Demographics

“Demographics are the future.” Someone once said this basic truism which one would be wise to study and use as the basis for understanding our changing destiny.

China has roughly three times the population of the United States and the United States has roughly three times the population of Russia. This comparison , by itself, explains much of the jockeying in international relations. Now, fast forward to the year 2100 ... and China will have only twice the population of the U.S. and India will have many more people than China. Is this why the Orangeman is now in New Delhi?

Anyway, demographics are a fascinating study .... and, if I have peaked you’re interest, I have found a fascinating website that is chock full of compelling  demographics ... by gender ... by age ...by country ... and, by one and five year increments, 80 years into the future ... see  Population Pyramid.

If you can’t spend an afternoon running barefoot through these numbers ... and thinking about the implications ... you have no curiosity.

Apolitical Science

It would seem to this observer that there are a number of reasonable and apolitical steps that should be taken by real scientists when investigating the future energy needs of our world:

- For hundreds of million years hydrocarbons (coal, oil, tar and natural gas) were created as a result of plants capturing the energy of the sun and then, through natural forces, storing it underground for our future use. We need to know what might be the sum total of BTUs that were created during this period (a truly huge number) and how much of this energy might be realistically recoverable given probable scientific advances. And what are the possible error boundaries of these estimates?

- How much of this hydrocarbon energy has already been expended since we stopped depending on wood, wind and whale oil ... and how many years, decades or centuries might this energy reservoir sustain the entire world given realistic demographic and per-person usage projections. And what are the possible error boundaries to these estimates?

- Given these estimates and their error boundaries, at what point will the world likely need significant new energy sources and what might these energy sources be? Hydroelectric? Nuclear? Fusion? Tidal? Geothermal? Wind? Solar? or the possible requirement for some new energy technology? What are the possible risks and error boundaries associated with each of these options?

- What are the realistic apolitical economic and social implications of each of these paths to supplying our longer-term energy needs and what are the error boundaries therein?

- What are the chances that this will occur?

Demographics

"Demographics is destiny" -- Arthur Kemp

- Between 2015 and 2050 world population is expected to increase by 2.4 billion, 1.3 billion in Africa, 0.9 billion in Asia and 0.2 billion in the rest of the world

- China has almost three times the population of the United States

- Because of its past one-child policy, China's population is declining and is disproportionally male

- The United States, at over 326 million, has almost three times the population of Russia

- There are roughly 22 million illegal aliens in the U.S. (about 7%)

- The population of illegal immigrants in federal prisons is about 21%

- In 2018, the U.S. allowed in 1.5 million LEGAL immigrants

- Since the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973, there have been 60 million abortions in America

- In 2020, there will be more Hispanic voters in the U.S. than the black voters

- Russia lost over 20 million people in World War II and is still suffering a serious population decline

- At 127 million, the population of Japan is declining and should fall well below 100 million by 2100

The Easter Island Effect

The son of a blogster I frequently quote, The Diplomad, has written an interesting and thought-provoking article on the economic malaise that is currently eating at Japan. His name is Yonathan Amselem and he is at the Mises Institute, a libertarian think tank in Alabama .. see How Central Planners Crippled Japan's Economy. This man has obviously studied this Japanese issue thoroughly and is much more versed on its pluses and minuses than I. But he has provoked a thought in me ... suggested by his reference to the Japanese demographics which brought to mind Easter Island and what I will call the Easter Island Effect.

He points out that more adult diapers are sold in Japan than baby diapers. This is a clear indication that the population there is aging and in decline ... losing its youthful vigor.

Japan is a densely populated island with few natural resources which early-on resulted in its foray into brutal colonialism and even greater territorial ambitions in the mid twentieth century ... which was eventually slapped back by Harry Truman's A-bomb. As a release, after rebuilding its war-ravaged infrastructure, this nation's industrious population embraced the management and quality-control teachings of W. Edwards Deming (see: Wikipedia Entry) and went on a manufacturing and trading blitzcreig that lasted for forty years ... until the meddlesome government as described by Mr. Amselem started botching things up.

Back to the Easter Island Effect. Easter Island once had a very industrious population which created huge stone statues to its gods called moais. However, at Easter Island, being extremely remote and unable to expand geographically, demographics eventually took over and its civilization collapsed ... see: Wikipedia Entry. An analogy can be drawn between Easter Island and Japan in that demographics may be the bigger culprit in Japan's economic malaise than its meddlesome government.

Just a provoked thought ...

The Next Caliphate

The Muslim religion has often had an unique proselytizing strategy ... either convert to our way of worship or we will kill you. And this impetus has been abetted by the promise that any Muslims dying in the pursuit of this end will be richly rewarded in the afterlife. These unyielding stratagems have worked at least twice in the past ... first when the Bedouins helped Islam conquer almost half of the known world and, secondly, during the growth of the Ottoman Empire. For a bloody maddeningly complicated and a maddeningly bloody exposition of this history of Islam, see: Wikipedia Entry.

