "Just because people have the right to speak, doesn't mean others need to be able to listen."

Wha?

Afterward: For you who are confused: Boston Rally Facts.

Impeachment!

Judge Derrick Watson of Hawaii has joined with six other judges from Washington, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut in issuing a restraining order prohibiting President Trump from using his Twitter account to communicate with the American people. This gaggle of jurists has indicated that nowhere in our Constitution does it state that tweeting is included in our First Amendment protections.

Were President Trump to violate this injunction, Representative Maxine Waters of California is prepared to initiate impeachment hearings in the House with the proviso that any member who is a Twitter fan of Trump's will be ineligible to vote in this matter. Senator Chuck Schumer has gone on all the major networks reading a statement in support of Water's initiative and adding that, were a trial to be held in the Senate, these same voting restriction will apply.

Headlines

These headlines are real ... they have all been discovered on Internet news sites.

Hero dog dies saving life of infant in house fire ...

Senior Muslim Cleric: Universal female genital mutilation 'would be very good'

Federal judge refers Sheriff Joe for criminal contempt

Manafort Out

Gun Owners of American: Disarming good guys does not disarm bad guys

Massachusetts taxes ride sharing apps -- to fund taxis!

ISIS strikes wedding party in Turkey, kills 50+ ... child suicide bomber

[Olympic] Gold for champ at 58 with hip replacement

Salon: GOP must dump Jesus or risk irrelevance in post-Christian America

Venezuela Spiral: Gang breaks into zoo, slaughters horse for food

Climate Philosopher Demands a Tax on Children

'Ben-Hur' bombs at boxoffice

.         

Infastructure Spending

The Keystone XL pipeline (blocked by President Obama) and the Kinder Morgan natural gas pipeline into Massachusetts (blocked by Senator Elizabeth Warren) ... are these not both infrastructure projects that are also said to be so badly needed by the Democrats? Perhaps it is because their spending is privately funded as opposed to government projects?

Islamic State

There are some who are proposing that an Islamic state be established in the United States ... see: Breitbart Article. If this is to be the case, may I suggest that it be California? (I would recommend Massachusetts as an even-better candidate, except I happen to live there.)

Rabbit Warren

Senator Elizabeth Warren is opposing the continuing financial resolution being considered tonight in Congress. This is because it may cause us to abandon provisions in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill that keeps the federal government from once again bailing out the big banks in another financial crisis. Much as her rhetoric seems convincing, I sincerely doubt that this Dodd-Frank bill would do any such thing. I strongly suspect that Senator Lieawatha is seizing this opportunity to kill this compromise resolution to grab the spotlight and gain enough media attention to be able to best Hillary Clinton as the next Democrat presidential candidate.

I sincerely hope she wins on both counts. I hope this bill dies tonight and the Democrats are finally fingered as causing a government shutdown ... or we get just a three-month continuation of federal funding. This would put the Republicans, due to their majorities in both houses, in the catbird seat for the next round of budget talks after the first of the year. And I also hope against hope that Senator Warren becomes the front runner (rabbit) of the Democrat party and leaves Hillary Clinton in the dust in the race for this party's nomination. I then believe that our loony liberals would have nominated a Walter Mondale redux for 2016. I doubt that, in the general election, she would even carry Massachusetts, her home state, up against any conceivable Republican candidate ... even, perish the thought, Donald Trump.

Please Allah let it be ...

Diapers

Today my witty wife, Jeanette, sent me the following quote:

“Politicians are like diapers; they need to be changed often and for the same reason.” Mark Twain

I agree ...  actually, politicians of both stripes are often pristine up until the time they first take office. Then for some strange reason Republicans avoid being besotted for a little bit longer than Democrats (in Massachusetts, they are so pervasively corrupt I like to call them Democraps). Good reason to vote for Republicans or Independents ... but only for their first couple of terms in office.

St. Patrick's Day

This post was originally placed on this blog site seven years ago.  However, it originally appeared even earlier on my Purple Prose blog site. It really is about St.Patrick's day here in Massachusetts and how this day is honored. Enjoy (and please don;t take the slightest offense as none is intended.)  Have a happy day!

