Juxtaposition

Here is an interesting juxtaposition of statistics that deserves highlighting: As of today in 2020, New Hampshire has had 442 Covid-19 deaths versus 415 deaths from drug overdoses in all 2019 (490 in all 2018). Tell me kind readers ... why has the first number created a public panic ... but the latter one been given the good ole ho-hum?


STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

School Openings

We already know that, when children get coronavirus, their symptoms are generally mild and there is virtually no chance that they will die ... less than 20 in the US since the pandemic began in March. Of course even one death is sad ... but it should not be driving national policy ... such as not reopening schools ... or being too restrictive in their operation.

Yes, the opposite is true for us old gasbags, but the risks to us can be managed. Please look at the profile of Covid cases and deaths in California and let’s assume it can be extrapolated to the whole country ... see: Covid in California.

Oh, but the children are going to infect each other and then the adults they interact with ... their teachers, parents, grandparents, etc. From this data, it is clear that, even if kids can easily spread this disease to adults (which is disputed), the risk to teachers under the age of 50 is quite small. All over Europe schools are reopening with no unmanageable outbreaks ... see: Breitbart Story.

Yes, the real danger for school reopening is for the grandparents involved ... particularly those with their immune systems compromised ... and co-morbidities. But, again with focused mitigations, this risk too can be mitigated. Our valued children need to go back to school! Old farts, like me, are not as important!

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

MexiCOVID

There is a coronavirus story that is not being told in the national media ... and that is that Mexico is one of the hottest spots in the world. Its cases, at 324 thousand, now top Spain (306 thousand) and italy (244 thousand). And its deaths, at 38 thousand, also top Spain (24 thousand) and Italy (35 thousand). Even Mexico’s new deaths so far today (668) are almost half the total for the whole world (1,481)!

Is the light starting to dawn ... why the Southwest of the United States might also be having a spike in new COVID cases and even a blip in new deaths? One would think that a good reporter (or the CDC) in this area of our country might investigate this further to see how many of our new cases there are actually border crossers ... ex-pats and Mexican workers attracted by our superior medical facilities?

STAND UP FOR AMERICA! 

Last of the Key Comparisons

I think that this might be my last post on this issue for a while ... as it seems things may be settling down.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 22, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/22/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        59,154
Sweden                   29,291
Norway                  46,553
Italy                        66,970
South Korea           19,330
Germany                51,917

California               55,240
Massachusetts        97,161
New York             117,908
Florida                    51,586

                   Cases per million
USA                         5,817
Sweden                    4,149
Norway                    1,570
Italy                          3,870
South Korea                230
Germany                  2,208

California                  3,111
Massachusetts        14,808
New York                19,704
Florida                      2,802

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           383
Sweden                      452
Norway                        44
Italy                           567
South Korea                  5
Germany                    104

California                   113
Massachusetts         1,045
New York                 1,557
Florida                        122

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Newest Key Comparisons

I guess I’ll be doing this post every week for a while.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 22, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/22/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        40,768
Sweden                   20,798
Norway                  41,178
Italy                        53,635
South Korea           15,653
Germany                 42,923

California               36,742
Massachusetts       72,758
New York               80,066
Florida                    37,973

                   Cases per million
USA                         4,904
Sweden                    3,251
Norway                    1,534
Italy                          3,770
South Korea                217
Germany                  2,139

California                  2,239
Massachusetts         13,070
New York                18,832
Florida                      2,266

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           291
Sweden                      389
Norway                       43
Italy                           537
South Korea                 5
Germany                     89

California                     92
Massachusetts            892
New York                 1,485
Florida                        100

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

As another metric here is an interesting comparison. (I forgot where I found it.) I think it is a little dated and does not reconciled it with the above numbers ... but looks close:

Latest Key Comparisons

I guess I’ll be doing this post every week for a while.

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 15, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/15/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        32,166
Sweden                   17,590
Norway                  39,266
Italy                        46,426
South Korea           14,177
Germany                 37,585

California               27,957
Massachusetts       61,568
New York               67,035
Florida                    28,382

                   Cases per million
USA                         4,407
Sweden                    2,832
Norway                    1,513
Italy                          3,689
South Korea                215
Germany                  2,089

California                  1,897
Massachusetts        11,923
New York                18,155
Florida                      2,012

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           263
Sweden                      350
Norway                       43
Italy                           519
South Korea                 5
Germany                     95

California                     77
Massachusetts           795
New York                 1,410
Florida                          87

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Updated Key Comparisons

It is difficult to compare the various country, and now state coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tables. So, once again,  I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Norway, Italy, South Korea, Germany) .... and states (California, Massachusetts, New York and Florida) one week after my first comparison. Here are the numbers as of May 8, 2020 ... see: Latest Data for verification. (If you check after 5/8/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                        25, 119
Sweden                   14,704
Norway                  34,406t
Italy                        33,385
South Korea           12,773
Germany                 32,891

