Democrat Euphemisms

Women’s reproductive rights ... Translation: abortions

Voter suppression ... Translation: keeping dead people and illegal aliens from voting

Government investments ... Translation: fire-hose government spending

Sensible gun controls ... Translation: abolishing the 2nd Amendment

Government spending cuts ... Translation: reductions in the rate of spending growth

Compassionate immigration reform ... Translation: open borders

Free trade ... Translation: unfair trade

Trump Russian collusion ... Translation: Hillary lost

Prison reform ... Translation: cut ‘em loose

Working class ... Translation: welfare recipients

One man one vote ... Translation: voter fraud

Freedom of the press ... Translation: libel law avoidance

Sanctuary cities ... Translation: protecting criminal illegal aliens from deportation

White supremacists ... Translation: all Caucasian males

Shovel-ready jobs ... Translation: non-infrastructure spending

Glee

There is quite of bit of giddy glee surrounding the fact that the federal deficit seems to be shrinking.  The original projection for the 2013 deficit was approximately $900 billion.  Now analysts are forecasting $775 billion (or even lower) … a drop of $125 billion … see: NY Times Story.  How can this be?  We already knew that our government had overspent its continuing resolution “budget” by $30.5 billion for the first five months of this year … see: CNS News Story.  So for the next seven months from March 1^st until October 1^st, the deficit projection will have shrunk by $156 billion ($125 billion + $31 billion).  Yes, we have had tax increases (payroll tax stets, higher tax rates on high-income earners, and numerous other money grabs hidden under Obamacare) and $43 billion of spending cuts under the sequestration agreement, but a 17% deficit reduction (or almost 30% on an annualized basis) is quite a bit beyond most economists’ forecasts and my own expectations (see: The Uninformed Voter).

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Is this deficit reduction real?  Nancy Pelosi credits Obamacare for this reduction … see: Breitbart Story.  And the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) points to Obama’s tax increases on the wealthy … see: The Hill Story.  But, longer-term, everyone seems to agree that a short-term reduction in federal deficits will disappear by 2015 because of U.S. entitlement programs … see: Money Magazine Story.  That is, this will occur unless and until we come to a “grand bargain” on entitlement reform.  I don’t know about you, but I am not holding my breath.  One last thought, if the Democrats can convince American voters that increasing taxes results in lower deficits (a distinct possibility), then we are likely in for another economic slowdown and some rough fiscal sledding ahead.

One thing also not to be overlooked is that this year’s new budget deficit projection is still $317 billion above what President George W. Bush posted in his last full year in office (2008) … which was $458 billion.

Afterward: Actually, new government forecasts place this year's deficit at $643 billion ... see: AP Story.  Yet the Treasury Dept. is having to stand on its head to avoid cracking the debt limit.  Something is fishy here ... the projected deficit is another $132 billion down from what Goldman Sachs recently forecast above (and Treasury Secretary Lew is an old Goldman alum) ... and a $288 billion decrease in the deficit in the last 7 months of this fiscal year.  How can this be?  Is the government cooking its finances just like it cooked the unemployment data last September?

The Uninformed Voter

Even with the stock market hitting a new high, I think that there is a reasonable chance that the U.S. economy will experience a slow-down, if not a double-dip recession, this year.  The fourth quarter of last year's GNP growth has been revised up to a still-anemic +0.1% and four significant economic events have occurred since then: 1) as a result of the fiscal cliff, an increase of the tax rate on high-earners to almost 40% and on dividends to 20%, 2) an increase in the payroll tax rate on everyone by 2 percentage points, 3) the real start of the myriad taxes and regulations associated with Obamacare, and 4) the $43 billion reduction in federal spending that came with the recent sequestration.  With the continuing government spending resolution due to occur in Congress at the end of this month, there is still another element of uncertainty facing American companies ... causing them to approach any business expansion with caution

OK, given that an economic slow-down might occur, how will it be viewed by the uninformed voters in the U.S.?  Obviously, the Obama Administration will be beating the demagogic drums and blaming such a slowdown on the sequestration events.  But, as can be seen from above, three tax increases will be taking considerable money out of the economy and giving it to the government (see: Breitbart Story) whereas the sequestration might slightly ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve Bank to fund America's crippling deficits ... which, I think, might even be a plus for our economy.  And, given that this country will still be running close to a trillion dollar fiscal deficit this year and the Federal Reserve Bank will still be printing about $85 billion of monetary stimulus each month (with "quantitative easing"), by all logic an economic slowdown should not occur.  So, if and when it does as I predict, it should be fully the responsibility of the Obama Administration and its hostile business and taxing environment.

But do you think that uninformed voters will understand this logic?  Or will they give the Democrats even more (destructive) economic leverage in the Congressional elections of 2014?

Tail Wags the Dog

The "extremists" seemed to have won ... the tail is waging the dog ... at least for the nonce.  The freshman Republicans in the House of Representatives (87 out of 435) ... mostly Tea Party Coalition members have carried the day in the recent dog fight about cutting government spending in exchange for raising our debt ceiling.  This was despite the fact that they represent a small minority in just one half of Congress.  The Senate and the Executive branch are controlled by Democrats.  This is a compelling development.  For once this band of brothers and sisters stuck together and to their guns and insisted on doing what they promised to do when they were elected last November.

And this was also despite the vicious attacks on them from the main-steam media, from many cable-TV talking heads, from almost all Democrat pols, and even from a few RINO Republicans (John McCain called them "hobbits").  To me, how they kept from folding under this onslaught indicates a level of patriotism and statesmanship that is rare in today's political theater.  And, hopefully, this passion will carry over to 2012 when this nation's electorate replicates these voting preferences in the elections for the Senate and the Presidency.  I'm not saying that only Tea Party members should be those elected next year.  What I would prefer is that there be enough moderate Republicans elected that the Tea Party might not over-reach (like the Democrats clearly did in 2009).  However, I do hope that tax reform (that broadens the U.S. tax base), entitlement reform (that insures the future solvency of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security), spending cuts (that better balance the size of the federal government with our economic metrics), and regulation reform (that clears the tracks ahead for U.S. businesses) ... all come out of the fresh-faced government we hopefully elect in 2012.  Do these things well and rigorous U.S. job growth will be resurrected

Yes, this Boehner/Reid bill is not perfect and we have learned that this administration has a way of subverting the intent of the Republican legislators (witness what happened in April of this year when $38 billion in spending cuts in the 2011 budget, in reality, morphed into only $352 million ... see 2011 Budget Bill).  I would have also preferred that this debt-limit bill incorporated movement toward a balanced-budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.  (I am perplexed as to what the Democrat objections to this amendment can be ... perhaps the electorate will ask them this same question a year from this fall?)  Anyhow, it now looks like the Tea Party is on a roll and those who have underrated the power and popularity this grass-roots movement might re-examine their polling results and future campaign strategies.  Just calling them names won't make them go away.

Afterward: Joe Biden just called the Tea Party "terrorists".  Have at 'em Joe!  You make my point.