Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts

Monday, December 23, 2019

The Hammer


No, this blog post is not written to refer to Elizabeth Warren’s continual reference to “poor Americans being hammered.” It is meant to reinforce a point I have previously made about the economic competition between the United States and China. President Trump is making slow progress in his attempt to level the playing field in this economic arm-wrestling match between Xi Jinping and himself.

It appears the Phase 1 trade deal is done and now comes Phase 2, the harder one,Trump has one tool for this phase besides tariffs, a huge hammer, he has yet to use in this competition ... and that is to force Chinese companies listed on American stock exchanges to comply with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAPs) and to undergo annual audits by a reputable accounting firms.

Why our SEC has allowed Chinese companies to slide on these restrictions is beyond me? This has permitted its companies access to American capital that they shouldn’t have had ... and given them an unfair advantage against those American companies who have had to comply. And this capital has also indirectly funded much of China’s worldwide mischief.

At the very least, Trump should make such compliance a requirement for Xi to get a Phase 2 trade deal ... a hammer that finally would make the Chinese economic competition a far fairer match.

Friday, December 13, 2019

Headlines


Officials: Jersey City shooting was ‘targeted attack’

Outlook to nation’s top CEOs dims again on trade war concerns

Poll: Pete slips, Bernie rising ...

31 Trump district Democrats will decide impeachment’s fate

Pompeo insists Trump ‘made clear’ to Lavrov that he won’t tolerate Russian meddling

Chevron is writing down as much as $11 billion of [oil reserve] assets, and it could cost the entire market

NJ shootout suspects identified ... Black Hebrew Israelite ...

Tory lead narrows, pollster cuts Johnson’s majority to 28

Biden signals to aides that he would only serve a single term

DOJ watchdog Horowitz says FBI’s conduct in Trump-Russia probe doesn’t vindicate anybody

Fed in focus as worries mount over year-end repo market flare-up ...

William Barr: FBI falsified documents to continue spying on Trump & Co

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Headlines


Trump impeachment  witnesses leave a trail of tantalizing clues

S&P 500 jumps to record high on strong earnings, trade-deal progress

Trump greeted by boos, chants of ‘lock him up’ at World Series game ...

Impeachment witness Bill Taylor led Ukraine delegation for group advised by Hunter Biden

Brown: California fires show ‘the horror’ world will face from climate change

Chart analysts say new record gives investors the green light to jump back into bull market

Russia ‘doubts’ it [Baghdadi takedown] took place ...

Report: Democrat [Rep.] Kate Hill to resign

Trump says phase one of China trade deal is ‘ahead of schedule’

Cramer on stock record: We need apologies from trade-war naysayers who said US would be damaged

Survey: 1 in 3 millennials see Communism as favorable ...  70% likely to vote socialist ...

FNC’s Wallace presses Pence: ‘Why didn’t the president notify’ Pelosi

Friday, October 11, 2019

Headlines


Impeachment threat is helping GOP recruit candidates

Joe Biden calls for Trump’s impeachment for the first time

Hillary’s joking right? ‘I can beat him again!’

Ronan Farrow claims Hillary pressured him to kill Weinstein story

Top labor leader says USMCA will be defeated if quick vote is held

US-China trade talks are about to start — a cut-down deal could lift some tariffs by year-end

Trump: Take your probe and shove it! Poll: Impeached and re-elected?

More evidence Elizabeth Warren lied about being fired for being pregnant

Turkey launches incursion into northern Syria

Fox terminates Trey Gowdy amid reports he joined Trump’s legal team

Kurds vow to use human shields against Turkish troops  ...

Genocide: China bulldozing Ulghur cemeteries to make them more ‘civilized’ ...

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Headlines



Trump’s plan to stem border crossings gets results

JP Morgan is close to winning a lead role in history’s biggest IPO: Saudi Aramco

Trump cancels secret Taliban meeting at Camp David ...