California               21,530
Massachusetts       51,482
New York               55,556
Florida                    24,035

                   Cases per million
USA                         3,906
Sweden                    2,438
Norway                    1,482
Italy                          3,570
South Korea                211
Germany                  2,022

California                  1,596
Massachusetts        10,793
New York                17,199
Florida                      1,885

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           232
Sweden                      301
Norway                       40
Italy                           495
South Korea                 5
Germany                     88

California                     65
Massachusetts           665
New York                 1,344
Florida                          78    

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea? Actually, the more I inspect numbers, the more I am certain the politics and nationalism are infecting most results. This, of course, makes dealing with this pandemic very problematic ... unfortunately.

Headlines

Trump says Fauci will testify before Senate, blasts House ‘setup’

Coronavirus live updates: Grocery prices are rising, while many Wendy’s restaurants run out of beef

U.S. deaths 68,922 ...

Coronavirus: Wages of over half of U.K. adults now paid by British state

Fed study links 1918 flu pandemic to rise of Nazi party

Consumer debt hits new record of $14.3 trillion

Trump: Make America Great Again, again ...

New York Times Op-Ed: Dump Biden over Tara Reade allegations

85,000 voters could be removed from Florida rolls

US services sector posts biggest contraction since 2008

Jobless rate 34% ... Treasury borrows trillions ...

Democrat operatives launch ‘Committee to Draft Michelle Obama’ for 2020

Key Comparisons

It is difficult to compare the various country coronavirus statistics ... since they are so far apart in the big tabes. So I have taken some time to put together some of the critical measures (Tests per million, Cases per million and Deaths per million) for some key countries (USA, Sweden, Italy, South Korea and Germany). Here are the numbers as of May 1, 2020 ... see: Latest Dara for verification. (If you check after 5/1/2020, the numbers will change.)

                   Tests  per million
USA                       19,311
Sweden                  11,833
Italy                       32,735
South Korea           12,153
Germany                30,400

                   Cases per million
USA                         3,309
Sweden                    2,131
Italy                         3,398
South Korea               210
Germany                 1,947

                 Deaths  per million
USA                           193
Sweden                      203
Italy                            463
South Korea                   5
Germany                      79

Do you believe the numbers for South Korea?

Headlines

NCAA proposes letting college athletes get paid for endorsements

US GDP shrank 4.8% during the first quarter amid biggest contraction since the financial crisis

U.S. deaths 58,611 ...

Poll: Trump net approval on coronavirus response hits new low

Gilead says remdesivir data shows encouraging signs against coronavirus

Pending home sales shrank nearly 21% in March, but Realtors claim prices will hold up

Medication shortages next crisis ...

Report: FoxNews severs ties with Diamond & Silk

‘Criminal incompetence’: Outrage after de Blasio breaks up crowded Orthodox Jewish funeral

Coronavirus testing chief says ‘no way on Earth’ US can test 5 million a day

Despite McConnell comment, states can’t go bankrupt, only default ...

Iran warns U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf: Get ready for a ‘hand slap in the face’

Bending the Curve

 

Both Doctors Birx and Fauci keep pointing to”bending the curve” and “logarithmic growth” as key elements in determining when we will emerge from the COVID-19 woods. What do these terms mean? Dear reader, in this blog post, I will try to explain.

I have previously pointed you to the Latest Data link to show you the numbers describing what is happened with the coronavirus case and mortality statistics. The first two charts show how the numbers are progressing worldwide. At the top of each chart you have the option between linear and logarithmic forms of these numbers. Why logarithmic? 

Because there is a convenient mathematical trick that allows you to quickly assess the growth rate of the underlying raw data. Neato!

To see this trick in action chick on the logarithmic option on say the worldwide Coronavirus Cases chart. Now look at the slope of this logarithm curve at various points. To convert this slope estimate into a growth rate look at the above table ... converting the rightmost column to degrees by multiplying by 100. Then read the growth rate from th left column. As one can see, when the slope of the curve on the logarithmic trend line flattens, the “growth rate” of the raw numbers is zero ... meaning not that the numbers are going down, just the change in these numbers is unchanging.

Click on the top table entry  “US” link to drill down into the numbers just for America and perform this same mathematical trick.

One can also see that the actual numbers will not decrease until the slope of the logarithmic transform is also negative. So, dear readers, if you want to track things like Dr. Birx, take a daily excursion into the above link and click on the logarithmic options on these charts. (At the moment, the logarithmic cases chart DOES show a flattening of the curve ... good news!) A flattening of the deaths chart will be delayed by a week or two.

