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I have been perplexed at the disconnect between the spike in COVID-19 cases and the continued downward slope of the deaths from this virus ... even with a two week plus lag. How can this be? Well I have posited some reasons: the virus is weakening, there are better therapeutics, mostly young people, with less morbidity being infected, etc. But I have not considered another possibility — the new cases numbers are being fudged!
How can this happen ... and why? Well the why is fairly obvious — politics is involved ... more cases equals longer lockdowns and slower economic recovery ... equals problems for the Orangeman.
The “how” is just now being discovered. In Texas at least, health authorities have changed the definition of those with COVID-19 from one who tests positive for this virus to, ta-da, someone who has been in close contact with this positive person ... whether this “contact” tests positive or not! Clearly, good reason to see the number of cases surge in this state ... see: Conservative Treehouse explanation.
So, can politics affect public health? You bet your bippy!
Now, kind reader, are other fudgings of case counts happening elsewhere? We will have to wait and see. But, if new cases keep surging while new deaths keep to their downward path, one would have to suspect so.
4 comments:
The way I read the supporting document (Published by one Texas county State Health Dept -- not the even whole state), the only thing that has changed is the definition of "probable COVID19" in counting DEATHs where there had NOT been a confirmed positive test.
This is contrary your theory that the confirmed positive cases are being fudged. This would be more likely to lead to a spike in reported deaths.
Definitions changed for both “probable cases” AND deaths. So this means both went up in Texas. This suggests to me that the downward slope of deaths is, in reality, even steeper than seen. AND spike in new cases is manufactured.
First of all we are talking about a lone county in Texas, not a widespread policy change.
Second, "Probable case" are not reported as "new Confirmed Cases."
The change in definition of "Probable Cases" was done SOLELY to determine "COVID related Deaths". Treehouse got it wrong, again.
Read the document again: https://eagenda.collincountytx.gov/docs/2020/CC/20200518_2481/48410%5FExplanation%2Epdf
1) the new definitions are STATEWIDE (issued ny Texas
Dept. of Health)
2) the new definitions deal with probable new cases and new deaths BOT.H. You want it to be your way ... but, once again, you are wrong. Kind readers can confirm your errors by looking themselves. I won’t try again.
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