More Real Data

Now there is a fourth antibody study ... Miami/Dade ... with results similar to New York’s. Many more people showing that they had been infected with COVID-19 (16x) ... and thus a far lower death rate (just north of 0.1%) ... much more like the seasonal flu ... see: Washington Examiner Story.

So, dear reader, try to readjust your thinking to these real numbers ... if that is now possible.

Real Numbers?

Just heard that the true number of diagnosed coronavirus cases in China was 2.9 million ... see: Breitbart Story ... which would suggest that the number of deaths there was around 116,000 (@4% mortality). Of course, if asymptomatic cases there were as much as 10 times higher, that would have put the real cases at close to 30 million. Wow! This would suggest herd immunity in at least parts of the country.

If you will recall, kind reader in my blog entry Epidemiology, I estimated that the real numbers in China may have been 850,000 cases and 115,000 deaths.  Guess I was way off on the cases, but remarkably close on the deaths.

We’re zeroing in on what the real numbers might have been. Wouldn’t it have been special if China fessed up in the first place. (It still could do so ...)