Recession Cheerleaders

Bill Maher is hoping for an American recession in order to help defeat Trump in next year’s election ... see: Daily Wire Story. And he is not alone. Many liberals would love to see the China trade war so damage the US economy that voters would reject Trump in 2020. Remember, “It’s the economy, stupid!”in 1992 which turned out to be prophetic?

How deranged can you get that you would pull out the pompoms to cheer for your team’s loosing?

By the Numbers

Have the Trump tax rate cuts worked? Have tax receipts gone up despite large corporate and personal tax rate reductions? Well, here are the numbers: Tax Policy Center Table. Study them carefully and then I will chime in ...

As can be seen (in current dollars), federal tax receipts went up slightly from 2017 to 2018, the first year of the tax rate cut ... this is due to our economy growing even faster ... so it did pay for itself. But this increase was still slower than Trump had promised ... and he blames this on the Fed’s seven interest rate hikes in 2017 and 2018.

And such economic growth and tax receipt growth are forecast to increase again this year. After accounting for our low inflation, this increase (in constant dollars) is even greater. However, these 2019 and 2020 forecasts may be cut back due to the drag being felt from our trade war with China.

Unfortunately, Trump is emulating Obama with his firehouse spending ... making our deficit to expand once again and causing concern for our longer-term economic strength.  Yes, we can attribute this to a rebuilding of our military and locked-in entitlement spending growth. But we don’t have too many more years of such deficits before things will really bite. The forecasted deficits displayed in this table are a little scary.

More Fed rate cuts and a settlement to the China trade war would be helpful.

2019 Predictions

- Trump is impeached ... not convicted n Senate ...  but McConnell votes guilty

- China will not cave in trade war ... 25% tariffs happen  ... Apple and Nike declare bankruptcy

- US to pull out of Afghanistan, entire Pentagon resigns

- "Hard" Brexit ... Theresa May becomes Angela Merkel's sex slave

- Russia puts missiles in Venezuela which then sells them to North Korea

- Paul Ryan leaves his family, returns to DC as very high priced lobbyist

- Michelle O announces she is transgender and will run in 2020

- Trump reveals that his presidency is just a Reality TV gig

- Facebook transitions into a porn website, Zuckerberg and Sandberg star

- Mueller indicts Jared Kushner for eating bacon

- John Roberts becomes swing vote on Supreme Court ... somehow upholds ACA without the Individual Mandate