Now Islam appears to be entering another ascendancy with the creation of multiple radical sub-sects spread throughout the Mideast desiring finally to create the ultimate world-wide caliphate. This, interestingly, corresponds with the leader of the free world, the President of the United States, having grown up in a Muslim world, clearly exhibiting a sympathetic prejudice to this quest. And, for some mysterious reason which escapes me, much of the rest of the Western progressive movement seems to be following in lock-step with our fearless leader.

And since there are something like 1.5 billion Muslims in the world, this is not a trivial threat. Even if only 1% of this this populous is radicalized, this still means 15 million bad guys are to be dealt with ... the ones who may be naively trying to recreate this caliphate. Fortunately for the rest of us ... some 7 billion of other religions or no religion ... there are at least three major countries which are not ready to rollover to this existential threat ... Russia, China and India. I am tempted also to include the United States and France, but not quite yet ... perhaps after the next presidential election. The rest of  Europe, particularly Germany, seems still to have the scales firmly attached to their eyes.

I can't believe that, given the firepower of the protagonists mentioned above ... and the demographic imbalances ... that this will turn out well for the caliphate antagonists ... particularly if the protagonists can garner the gumption to resist. Of course when Iran gets atom bombs ... combined with those that Pakistan already has ... this shifts the odds slightly.

Afterthought: The motivation for many liberals (Western European politicians, the Clinton Foundation, John Kerry and much of the Obama administration) to embrace Muslims and Muslim causes may be little more than money ... 30 talents of silver ... the cash crumbs that fall from the oil-rich tables of Mideastern potentates.

Demographics

I’ve only studied a bit of econometrics, but I know enough of it to know that most long-term economic growth has its real basis in demographic expansion.  Yes, a country like Russia can experience a spurt of economic growth, based on new energy discoveries, while at the same time showing negative population growth.  And there are other abnormal instances of explosive population growth which does not translate into strong economic numbers … such as currently being experienced in the Gaza Strip.  (This situation seems particularly driven by an aberrant political objectives and not natural economics.) 

But for liberals to espouse zero or negative population growth strikes me as national suicide … see: Breitbart Story.  One needs only fly across the United States a view the vast tracks of nothingness to realize that, were this country to reach the population density just in the Rockies, of say Switzerland, we could support many times more people than currently.  And this would in turn drive economic expansion and dynamic/dramatic technical developments.  Let us have faith in what has previously worked.  The most important thing that our political leaders should strive for is that this expanding population stay a melting pot and not become a Cobb salad … and focus on fulfilling more important objectives than applauding Beyonce’s hip wiggling or choosing the brackets for March Madness. 

The Fix

There are myriad theories about why Romney lost the recently-completed U.S. Presidential election … changing demographics (perhaps Rubio would have been a better V.P. choice after all), class warfare used as the wedge issue, voter fraud, etc. But, to me, I return to my oft-repeated theme … it was an election in which the heart prevailed over the head. Women, who vote in increasingly greater numbers than men, voted for Obama 55% versus 44% for Romney. This was a voting margin that outstrips all others in terms of importance.

Therefore the problem for the Republicans in future elections is enormous … not one that can be reversed with small solutions. Thus, to get back on the winning track, Republicans need a sea-change fix … and I think I have their answer … Sharia Law. I believe that, if the Republicans were to co-opt the Democrats and urge that our Constitution be modified to comport with Sharia Law (see: Sharia Law Tenets), our country would benefit greatly. For instance:

- The 19th Amendment would be obviated, particularly for Christians and Jews, and these women would lose their right to vote. This clearly would solve most of the Republican’s electoral problems.

- The current trend toward public nudity or near-nudity would also be reversed. Lady Gaga could not appear on stage except according to the hajib dress code.

- Since women would be severely restricted as to what jobs or education they could seek, our unemployment problem would be solved overnight.

- Women would be forbidden to drive cars … suddenly solving many of our traffic jams.

- Iran would stop its nuclear sabre rattling and embrace the United States as brothers … Israel, not so much.

- Homosexuality would be forced back into the shadows (so as not to elicit stoning to death) … no more Gay Pride parades with their concomitant public displays of sexual acts.

- Our Supreme Court Justices Breyer and Ginsburg would be mollified in their notion that the laws of foreign lands must be considered in adjudicating domestic legal cases.

- Our crime rates would drop dramatically or, otherwise, we would have legions of one-handed thieves.

- Our divorce rates would also plummet … as adultery would no longer be an acceptable diversion from the monotony of marriage.


Need I go on?.

Afterthought:  Perhaps alcohol consumption in the United States might also be dramatically reduced under Sharia Law?