Today’s Poser

Would all you never-Trumpers turn back the clock to 2016 ... including giving up all your IRA gains, our employment expansions, our trading policy improvements, our progress against terrorism, our energy independence, etc. ... in order to get your favorite liberal candidate elected in 2020?

Results

But he did call Stormy Daniels "horseface."

The DMV Solution?

Oracles are in a quandary about the projected effect of automation on future employment levels. One dire prediction concludes that 50% of all current jobs will disappear. It has become an accepted theme that robots and AI are going to create massive unemployment around the world resulting in social dislocations and disruption. One obvious answer is what I will call the DMV solution. When you go to the Department of Motor Vehicles for a driver's license, you wait in one line to get a form, then in another to  submit it, then in another possibly for a photograph, then in another to take an eye test, then in another possibly to take a written test, and finally go to someone else to take a road test.

This means that it takes six (or more) DMV employees to serve just one function, getting your license ... and there are many other functions of this agency ... a formula for full employment at the DMV. Yes, the DMV is a government agency and government agencies are notorious for make-work jobs for the relatives of politicians. And as distasteful as this process is, it is a fact of life.

I suspect that, if robots and AI are going to deplete the number of current productive jobs, that the world will eventually move toward a DMV-like world. All kinds of new service jobs will pop up.... like today's personal trainers and dog walkers ... that will help compensate for the jobs lost to automation. I don't think we will turn off our A/Cs and have Nubian boys fanning us, but there will be lots of new job categories created to fill the voids. But, of course, the really good jobs will be the robot builders and repairers.

President's Report Card

Yes, here comes another list. Since Obummer is on his way out the door, it seems time to grade his performance as president. I realize that most liberals might disagree, but I am trying to be fair:

Economic Growth                    D

Employment Growth                C

Personal Income Growth          F

Tax Reform                                 F

Entitlement Reform                   F    

Regulation Reform                    F

National Security                      D

Rhetoric                                       A

Immigration Control                  F

Military Readiness                     D

Environmental Gains                  C

Terrorism Pushback                    D

International Relations                F

Race Relations                              F

Education Improvement              D

Infrastructure Rebuild.                 D

Trade Relations                            F

Debt Reduction                            F

Golf Game                                      B

March Madness Brackets             C

The Rooster Crowing

The 2008 recession, that Obama inherited, cut 8.7 million jobs out of the U.S. economy … and now, just after 4 ½ years in office, this administration can crow about returning this same number to the job market … see: CNN Story. This is obviously good news … but there are three clouds to this silver lining:

-        During this same period the population of this country has grown by 11.7 million. For employment levels to be equivalent on a percentage basis to what they were in 2008, our economy would have to have grown jobs by an additional 7 million (see previous link).

-        It is estimated that, of the 8.7 million new jobs created under Obama, almost one million of them are on a part-time or contract basis (see: Sun Times Story). This typically means no health-care, no bonuses, and few of the many other perks afforded to full-time employees. One reason for this plethora of part-timers obviously has to be Obamacare.

-        Average weekly earnings of our working population has stagnated over this same 4 ½ years … growing less than 2% per year since Obama’s inauguration … whereas median earnings have grown at almost 3% … see: Social Securit Administration Numbers. This of course is a function of the level of part-time and contract employment … but it also highlights the growing inequality of incomes within our economy. This is something that Obama decries but does not seem to be able to do anything to correct.

So when you see the Barack rooster crowing about his record on job growth, you can now, being in the know, quietly smile to yourself … or, like myself, shout at the TV.