Mechanic accused of sabotaging flight came to U.S. from Iraq

Klobacher blasts Trump’s Taliban strategy: ‘This isn’t a game show’

China’s exports to the US are falling sharply as Trump escalates the trade war

Joe Walsh says George Conway advising him ...

Alveda King: Bernie Sander’s population control will target black communities

French minister: European Union won’t grant UK a Brexit delay as things stand

Mark Sanford will mount Republican primary challenge against Trump

Warren-Clinton team up ...

Winning: 6.2 million off food stamps under Trump


And as an an extra added headline (from Powerline blog)



Sunday, August 25, 2019

Headlines


Haley-Pence rivalry heats up as GOP weighs post-Trump future

Trump will raise rates on Chinese goods in response to trade war retaliation

Ruth Bader Ginsburg undergoes more cancer treatments ...

Joni Ernst: Eliminating Electoral College would ‘silence’ Iowa voices

Trump praises Danish PM after calling her ‘nasty’ in Greenland row

EU chief Tusk says will ‘respond in kind’ if US imposes tariffs on France over digital tax

BIDEN: What would have happened if Obama had been assassinated?

Maher on David Koch: ‘I’m glad he’s dead’

Trump offers Brazil help with Amazon [rain forest] fires

Dow plummets more than 600 points after Trump orders manufacturers to leave China

Palestinian President Abbas: Millions of fighters will take over Jerusalem ...

Hong Kong protesters form 28-mile human chain

The Acid Test


President Trump and President Xi of China are now engaged in a hot trade war ... after, apparently, a cordial start at Mar-a-Largo soon after Trump was inaugurated and Xi was elevated to president for life. The back and forth escalation of tariffs and broken commitments is complicated ... so, if you need a reprise, please visit: US-China Tariff Timeline.

As seen in the above, China’s obvious strategy in defeating the United States in this trade war is to trump Trump in the 2020 election  ... hoping for a more pliant Democrat to replace him ... Biden, for instance, who it has already greased with a $1.5 billion “investment” in his son, Hunter’s “hedge fund.” Most people suspected this slow-walk strategy when the mutual trade talks leading to a tentative pact was abrogated by China this past May. This complicated deal had been arduously hammered out over the many previous months. And this slap was followed by a Chinese agricultural purchasing agreement that was also shortly reneged on.

Needless to say, this trade war is now getting hotter and the back-and-forth quicker. Trump has even just labeled Xi his “enemy” which seems appropriate ... given the duplicity China has engaged in since May. So, a thinking person has to conclude that no good will possibly come of this tariff pissing contest until after November, 2020. And this then is the acid test.

The American voter quite likely will be given a choice in the next general election ... overcome any distaste for Trump’s reality-TV personality and vote for him ... or vote for the Democrat and signal capitulation to China ... in this extremely consequential trade war ... so consequential that it might well mean the beginning of the end of American hegemony in the world. I realize that this all sounds melodramatic ... but this contrast and it’s consequence is bound to be drawn more sharply in the months ahead.

So, kind reader, study up.

Afterward: Me thinks that China is banking on a substantial portion of the American public voting to have us step back from center stage and let someone else take over ... after all we voted twice for the man who clearly had this as an objective ... and the world cheered ... they even gave him the Nobel Peace Prize ... his name of course: Barack Hussein Obama.

Friday, August 23, 2019

Headlines


Trump reverses himself on tax cut ideas

Bond market yield curve inverts, signaling Fed may be too slow to cut rates, risk’s recession

Job growth reduced by 501,000

Trump: No more tax cuts. Fear it would shake consumer cojnfidence?

Trump eases student loan forgiveness for disabled veterans

Fed says July rate cut was ‘recalibration’ and not part of a ‘pre-set course’ for more easing

Poll: 69% would hold Trump responsible if recession ...

Paul Ryan to move family from Wisconsin to Washington, DC

Jewish DEMs rage at Trump’s ‘disloyalty’ comments

‘I am the Chosen One,’ Trump proclaims as he defends trade war with China

Japan warns NKorea now has miniaturized nukes; ‘Imminent threat’ ...

