Obvious Truth

The comparison is frequently made that the coronavirus mortality rate ... taking account of the multipliers discovered with antibody tests ... approximates that of the seasonal flu (0.1%). What is often forgotten is that vast swaths of our population get a flu shot every year. So, isn’t the coronavirus death rate, on an equivalent basis, really substantially less than the unvaccinated seasonal flu?

More Real Data

Now there is a fourth antibody study ... Miami/Dade ... with results similar to New York’s. Many more people showing that they had been infected with COVID-19 (16x) ... and thus a far lower death rate (just north of 0.1%) ... much more like the seasonal flu ... see: Washington Examiner Story.

So, dear reader, try to readjust your thinking to these real numbers ... if that is now possible.

Antibody Study

Another antibody study (in Los Angeles) has been released that suggests that actual COVID-19 infections might be as much as 55 times higher than the diagnosed cases. This agrees with the recent Stanford study in Santa Clara that put the multiplier at between 48x and 82x ... see: Herd Immunity.

Now, New York State is performing its own antibody tests this week and, if its results also agree with these asymptomatic multipliers, we might not only be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but, at least on the major East Coast and Midwest areas of the US, we might be achieving herd immunity ... meaning we are almost out of the tunnel.

Let’s look at where I live ... Massachusetts. As of today, diagnosed cases here total almost 40,000. Multiplying this by 55 suggests we might have as many as 2.2 million diagnosed and undiagnosed cases. The current population of the Bay State is 6.98 million ... meaning that the overall infection rate here might be 38% ... obviously much higher in and around Boston.

Again, the high end of herd immunity approximations is 90% ... which means that the number of cases in major East Coast and Midwest metropolitan areas might be rapidly approaching herd immunity ... and that mortality rates here might be almost the same as the seasonal flu (0.1%) ... much lower than previously thought. The major delta seems to be the much more rapid speed of COVID-19 infections in cities with higher personal proximity particularly in public transportation systems.

I suspect we will know better soon.

Proposal

Every year the seasonal flu (H1N1) kills between 11,000 and 95,000 Americans ... see: Seasonal Flu Statistics. This new Wuhan flu (COVID-19) is now estimated to kill 60,000 of us this year ... which has caused us to close down our economy almost completely ... see: New Model Estimates

Following this Wuhan-flu logic, might we not ...  from now on ... close down our US economy during our seasonal flu outbreak ... late Fall, Winter and early Spring ... every year? And everyone must wear masks and social-distance from each other?

Liar?

Trump haters have one consistent mantra, “He lies, then lies about his lies.” They even document and count up these falsehoods into the tens of thousands. Pathological maybe?

How come, given this tidal wave of mendacity, I can’t recall a single “you can keep your doctor” moment? In a recent presser, Trump claimed that the mortality rate of the seasonal flu was “point zero one percent” (0.01%). Actually, the number is 0.1%. Was that a lie? Obviously not even though I strongly suspect it is number 16,743 on the Washington Post tally, I’m also reasonably sure that Trump knows the real facts about seasonal flu mortality. He just misstated things.

When Trump addresses the American people, he elides the facts, he blusters, he quotes disputed data, he makes mistakes, he even zings his enemies  ... but I have yet to detect downright malicious lies by the Orangeman.

If you have, dear reader, please cull through Washington Post’s compendium of Trump falsehoods and relate back to us one of his super duper whoppers.