Fauci Feedback

Yesterday I published a reader contribution summarizing what Dr. Fauci said on a virtual call with some Dartmouth doctors ... see: Reader Contribution. I am not trying to be disrespectful of this doctor ... but I do have some questions about what he said ... the following:

1) Fauci says the the ratio of asymptomatic cases to diagnosed cases in 2:3 (40%). But previous studiies in California, New York and Florida put the ratio at 10:1, 20:1 or even higher. Perhaps our increased testing has changed things ... but this much?

2) Fauci says all ages get infected at the same rate, Take a look at what has happened in California ... see: California Department of Public Heath. No quite the same Anthony!

3) Fauci says that all vaccines were started from virus samples from China. I’m not sure that, if I were a drug company ready to make this huge investment, I would trust China for such a starter sample.


There was some happy news however — Fauci said that a vaccine may be approved by October! Will this be the October surprise by the Republicans? And will the Dems use scare tactics against such a vaccine breakthrough? Watch and see!

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Reader Contribution

On a Zoom call this morning a classmate had to break out early for another virtual meeting with Dr. Fauci. The following is his promised report of what transpired. We thank Rick for this first-hand info:

Per my promise to share the Fauci call and the college's latest communication to students:

Fauci had personal/professional links with all the half dozen Dartmouth Drs who asked questions ... - Main takeaways (answers to questions):

1. Microbal world will continue to interact with human world so this will not be the last pandemic - it is unusual in that it is demographically broad (unlike HIV), not subtle - and has shut the world down.

2. Masks are critical but rejected by the young who don't take the virus seriously and by politics.

3. Opening schools needs to use national guidelines and experiences but ultimately be based on local situations eg low incidence of virus ok to open, high no, teachers protected like others at high risk eg  masks/face shields ok.

4. All ages seem to get infected at about the same rate - 40% of carriers are asymptomatic - young are now becoming more worrisome as carriers as they are showing a higher load of the virus in their nasal passages than adults. (Grandkids have always been little petri dishes...)

5. There are 165 vaccines in development world wide, 127 are in various stages of testing; the speed with which these are being developed is because of the ability with new technologies to rapidly process, grow and analyze the virus once samples came from China - allowed getting to phase one in 3 months versus 18 months previously; some of the stage 1 tests have produced responses as good as getting the disease, so should get some final results in about 3 months.

Cheers -

Rick

A Conundrum

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo indicated that preliminary results of statewide random testing of residents showed that roughly 2.9 million residents or 13.9% showed evidence of COVID-19 antibodies (21% in New York City) ... see: AP Story. So far the number of diagnosed cases in the state are over 262,000 ... which suggests that the key multiplier in New York is slightly more than 11x. The multiplier in LA was estimated at 55x ... and that in Sant Clara at between 48x and 82x ... see: Antibody Study.

The interesting conundrum about these statistics is the dichotomy between the East Coast and the West Coast ... the West Coast having fewer cases on a percentage basis ... but higher multipliers between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cases ... and the East Coast, just the opposite (so far).

The most obvious possible resolutions to this conundrum are fourfold (or combinations thereof):

- COVID-19 actually infected the West Coast late last year ... before it was recognized as such ... producing all those there with antibodies. These infections have not been counted in the current numbers.

- There are different strains of coronavirus on the East And West Coasts

- The data collection processes are flawed ... either sloppy ... or purposefully biased

- On the West Coast, personal cars are the transportation of choice ... on the East Coast, it is often unsanitary public transportation


Do you have other ideas? To stay up to date with this “invisible enemy” see: Latest Data.