Real Numbers?

Just heard that the true number of diagnosed coronavirus cases in China was 2.9 million ... see: Breitbart Story ... which would suggest that the number of deaths there was around 116,000 (@4% mortality). Of course, if asymptomatic cases there were as much as 10 times higher, that would have put the real cases at close to 30 million. Wow! This would suggest herd immunity in at least parts of the country.

If you will recall, kind reader in my blog entry Epidemiology, I estimated that the real numbers in China may have been 850,000 cases and 115,000 deaths.  Guess I was way off on the cases, but remarkably close on the deaths.

We’re zeroing in on what the real numbers might have been. Wouldn’t it have been special if China fessed up in the first place. (It still could do so ...)

Them vs. Us

- China is frequent source of pandemics, US isn’t (so far)

- China lies about number of COVAD-19 cases and deaths, US doesn't

- China “disappears” whistle blowers, US puts them on TV

- China supresses dissension, Trump allows it in his pressers

- China doesn’t find virus treatment and vaccine, US does

- China invokes martial law to stop virus spread, US requests “social distancing”

- Chinese try to escape the virus by coming to America, Americans aren’t going the other way

Islamic US Terror

When President Trump started out after his inauguration in 2017 by banning travel to the US from terrorist countries, his opponents called it a “Muslim travel ban” ... instead of a “terrorist travel ban.” After much liberal judicial blockage, Trump finally prevailed.  The question then demands itself, “Has this made any difference?”

To answer this intriguing query, I found the following listing of Islamic terror attacks on US soil ... see: The Religion of Peace. To compare Trump’s first three years with Obama’s last three years I discovered the following interesting terrorism incidents comparison:

Trump — 12 deaths, 32 injuries  ... in 13 incidents
Obama — 84 deaths, 289 injuries ... in 18 incidents

And, as it turns out, 7 of the 13 incidents under Trump were committed not by immigrants but by American converts to Muslim radicalism.

I realize that this is not a perfect comparison because there is still two months left in Trump’s three-year period ... but, then again, Trump did not get his travel ban in effect until December, 2017.

I have thought domestic Islamic terrorism had quieted down under Trump ... but will the national media give our current orange-haired president any credit for this progress?  ... [crickets]

The Confessional

Donald Trump: Father I have sinned. It has been two weeks since my last confession.
Priest: Yes my son ... what sins have you committed during this time?
Trump: Well Father I did covet my neighbor's wife and made advances toward her.
Priest: Did you consummate this relationship?
Trump: No. but I sure tried hard enough.
Priest: Anything else?
Trump: Yes, Father ... I spoke with profanity ... but I didn't use the Lord's name in vain. I did call Rosie O'Donnell a fat pig.
Priest: That's OK. She is. What else?
Trump: I refused to pay the full bill of an architect who did a lousy job.
Priest: Did you compensate him fairly?
Trump: According to my lawyers, I did.
Priest: Is that it?
Trump: Just one more thing ... I fat-shamed an employee who broke her personal contract and gained 40 pounds.
Priest: OK, then Mr. Trump. Say 20 Hail Mary's and 10 Our Father's ... and apologize to that woman.

Priest: Next!

Hellary Clinton: Father I have sinned. It's been 30 years since my last confession.
Priest: What sins have you committed?
Clinton: Well, Father, by my inaction, I caused the deaths of four of my employees ... and then lied about it to their parents.
Priest: OK, anything else that you want to confess?
Clinton: Yes, Father, I started two wars in the Middle East that have cost hundreds of thousands of innocent lives.
Priest: (Gulp) And?
Clinton: I also have been careless with state secrets which may have changed the international balance of power and even cost the lives of some secret agents.
Priest (fidgeting): Sigh! ... anything else?
Clinton: Yes, my husband has raped some women and violated others ... and I destroyed their reputations in the national media.
Priest (now profusely sweating): I hope there's nothing else.
Clinton: Yes there is. I sold access to our government for a bunch of big contributions to a phony charity my family controls and uses as a honey pot.
Priest: Please! No more!
Clinton: Not enough time to list them all ... but, oh yes, I have committed perjury and have frequently borne false witness to the American people..
Priest: Stop! I am going to have to take this up with the Bishop. Come back next month for your penances ... but, in the meantime, don't run for any public office.

Blame Game

So far this year 41 illegal immigrants have died in just one small stretch of Texas ranch land just over the Mexican border ... see: KRGV News. Whose fault are these deaths? The local ranchers? The U.S. Border Patrol? The  Mexican government? To this observer, it is the entity who has encouraged this border jumping to begin with ... and that is the U.S. government ... or more particularly our "dreamer" president.

Although, I am sure if you asked Obummer, he would blame the Republicans.