Headlines

Trump — not Biden — is being underestimated going into the debate

Coronavirus live updates: New infections rise in more U.S. states, meatpackers deny employees compensation for virus

More voters plan on watching first debate — but few think it’ll change their mind

Project Veritas busts alleged ballot harvesting by Ilhan Omar allies

Kentucky AG agrees to release grand jury tapes in Breonna Taylor case

New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic

Biden’s Texas political director implicated in ballot harvesting scheme

PA Republicans ask Supreme Court to halt mail voting extension

Poll: Biden up 9 points in Pennsylvania

Biden campaign slams FaceBook for ‘regression’ in its efforts to safeguard the election

President Trump receives third Nobel Peace Prize nomination

Consumer confidence explodes higher


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Headlines

Virginia governor and first lady test positive for coronavirus

House Democrats prepare new $2.4 billion stimulus plan with unemployment aid, direct payments

John Brennan reportedly overruled analysts who concluded that Russia favored Hillary Clinton

Democrat Primary: Arrests made in illegal ballot harvesting scheme

Meadows attacks Wray, pushing FBI to probe voter fraud

Coronavirus live updates: Uber to verify riders’ mask use, AstraZeneca wins partial immunity in EU vaccine deal

FBI official who served on Mueller team says Special Council had ‘get Trump’ attitude

Report: Gun sales surge 80% in 7 swing states

DOJ announcement on Pennsylvania ballot investigation baffles election experts

EU appeals against Apple ruling in $15 billion tax battle

Texas Governor announces new proposed penalties for rioters

Durable goods orders rise for fourth straight month

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Headlines

Afghan president names council for peace deal with Taliban

FDA willing to fast-track coronavirus vaccine before phase three trial ends

BLM protesters in D.C. call for killing police, burning down White House

California lawmakers ready to consider slavery reparations

Chad Wolfe says he didn’t know naturalization would be seen at RNC

China tightens tech export controls, potentially jeopardizing TikTok deal, reports say

Uh Oh: up to 90% of positive coronavirus tests should have been negative

Judge orders Texas must allow on-line voter registration with driver’s license renewal

European official calls for new Belarus election with international supervision

Trump supporters, protesters clash in Portland, 1 [from the right] killed

Trump gains four points on Biden after RNC convention

5 years after migrant crisis, Merkel sez: I would do it again

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Herd Immunity

Is herd immunity the only real solution to the increasing infection rate of the COVID-19 pandemic? Well many epideniologists think so ... and I am beginning to agree. The current hot spots in the USA are Florida, Texas and California ... replacing New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, all three of which might be approaching some sort of plateau in daily new cases ... each generating only a few hundred cases per day while the hot spots are in the thousands. (There are other states that could be placed in each group ... only to complicate things ... so we will ignore them here.)

To normalize things between these states we will look at new daily cases per million of population ... see: World Meters. Here they are today:

                                Total

                     Cases per 1 million

New York               22,843

New Jersey             21,128

Massachusetts       17,064

Florida                    22,350

Texas                      15,315

California               12,799

Total USA              14,351

As been demonstrated in various blood tests for this virus’ antibodies, the number of asymptomatic cases can be as much as twenty or more times diagnoses cases. Therefore we can see from the above that New York, New Jersey and Florida might really have as many as 400,000 cases per million (40%) of population. Now, herd immunity is estimated to be achieved at 50-60% ... so, we might be getting close to herd immunity in these three states. (Maybe why these states, excepting the special case Florida might be slowing down.) And Texas, California and Massachusetts still have a way to go ... as does the overall USA. (Caveat: our much more extensive testing now might have reduced this multiplier between asymptomatic and diagnosed cases to well below 20.)

(We are not dealing with coronavirus death rates here because therapeutics have gotten a whole lot better ... and we have also learned to concentrate mitigation efforts on nursing homes. Texas, California and Florida are still doing worlds better than the other three on this count.)

