A Conundrum

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo indicated that preliminary results of statewide random testing of residents showed that roughly 2.9 million residents or 13.9% showed evidence of COVID-19 antibodies (21% in New York City) ... see: AP Story. So far the number of diagnosed cases in the state are over 262,000 ... which suggests that the key multiplier in New York is slightly more than 11x. The multiplier in LA was estimated at 55x ... and that in Sant Clara at between 48x and 82x ... see: Antibody Study.

The interesting conundrum about these statistics is the dichotomy between the East Coast and the West Coast ... the West Coast having fewer cases on a percentage basis ... but higher multipliers between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cases ... and the East Coast, just the opposite (so far).

The most obvious possible resolutions to this conundrum are fourfold (or combinations thereof):

- COVID-19 actually infected the West Coast late last year ... before it was recognized as such ... producing all those there with antibodies. These infections have not been counted in the current numbers.

- There are different strains of coronavirus on the East And West Coasts

- The data collection processes are flawed ... either sloppy ... or purposefully biased

- On the West Coast, personal cars are the transportation of choice ... on the East Coast, it is often unsanitary public transportation


Do you have other ideas? To stay up to date with this “invisible enemy” see: Latest Data.

Urban Decay

A sanitary plumbing system was one of the great innovations of urban civilizations. It was designed to supply fresh water to the masses ... and carry away their waste products. Mystically, many West Coast (Democrat) mayors seem to have turned their backs on this invention. And, all across our country, liberal city officials are abdicating other civic duties ... such as workable transportation systems, even-handed law and order, well-educated children, uplifting urban beauty, insuring a disease/vermin-free environment and promoting fiscal responsibility. I wonder why these doofuses think they were elected? To grab a megaphone and call the rest of the us racists?

Is there some Jovian reason they are not supposed to do their jobs?

Armageddon?

I guess we won't really know for a few days, but having watched much of hurricane Irma coverage today, I am getting the impression that it did not live up to its breathless forecasts (except in the Caribbean). I really hope so. The words used to describe what was in store for Florida were super superlatives ... biblical, epic, historical, horrendous, Armageddon, a monster storm, etc. Yes, there has been extensive damage and some loss of life ... but, believing the TV coverage, I was expecting a lot worse. Don't get me wrong, this would be a fortunate turn of events.... for which I would be happy.

But it seems that the TV networks vie for viewership by hyping the size and scope of things. "It's now a category 3 hurricane but, when it passes over the extremely warm waters north of Cuba, it is likely to strengthen back to a category 4 or even a 5." "The wind damage has not been too extensive, but we are really worrying about the storm surge that could be as high as 15 feet. This means that many homes will be flooded to their first floor ceilings or even higher." "Many building cranes in Miami are collapsing or in danger of doing so."

It was initially predicted that the hurricane path was  up the east coast or through the center ... which could devastate all of Florida's major cities. Now the western path somehow seems equally onerous. And one needs to distinguish between "wind gust speed" and "sustained wind speed" ... big difference. Often wind gusts were implied to be sustained in order to exaggerate things. And I didn't see one reporter blown over by Irma. Yes, a few signs were blown down and some tree limbs shorn, but I saw no yachts in people's front yards or roofs blown off. Maybe, this was because of more stringent building codes imposed since the last big one, Andrew (a cat 5 by the way), or perhaps the unprecedented preparation by Florida's Governor Rick Scott?

I truly hope that my first impressions of the consequences of hurricane Irma are borne out and that the damage is just a few tens of billion dollars and not over a hundred billion as projected... and the loss of life is minimal. Armageddon? Maybe not. Fingers crossed.