Evacuation Day

In the Commonwealth of Massachusetts they celebrate one obscure holiday which is conveniently concurrent with St. Patrick’s Day. It is called “Evacuation Day.” On this day, the state government closes down ... allowing its many pols and solons to gather at their favorite watering holes to celebrate the banishing of snakes from the ole sod. Once there, they donate a parcel of liquor taxes back to the treasury from which they draw their sustenance. Incidentally, the reason Massachusetts is called a “commonwealth” is that the Pilgrims believed “from each according to his ability and to each according to his need” ... a tradition that lives on in this state unto this day.

Evacuation Day was named to honor the purging that supposedly saved the life of Paul Revere’s mother when she had come down with the croup the night before her son’s famous ride. Her doctor, Elias DeBakey, gave her a double dose of ipecac and prune juice. Then he bled her with leaches; sweated her in a log-cabin sauna; gave her a soapy water enema; and finally, had her down a triple dose of bromide expectorant. She was “evacuated” so completely that she dropped nearly a third of her body weight. But, despite all this bad medicine, she survived ... and the people of the Bay State chose to honor this miracle by declaring this day an annual holiday.

The Irish, when they are not blowing each other up, spend a good deal of their time writing blue-ribbon prose; and, as already noted, have an affinity for amber liquids. On Evacuation Day this tropism becomes an obsession. Brass-railed bars with names like “Galway Bay” and “Glacamora” fill with corpulent-visaged Celts downing tuns of Harp lager and Guinness stout. And, at the tables, sit hoards of green-tie trenchermen devouring nitrided corned beef, bilious cabbage, boiled Bliss potatoes, and Irish soda bread. In the more radical of these establishments, Erse is spoken to cover the intrigues and cabals being planned, abetted by the bravado of booze.

These Sons of Erin, having sated and slaked themselves, finish the day with some sort of melee. On this day, a bloody nose or a broken tooth is a badge of honor. But the belligerents know it’s time to go home when they start seeing leprechauns prancing among the pots of shamrocks on the bar top. Then, after everyone has left, the leprechauns really do emerge, belt down the bar spitsies ... and, invariably, start their own brouhaha. But when in turn, these elves start seeing even littler people hidden among the mosses and detritus of the clover pots, even the leprechauns call it a day.

Onion-Like News

Dateline: 11/18/2015 -- This afternoon, the newspaper boy for Central Natick, Massachusetts bought the entire New York Times newspaper organization for $15.87. He plans to use its distribution list to expand his delivery routes for The Weekly Reader and the Yellow Pages.  He also has indicated that he has enough money left over to buy a secret list of Internet porn-site visitors from in and around the Metrowest area ... as culled and assembled by the NSA.

Please do not respond in any way to this message as we will not acknowledge any of your concerns.

Afterward: Truth is stranger than fiction ... see: Powerline Blog Post.

Juxtaposition XLIII

Pond Scum

Ed Markey

See: Breitbart Story

Bottled Water

Two chemical engineering graduates and five others (five men and two women), some from UMass Amherst, were caught after midnight yesterday near the Quabbin Reservoir in Western Massachusetts.  (The temperature then was a chilly 38 degrees.)  This reservoir supplies Boston with its drinking water and is thus considered a critical strategic asset.  Now, this revelation in and of itself was suspicious, but the fact that these students were Muslims from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Singapore is distressing … see: Boston Herald Story and WWLP Story.

These suspects were questioned and released, but will be required to appear later to answer trespassing charges.  Their names were not released.  If they then fail to appear in court, I strongly suggest that Boston residents start drinking bottled water.

Le Jeux Sont Fait

What was once a sure bet ... building a casino ... has turned sour. The $2.4 billion Revel Casino in Atlantic City has just declared bankruptcy after less than a year of operation (see: CNBC Story ). The losses should top $1 billion for the initial investors and Atlantic City will continue to take it on the chin after years of hoopla.  This is an oft-repeated story. The casinos in Rhode Island are have been in steady decline for years.  I stopped going to them when it became obvious that their payout percentages were being reduced to make up for declining business ... which, of course, caused even greater visitor defections ... a vicious cycle.