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Headlines

How Covid-19 could give Kim Jong Un a doomsday weapon

Most swing-state voters back extending $600 weekly unemployment benefit, CNBC/Change poll finds

Over 100 police agencies pull out of agreements to guard Democrat National Convention

Twitter censors videos of doctors’ presser, locks Breitbart account

EU to limit export of ‘sensitive’ tech in response to Hong Kong security law

Coronavirus live updates: California, Florida, Texas report record-high average daily deaths

Politico publishes then scrubs article saying Biden picked Kamala as VP

Election interference: Google purges Breitbart from search results

Trump administration rejects new DACA applications as it works to end program

Kodak shares soar 200%, halted repeatedly on Trump deal to make drug ingredients

Some local U.S. law enforcement using Chinese drones cited for espionage concerns

Pelosi: ‘Despicable’ Barr was not forthcoming in his testimony

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Headlines

McConnell’s warning of lawsuit ‘epidemic’ undercut by lack of litigation

Bill Gates says there could be a ‘substantial’ reduction in coronavirus death rate by the end of 2020

Federal charges filed against 22 rioters in Portland

Joe Biden: Women ‘never had a fair shot’ in America

Ex-FBI agent Strzok due out with book about Trump, Russia

Twitter limits Trump Jr.’s access after he shared coronavirus misinformation

Chicago police create two new units to fight crime, rioters

Violent crime explosion forces Minneapolis residents to form militias

Italy to extend state of emergency until end of October

The Fed is extending its lending programs until the end of the year

Susan Rice reportedly on top of Biden’s VP shortlist

Texas doctor: Studies claiming HCQ doesn’t work are ‘fake science‘

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Headlines

Black Americans arming themselves in response to pandemic, protests

Kudlow says coronavirus relief will include $1,200 checks and extension of  eviction moratorium

Seattle has moved from “Defund the police” to “Abolish prisons”

Mike Ditka on anthem protests: ‘Get the hell out of the country’

Bass: Supporters will rally to Biden despite ‘94 crime bill

Florida has more coronavirus cases than New York and California leads the nation

Armed protester shot dead after confrontation at BLM rally in Texas

McCarthy: Dems have a China problem

Poll: Support of Trump’s handling of coronavirus pandemic hits new low

Regis Philbin, longtime television personality, dies at 88

Seattle police chief to local businesses: You’re on your own

L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti denies that Portland protests are violent

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Headlines

Supreme Court rejects Nevada church plea to allow larger congregations

Here comes one of the newsiest and most critical weeks of the summer for markets

NYC homeless encampments grows after de Blasio’s suppressed crackdown

Cuccinelli: Fed agents could sue Pelosi for libel

Cuomo, then Schumer accuse DHS officials of possible criminal activity

U.S. coronavirus deaths top 1,000 for four straight days

Rep. Swalwell: FBI spied on Trump — and they were right to do so

Pro-life Democrats urge party to drop embrace of abortion

House passes massive spending bill in bid to thwart election year shutdown

Hurricane Hanna heads for Texas coast as state struggles with coronavirus outbreak

CDC says schools should reopen in fall

Big supermarkets refuse to enforce mandatory mask law

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Headlines

Is Trump on track for an October vaccine surprise?

Mnuchin says plan for unemployment extension will be based on 70% wage replacement

New FBI notes re-debunk major NY Times story

Brexit talks: Trade deal ‘unlikely’ as British will not submit to EU demands

Portland mayor tear-gassed at protests by federal law enforcement

Mary Trump’s tell-all memoir sells1.5 million copies in blockbuster first week

El Chapo wants out of Supermax, citing coronavirus and poor conditions

Lawsuit: Former Cardinal McCarrick ran sex ring at New Jersey shore house

New unemployment gains rose last week to 1.4 million, ending months of declines

SEC Chair Clayton says he’s worried about short-term trading in stocks like Tesla

Tesla chooses Texas for location of new factory

John Cleese rips Cancel Culture: Emotionally unstable people setting the bar for what’s politically correct

Short Note

I recently wrote about how new national coronavirus deaths,  not new cases was the metric to follow how we were progressing against this virus ... see: Scaredy Cats. Now, new deaths are starting to creep up ... primarily because of new cases spikes in Florida, California and Texas are causing new deaths to follow. (Not so much in Arizona.) I think the issue in the Southwest is all driven by what is happening in border leakage from Mexico. But the Florida numbers well might be the result of some number funny business.

Bottom line: Overall new deaths are still the metric to use ... but until new cases in California and Texas level out and decline I have gotten less optimistic and, as President Trump has said, things are likely to get worse before they get better.