Trump looking at ending ‘ridiculous’ anchor baby policy

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Headlines


Trump says he doesn’t understand why he is getting blamed for Hong Kong tensions

Trump just blinked, giving China a possible edge in trade war, some big Wall Street names say

Riot police storm HKG ... Battle for freedom! ...Trump neutral ...

Chris Cuomo referred to himself as ‘Fredo’ in 2010 radio interview

Trump to delay duties on many consumer products

A $1 trillion US budget deficit is one big reason the Fed may have to cut rates

Mortgage debt hits record, eclipsing 2008 peak ...

Sanders: Trump ‘most dangerous president in U.S. history’

Hong Kong government is exacerbating unrest, former British governor says

Warden of jail where Jeffery Epstein killed himself reassigned, 2 guards placed on leave

Americans apply for jobs at food plant raided by ICE ...

Man screaming ‘Allahu Akbar’ goes on Sydney stabbing spree

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Junkies


The United States has been hooked. No, I don’t mean on drugs ... but that too is a serious problem. I mean on low-priced consumer goods ... many coming from China. Companies like Walmart, Christmas Tree Shops, Five Below, etc. have been big beneficiaries of this trend ... as obviously have been our consumers.

I have often chided my wife, after a trip to one of these discount stores, that one day our house is going to explode because of all this cheap “stuff” filling all our crooks and crannies. And I’m sure that this story is being repeated all across middle-class America. Do we really need a four-story cat cubby and scratching pole?

So, the U.S. consumer needs to go on binge-buying withdrawal. And, if Trump sticks to his guns on his tariff wars, the eventual higher cost of such goods might inspire such an adjustment. ... maybe even a sea change.

These purchasing adjustments might well be painful to many American retailers, even possibly Amazon. But they would also be devastating to those foreign manufacturers which have relied on cheap labor to produce the cheap goods they export.

I am not smart enough to gauge the extent of these economic dislocations ... but they clearly could be severe ... maybe even traumatic ... somewhat like the detoxification that junkies experience in the first weeks of their rehab treatments.

Monday, August 12, 2019

Looming Recession?


A recession is the Democrats’ wet dream. They know that an economic swoon would help their chances in the presidential election next year. So what might cause a recession? Certainly the U.S.-China trade war could be a significant factor. In fact, it is clear now that the Chinese now are not going to agree to what day of the week it is until after November, 2020 ... hoping that Trump will be bounced and a squishy Democrat will be then sitting across the negotiating table. Trump clearly knows this and is reducing expectations.

Another possibility is the trade deal with Mexico and Canada ... not as big as China, but still important. Nancy Pelosi is sitting on the USMCA like it is a hard-boiled egg. She will not give Trump a win this close to the next election even if it damages our country. How patriotic!

And, of course, the Fed has a potentially huge roll in how well our economy does. It really screwed the pooch last December when it continued raising interest rates when much of the rest of the developed world had negative rates to stimulate their economies. There then was over a three percentage point differential in rates which strengthen the dollar and hurt exports. Trump’s jawboning has caused Powell to reverse himself and start to lower rates once again ... and to halt quantitative tightening (reducing the money supply). Is the Fed doing too little, too late?

And I am sure that there are other schemes being concocted inside the DNC to shoot our economy in the head ... or at least in the leg. Even though many of the poobahs on Wall Street are liberals, they still like money better ... and there have been times where a falling stock market led the economy down. So if they can nudge the economy down by shorting the stock market, they might just do it. However, they also need to worry about a low-probability whiplash caused by a breakthrough in the trade war. There is a limit to this type of economic manipulation.

We’re all in for an exciting 15-month roller coaster ride. Stay buckled in!

Friday, August 09, 2019

Headlines


‘Warren has built a monster’ inside the Democrats’ battle for Nevada

Investors try to figure out Trump’s trade war endgame: ‘I can’t even tell you what victory is’

Rasmussen: [Trump] 47% approval ...

