A Conundrum

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo indicated that preliminary results of statewide random testing of residents showed that roughly 2.9 million residents or 13.9% showed evidence of COVID-19 antibodies (21% in New York City) ... see: AP Story. So far the number of diagnosed cases in the state are over 262,000 ... which suggests that the key multiplier in New York is slightly more than 11x. The multiplier in LA was estimated at 55x ... and that in Sant Clara at between 48x and 82x ... see: Antibody Study.

The interesting conundrum about these statistics is the dichotomy between the East Coast and the West Coast ... the West Coast having fewer cases on a percentage basis ... but higher multipliers between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cases ... and the East Coast, just the opposite (so far).

The most obvious possible resolutions to this conundrum are fourfold (or combinations thereof):

- COVID-19 actually infected the West Coast late last year ... before it was recognized as such ... producing all those there with antibodies. These infections have not been counted in the current numbers.

- There are different strains of coronavirus on the East And West Coasts

- The data collection processes are flawed ... either sloppy ... or purposefully biased

- On the West Coast, personal cars are the transportation of choice ... on the East Coast, it is often unsanitary public transportation


Do you have other ideas? To stay up to date with this “invisible enemy” see: Latest Data.

Antibody Study

Another antibody study (in Los Angeles) has been released that suggests that actual COVID-19 infections might be as much as 55 times higher than the diagnosed cases. This agrees with the recent Stanford study in Santa Clara that put the multiplier at between 48x and 82x ... see: Herd Immunity.

Now, New York State is performing its own antibody tests this week and, if its results also agree with these asymptomatic multipliers, we might not only be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but, at least on the major East Coast and Midwest areas of the US, we might be achieving herd immunity ... meaning we are almost out of the tunnel.

Let’s look at where I live ... Massachusetts. As of today, diagnosed cases here total almost 40,000. Multiplying this by 55 suggests we might have as many as 2.2 million diagnosed and undiagnosed cases. The current population of the Bay State is 6.98 million ... meaning that the overall infection rate here might be 38% ... obviously much higher in and around Boston.

Again, the high end of herd immunity approximations is 90% ... which means that the number of cases in major East Coast and Midwest metropolitan areas might be rapidly approaching herd immunity ... and that mortality rates here might be almost the same as the seasonal flu (0.1%) ... much lower than previously thought. The major delta seems to be the much more rapid speed of COVID-19 infections in cities with higher personal proximity particularly in public transportation systems.

I suspect we will know better soon.