Doomsday

Oxford University has spent considerable brainpower in assembling the probabilities of the world coming to an end … and has investigated twelve possible ways as outlined in a CNBC Story. These twelve catastrophic events ... with their Oxford-assigned probabilities [and my quick explanation in brackets for those of you who don’t do hyperlinks] are:

-        Unknown consequences – probability: 0.1% [“unc-uncs”]

-        Asteroid impact – probability: 0.00013%

-        Artificial intelligence – probability: 0-10%

-        Super volcano – probability: 0.00003%

-        Ecological collapse – probability: N/A [ala, Easter Island]

-        Bad global governance – probability: N/A [e.g., Obama rules]

-        Global system collapse – probability: N/A [12^th Imam arrives]

-        Extreme climate change – probability: 0.01% [Al Gore is right]

-        Nuclear war – probability: 0.005%

-        Global pandemic – probability: 0.0001% [Ebola, etc.]

-        Synthetic biology – probability: 0.01% [frankenfoods, etc.]

-        Nanotechnology – probability: 0.01%

Now, for whatever reason, mankind is going through a period of considerable hand-wringing over such possible events (perhaps because we now have it so good) … but, as can be seen by the deductions and inductions of these Oxford dons, we should pay the most attention to the dweebs in Silicon Valley for our possible ultimate undoing. (I actually think that social media technology is well on its way.)

Cuban Missile Crisis

Other than the Boca Raton Presidential debate, last night was another special occasion.  It was the 50th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis ... the night when John F. Kennedy went on national television to stare down the Russians and try to force them to remove offensive nuclear missiles from Cuba.  I won't go into the gory details here, but, suffice it to say, most of the world believed that the U.S. and Russia were only hours away from a nuclear Holocaust. If you want more details, see: History Channel.

The purpose of this blog entry is to relate my personal story of this evening full of national angst.  I was, at the time, attending New York University's Graduate School of Business at night working toward an MBA.  This night I had a course in Marketing 101 and I still remember the Professor's name, Hector Lazlo.  Professor Lazlo always passed out a mimeographed outline at the start of each class with bullet points for each topic he would be covering.  This night's topic was The Survey Process.  I was sitting about half-way back in a crowded classroom.  A short way into his lecture, Professor Lazlo got to a bullet point titled "Telephone Survey."  He then, in all seriousness, said: "A telephone survey is when you do a survey over the telephone."

Given the tense atmospherics because of the upcoming JFK speech, this lecture point appeared to me the epitome of inanity.  Basically I said to myself: "The world might be coming to an end tonight and I'm sitting here listening to some asshole tell me that 'a telephone survey is when you do a survey over the telephone'" ... and I started to laugh.  In fact I got a little hysterical.  I was laughing so hard I had to crouch on the floor behind the other students so the Professor wouldn't see me (although he certainly could hear me.)  After a few moments I composed myself and retook my seat.  And I fortunately escaped this incident unscathed

After class, I went home and saw JFK trump Nikita Khrushchev ... and the Ruskies removed the missiles a few days later.  That night, the U.S. also fortunately escaped a nuclear war unscathed.