President Trump supports expanded background checks

Puerto Rico high court overturns Pedro Piertuisi as governor

10-year yield drops below 1.6%, 30-year drops to 30-year low as collapse in rates accelerates

‘Red Flag’ plan has support in Congress ...

Marianne Williamson releases $500 billion reparations plan

Trump quietly used regulations to expand gun access

Gold surges above $1,500, now has a better return than stocks this year

Troubles: NYTimes stock tumbles as much as 20% ... Ad revenue scarce

Biden pushes gun confiscation plan


Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Headlines


Trump decries white supremacy, video games following shootings

Kyle Bass: China’s currency would collapse 30% to 40% if they stopped supporting it

[China] Halts new agricultural purchased ...

O’Rourke on Trump: ‘Jesus Christ, of course he’s a racist’

Trump stumbles into Kashmir showdown

China fires biggest warning shot yet in trade war and now its up to Trump to decide how far to go

Super rich selling stocks, buying properties — keeping cash ready ...

President Trump calls for Red Flag laws after Texas, Ohio shootings

Nadler: Judiciary panel could recommend articles of impeachment by late fall

Rating China’s retaliation in the trade war: ‘On a scale of 1 to 10, it’s an 11’

Mexico vows to take legal action against USA after El Paso shooting ...

Chinese state media: White nationalism is deeply rooted in Trump’s mind’

Monday, August 05, 2019

Yuan More


China, in response to Trump’s threatened additional 10% tariffs on $300 billion of its exports, has weakened its currency, the yuan, to above 7 to the dollar ... see: CNBC Story. This retaliatory move proves President Trump is right when he says that China pays for these tariffs and not US companies.

But it also makes it more difficult for American farmers to sell produce into China ... somewhat offset by our recent farm subsidies ... and huge problems with Chinese hog production.

However, to this observer, it is conclusive proof that China is a currency manipulator ... which should remove all hope that its currency will replace the dollar as the basis of international trade ...  something that Beijing has been angling for as a sign that it is the economic powerhouse it claims to be.

And, finally, it puts indirect pressure on the Fed for more rate cuts this year which should have the effect of weakening the dollar relative to all currencies ... and buoying up our economy.

Trump is playing a very complicated economic game ... with lots of dials to turn and levers to pull ... and he seems to be playing it well, IMHO.

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Headlines


John Ratcliff won’t be Trump’s next national intelligence director

Perfect storm building for stock correction as trade war simmers and market awaits more Fed action

Record 157,288,000 employed

Peter Thiel slams Google for sharing AI technology with China

Lawyers spar over secrecy for Facebook emails on Cambridge Analytica

How decades of US sanctions decimated Iran’s economy

Middle class falling deeper into debt ...

Report: Elijah Cummings’ Baltimore house burglarized

Emails show Stephen Miller premed hard to limit green cards

70% of shoes sold in US comes from China. With new tariffs, the industry braces for hit

Florida declares public health emergency over Hepatitis A ... Philly too

U.S. added 164:000 jobs in July

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Headlines


Senate passes massive year budget deal

Trump’ latest broadside on China raises fear that the trade war is the ‘new status quo’

ALARM: Biden repeatedly stumbles over words and stats ... Makes at least 7 gaffs ...

Andrew Yang admits climate fanatics can’t stop China, India

Pentagon puts $10B contract on hold after Trump  swipe at Amazon

Retail stocks tank after industry set to take a ‘direct hit’ from new China tariffs

Rep. Cummings’ Baltimore home burglarized ...

Marianne Williamson dominates Google search in 49 states after debate

Night 2 of Detroit Dem debate drew 10.7 million viewers, well below June ratings

Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods as talks continue

Michael Moore: To crush Trump,  Michelle O needs to run ...