Now the native-American casinos in Connecticut, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods, are also apparently on the downward slope and have extended their hands to Uncle Sam for some more sugar (see: Breitbart Story).  Six years ago these casinos were on a building binge ... expanding their gambling, lodging, dining, and commercial retail areas.  Now this optimism appears to have been misplaced.  Plus, Massachusetts is on the verge of authorizing slot parlors and destination casinos which will surely erode business away from Connecticut.  And, if the potential investors in these Massachusetts casinos are the slightest bit perspicacious, they probably should re-jigger their financial models to account for what is apparently a growing aversion to tossing away money on the part of the Supp-hose set.

The chips are down.

The Warren Court

I have written before about the tyro Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren … see: Lizzy ... basically commending her for putting a bevvy of bank regulators on the hot seat for not bring criminal charges against any banking types for the 2008 financial meltdown.  Since then Senator Warren has, from her position on the bench of the Senate Banking Committee, embarrassed two more sets of financial officials testifying there:

1) She asked the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, why the “too big to fail” provisions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law have not yet been fleshed out and implemented.  She said that not only have the big financial-center banks gotten bigger since this act was passed, but that they are benefiting from a money-cost differential between themselves and the smaller regional banks ... to the tune of something like $83 billion per year.  (See: Huffington Post Story).  Bernanke gave a dismissive response even after Warren kept pressing him on this issue.  (I must add however that, after Bernanke’s testimony was over, one could see Warren rushing up to the Fed Chairman as he was exiting the hearing room, presumably with some backtracking words.)

2) And, more recently, Senator Warren pressed Treasury officials as to why officers of HSBC bank have not been prosecuted (and/or had serious sanctions imposed on the bank) for laundering considerable drug money whereas minor drug dealers end up in the poky, see: Reddit Reference.  (HSBC did pay a $1.92 billion fine which seems to indicate that these were pretty serious offenses.)

Please don’t misunderstand me.  Although I commend Ms. Warren on her aggressive cross-examination style from the bench of the Senate Banking Committee, I still have serious questions about her own ethics regarding her long-ago claims of minority Native-American status … and the character weakness she displayed in how she ran her campaign against the incumbent Senator Scott Brown.  So I am conflicted about my above paeans for this woman ... but I do hope she continues her aggressive judicial ways from the bench.

Sitting Bull

I had always been curious why the Democrats in Washington never backed Elizabeth Warren to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  She was, after all, the face behind this consumer-reform push coming out of the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Law.  My wife and I were even somewhat sympathetic to her cause back then (my wife more than I).

I think we have since discovered this hesitancy on the left ... Elizabeth Warren is one gigantic fraud:

- First it was discovered that she has claimed Native-American heritage ... for which there is no documented proof ... and as a result of which it is quite likely that she has received juicy jobs in academia.  She refuses to authorize release of employment records that would clear up this issue.

- Second it was noted that all the recipes (three, I think) that she submitted to the book, Pow Wow Chow, under the attribution that she was a Cherokee, had been cribbed virtually word for word from other sources ... ironically the New York Times in two instances..

- Now, it is revealed that Ms. Warren has apparently been practicing law in Massachusetts without the proper licensure.  Since I am not conversant with the ins and outs of this issue, I refer you to the lawyer, John Hinderaker, to explain things fully in his blog post at Powerline.

- Lastly, in frequent debates and discussions on local radio here in Massachusetts, Ms. Warren, when asked embarrassing questions, has been evasive to the point of listener-cringing.  Just the other day she was queried as to why the current poobahs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau were making high six-figure salaries.  She responded with a litany of the good things this agency was doing but, conveniently and obviously, never answered the question.

Her campaign in this state against Senator Scott Brown has basically devolved into one talking point -- her election here will help keep the Republicans from taking over the Senate.  In other words, "hold your nose and vote for me."