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Headlines

Kanye West holds his first event as candidate

NY Gov. Cuomo says young people at bars are ‘a threat’ to the state’s reopening

Allen West named new chairman of the Texas GOP

Bernie Sanders delegates from California reject Kamala Harris as VP

Trump says his relationship with ‘alarmist’ Fauci is ‘very good’

Oxford University’s coronavirus vaccine  shows positive immune response in trial

Chinese state media fawns over anti-Trump Lincoln Project

Son of federal judge Ester Salas shot dead, husband wounded

Battle over Covid aid consumes Congress’ final sprint to recess

‘We need to close down’ — Florida reports more than 10,000 new virus cases for fifth day

Ghislaine Maxwell reportedly believes Epstein was murdered

Everything is fine: Boris govt REJECTS  petition to protect statues

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Headlines

Trump stares down a ticking economic time bomb

Twitter says 130 people were targeted in hack that hijacked accounts of Elon Musk, Joe Biden

SCOTUS declines to reinstate votes of nearly 1 million Florida felons

All-time low coronavirus approval rating hurting Trump in swing states

Georgia governor sues to stop Atlanta mask mandate

Wall Street banks are in no rush to bring employees back to the office

White House divided over next phase of stimulus

Poll: Joe Biden leading President Trump in Texas

Democrats use Inspector General’s report to renew calls for Medicare chief’s ouster

European leaders gather for crunch talks on massive coronavirus fund

Report: Lincoln Project paid $2 million to firms owned by founders

Feinstein proposes halting Covid aid for states without masks mandates

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Garbage In

Garbage out.

The clouds may be beginning to part on the recent spike in coronavirus cases ... without the concomitant spike in virus deaths ... particularly in Florida and the Southwest. It seems that there may be some funny business in how these numbers are being collected ... at least in Florida ... and possibly elsewhere. Before we delve into this analysis, dear reader, you need to first read what crack bit of real reporting started this whole onion-peeling ... see: Florida Expose.

So, at least 36 virus-testing labs in Florida have been reporting jiggered results ... 22 of which have indicated that 100% of the tests they performed came back positive ... impossible! ... and 14 of which are highly suspicious. To say that such result are unusual and likely political is an obvious conclusion.

Let us now move into the analysis part. If one assumes that Florida’s overall positive test results would have been 10% (was 12.5%) and each lab tested on average 50 people (needs further clarification), then the labs reporting 100% positive results likely overstate virus cases by 45@ ... and 45x22 is 990 false positives. Add 280 as a rough guess from the obviously inflated results,  produces an overall false positive reading of 1,270 IN ONE DAY ... a significant overstatement.

My guess is that the real overstatement, given the visible evidence, is a whole lot higher ... one reason that new virus deaths did not follow new virus cases as would have been expected.

Are these same data collection shenanigans taking place in Texas, Arizona and California? Probably ... augmented by a cross-border flow of real cases of Mexicans and American ex-pats, since Mexico is experiencing a real surge.

I have no idea if there is a law against such data manipulation ... but there should be. And the Trump administration and the governors of all states experiencing a spike in cases should investigate this possible political malfeasance further. (And see if the virus death numbers are also now being tinkered with.)

Headlines

Mark Meadows finds it’s not so easy being chief

Home builders saw the strongest June sales since the last housing boom

Roger Stone to campaign for Trump

Abbott: Only way to prevent another Texas shutdown is wear a mask

China sanctions Cruz, Rubio in response to U.S. human rights sanctions

George Soros Foundation announces $220 million push for racial justice

U.S. Navy ship still on fire after a day —  57 injured

Thomas Sowell: ‘Systemic racism’ has ‘no meaning’

Mixed bag in Spain’s first pandemic election

Coronavirus updates: Hong Kong Disneyland to shutter again; Pfizer, BioNTech vaccines get ‘fast tracked’

President Trump rejects requests for aid from Minnesota

The Washington Redskins officially drop team name

Headlines

Trump allies push for a new campaign opening act: Michael Flynn

Nasdaq stocks led by Tesla continue their blistering run while chill envelops rest of the market