NATO ally Germany won’t back U.S. in Gulf to avoid war with Iran

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Boiling the Frog


“The era of economic surrender is over.” — President Donald J. Trump

Trump is turning up the heat on China. He says that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China starting September 1st. Last December he slapped 10% tariffs on $250 billion of imports from China ... then raised them to 25% in May when China reneged on a deal that had been almost fully negotiated. If China does not make the huge agricultural buys that it has committed to (but already reneged on once), I fully expect that this second tranche of tariffs will go to 25% sometime next year. Trump is slowly boiling the frog ... or, should I say, dragon.

As I have often predicted, China is obviously hoping against hope that Trump will lose the election next year and that he will be replaced by an Obama clone (maybe even Michelle) in order to be restored to the old status quo. Obviously, the tariffs that Trump has so far imposed have slowed down capital investment by US companies ... which has, in turn, slowed our economy by about one percentage point. If and when higher tariffs go into effect, economic growth may slow further which would reduce Trump’s chances of getting re-elected ... which is also likely part of China’s strategy. However, if this gambit does not work, China will end up with a worse deal in 2021 (as Trump has warned.)

The other predicted bugaboo is the threat of US domestic inflation. This has been anticipated from our previous tariff impositions ... but, so far, nada ... a good sign that China is mostly paying these tariffs with lower prices and a devalued currency. Also US companies are beginning to move manufacturing out of China ... a trend that may well accelerate this Fall if China continues to be recalcitrant. This cannot be a trend that China relishes. But will it blink first and jump out of the boiling pot? As Trump often says, “We’ll see what happens.”

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Headlines


On the attack: Trump targets Cummings for second straight day

The Fed is about to cut rates for the first time since 2008 as trade war weighs on economic growth

Axelrod: If Trump loses [in 2020], this [Cummings attack] will be why ...

Baltimore Sun Op-Ed: Trump’s right, declare Baltimore a ‘disaster’ and rebuild it

Trump names Rep. John Ratcliff to replace Dan Coates as director of national intelligence

House judiciary chairman says Trump ‘richly deserves impeachment’

FoxNews poll: 47% want impeachment, 45% don’t ...

Sanders [once] blasted Elijah Cummings’ district as a ‘third-world country’

Trump will sign budget deal, Mulvaney says

There are surprising signs that Trump’s maximum pressure on Iran could lead to talks

Israel, US test intercepting ballistic missiles in Alaska ...

Update: 12 injured, at least 3 killed at Gilroy [CA] Garlic Festival shooting

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Triple Whammy


The US economy seems to be doing quite well at the moment, historically low unemployment, blowout durable goods orders and an upwardly revised 2019 GDP estimates by the IMF. And it seems that at least one Fed rate cut this year is now baked into the cake. Next, the Democrats do what they invariably do (they can’t help themselves) ... they negotiated with the White House fire-house federal spending increases next year in exchange for raising the debt ceiling for two years (until after the next presidential election). Do they not realize that this is fiscal stimulus in an election year? And this will do nothing but help the president’s economic braggadocios?

If China has any smarts, it will realize that fiscal stimulus on top of monetary stimulus will mean that it would be best to cut a trade deal with Trump before he gets re-elected for the best terms possible. And, if it does so capitulate, this will be a a triple economic whammy ... one which could easily drive US GNP growth to over 5% — almost an unimaginable number for the world’s biggest economy!

Now, dear reader do you understand why America’s stock market keeps making new highs day after day?

Monday, July 22, 2019

Headlines


Democrats want to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. It’s not that simple

‘It never stops’: US farmers face extreme heat after floods and trade war

Military eyes 16year olds as ranks and candidates dwindle ...

Powerline blog: Ilhan Omar’s family faked asylum, married brother

RNC more than doubles DNC’s fundraising in June

Silver had its best week since 2016 but gold or Bitcoin are better bets, traders say

President tells aids to look for big spending cuts in ‘second term’ ...

Twitter suspends Angel Mom for posting about illegal immigration

Citing discrimination, HUD denies L.A. $80M

Iran denies that the second British ship was seized

Pew: 91% Dems see violence coming ...

Drug overdose deaths fall in U.S. for first time in over 30 years