None of this makes any sense. Looking at the latest COVID-19 statistics leaves me scratching my head. Before we go any further, please, dear reader, inspect the graphs of new cases and new deaths in the United States as per WaPo ... see: Washington Post Stastics.
You should immediately notice that we are currently living through a spike in new cases ... twice what they were in April at their height ... yet hospitalizations, ICU COVID admission and deaths are all substantially lower than at that previous peak. How can this be? There are a number of possible answers. Let me deal with new cases and new deaths separately:
New Cases
- It is certainly possible that our poor testing capacity and reliability back in April considerably undercounted the new cases. Now with more and better testing, our number of new cases are closer to reality.
- Most of the current increase in new cases are occurring in our South and Southwest. This might have something to do with American ex-patriots returning from Mexico and other Central and South American hot spots for treatment here at home.
- Yes, the economic reopening of many states has caused many more group gatherings ... which might be upping the virus spread. But then so must have been the weeks of racial protests, rioting and looting.
- Changing measurements. For some stupid reason, possibly political, the criteria for measuring new cases has become considerably more liberal ... inflating case counts. Read the following explanation of this shift from a previous blog: Fudge ... including the inbedded Conservative Treehouse hyperlink.
New Deaths
This new deaths statistic has, until most recently, showed a remarkable divergence from the number of new cases ... even after an appropriate lag of two or three weeks. This can be the result of a few factors:
- After being embarrassed by the huge number of such deaths occurring in nursing homes in New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, the governors of all the states have instituted remedial measures to correct this problem.
- Many more of the current new cases must be younger people ... who have a much lower morbidity likelihood profile.
- One cannot discount the new therapeutics that have been developed to treat COVID ... as well as the improvements coming from the medical treatment learning curve.
- Nonetheless, we are beginning to see new deaths creep up. I am at a loss to explain this ... other than the obvious result in the spike in new cases ... or a new way of classifying such deaths ... or maybe even political bias insinuating itself in. See also the following explanation found on a site displaying such data:
Criteria for reporting deaths has changed in some states and cities, and numbers in this story may fluctuate as jurisdictions adjust their counting and reporting procedures. For instance, in mid-April, New York City added more than 3,700 deaths of people who were presumed to have the coronavirus but were never tested, and New Jersey added more than 1,800 on June 25.