President Trump defends Roger Stone commutation — blasts Dem witchhunt

Seattle City Council backs call to defund police by 50%

New documents show internal debate on whether to prosecute Flynn

5G accelerating factory automation which could add trillions to global economy

President Trump asks Treasury to examine tax-exempt status of universities

Poll: Trump and Biden tied

Trump discounts chances of new China trade deal

Coronavirus deaths tick up in Florida, Texas, California, Arizona

President Trump confirms he greenlit US cyberattack against Russia in 2018

Trump promises citizenship to DACA illegal aliens

Headlines

POLITICO’s election forecast: Trump, GOP Senate in trouble

Trump administration releases list of companies that received most money from small business loans

Soros set to double 2016 election spending this year

Nike won’t sell [Redskins] team gear until name changes

Federal judge orders Dakota Access pipeline to close

Electoral College voters can be forced to back state popular vote winners, Supreme Court says

Chinese firm removes Hunter Biden from board on company website, but he still owns 10% of company

Hundreds return to protest outside armed couple’s home in St. Louis

Trump criticizes NASCAR ban on Confederate flags, attacks black driver

Coronavirus hospitalizations grow in more than 20 states as Texas admissions soar to new record

Niagara Falls - area becomes ground zero of maijuana smuggling

Israel blew up nuclear site in Iran, official tells New York Times

Headlines

‘We all néed to come together’: Ernst distances herself from Trump’s rhetoric

‘The growth is exponential’ — Florida and Texas report surge in coronavirus cases over Fourth of July

A ‘President Biden’ would be exactly what Russia and China would want

Baltimore: Black Lives Matter destroy Columbus statue dedicated by Reagan

Duckworth declines to say Biden should select black woman as running mate

Coronavirus on track to overwhelm Houston hospitals in two weeks, mayor says

Armed member of Canada’s military crashes into gate of PM Trudeau’s home

Joe Biden : ‘I’m Joe Biden’s husband, Joe Biden’

Kayne West says he’s running for president

As Black buying power grows, racial profiling by retailers remains persistent problem

German Economic Minister predicting economic recovery starting in October

1 of 2 protesters hit by car on closed Seattle highway dies

Surge

8-year-old shot and killed in Atlanta

Just a short note: Liberal media this morning opened their programming with  the weekend  ”surge” in coronavirus cases in Texas and Florida  ... whereas conservative media led with the “surge” in drive-by shootings in Chicago, New York City and Atlanta.

Headlines

UK to allow quarantine-free travel with nearly 60 countries — but not the U.S.

Senate Republicans cool to 2nd round of stimulus checks, direct deposits

U.s. Attorney says there are 150 federal cases tied to riots

National parks are latest target of systemic racism claim in America

Judiciary Committee to interview Manhattan federal prosecutor ousted by Barr

Surgeon general stops short of warning people to avoid crowds on Fourth of July

Protesters to storm D.C. over Independence Day weekend

Poll: 7 in 10 ‘angry’ about ‘state of the country’

Florida hits new COVID-19 record ahead of Pence visit

Experts fear the end of eviction moratoriums could plunge thousands of people into homelessness

Texas Gov. Abbott establishes mask mandate for entire state

Poll: Most Liberals say Americans are too lazy to work

Fudge

I have been perplexed at the disconnect between the spike in COVID-19 cases and the continued downward slope of the deaths from this virus ... even with a two week plus lag. How can this be? Well I have posited some reasons: the virus is weakening, there are better therapeutics, mostly young people, with less morbidity being infected, etc. But I have not considered another possibility — the new cases numbers are being fudged!

How can this happen ... and why? Well the why is fairly obvious — politics is involved ... more cases equals longer lockdowns and slower economic recovery ... equals problems for the Orangeman. 

The “how” is just now being discovered. In Texas at least, health authorities have changed the definition of those with COVID-19 from one who tests positive for this virus to, ta-da, someone who has been in close contact with this positive person ... whether this “contact” tests positive or not! Clearly, good reason to see the number of cases surge in this state ... see: Conservative Treehouse explanation.

So, can politics affect public health? You bet your bippy!

Now, kind reader, are other fudgings of case counts happening elsewhere? We will have to wait and see. But, if new cases keep surging while new deaths keep to their downward path, one would have to suspect so.