Stupid Statistics

With great fanfare and a slavishly uncritical media, outgoing Attorney General, Eric Holder, tried to make up for his department's lack of prosecuting that Ferguson, Missouri police officer, Darren Wilson, by making the case that the whole Ferguson police department was a bunch of racists. One particular he stated was that although Ferguson is 63% black, 86% of all traffic stops there were of black people ... ergo the police force is singling out blacks ... exhibiting their inherent racism ... see: New York Times Story. This kind of statistic proves absolutely nothing ... other than it might be that blacks disproportionally break Ferguson's traffic laws. Conveniently, A.G. Holder does not look into this possibility.

If Holder had instead stated that 39% of all Ferguson residents were under the age of 30, yet 56% of all traffic stops were people in this age group ... would this mean that the police there were discriminating against young people? Of course not ... so why are we subjected to his racist statistical extrapolation? Clearly the American public has had the drum-beat of these type of racist accusations for many years without any serious rebuttal ... and thus, we now accept such media tripe as gospel.

Yes, Holder's quoting of some racists e-mails does indicate that there are some bad apples in the Ferguson police department ... but the entire organization? I am more than certain that there is an undercurrent of anti-white police officer rhetoric circulating among Ferguson's young black community. Does this make the entire black community there racists? Of course not ... as was proven during the grand jury testimony when many blacks came forward with testimony which went against the "Hands up, don't shoot" perpetuated myth.

Also the Ferguson police department is faulted for not having proportional representation of the town's races. If this type of statistical syllogism has any merit, then why cannot one say that since 78% of NBA players are black whereas blacks represent only 12.3% of the U.S. population ... that this basketball association is exhibiting reverse racism? Can it not be that black players just tend to be better at this sport?

Why don't we look at such statistical misdirection in the face and conclude that Al Sharpton, Eric Holder and much of the media are also exhibiting as much or more racist tendencies than the Ferguson police department?

One might also read Paul Mirengoff's analysis of this statistical silliness in Powerline Part I . Watch for Part II.

Ferguson Observations

I was surprised last night at the grand jury's decision not to indict Officer Darren Wilson in the Michael Brown shooting in Ferguson, Missouri.  Here are a few of my thoughts on this issue:

- Even though it would have been the expedient thing to do ... the grand jury didn't even find for involuntary manslaughter. Felix Giuliani, a former prosecutor and once mayor of New York City, commented on TV that he and other federal prosecutors felt that this would be the outcome (as did I). However, given that it was unlikely that Officer Wilson would have been convicted of even this lesser charge, as a result, St. Louis and environs only had to suffer one spat of rioting rather than two.

- The civil unrest in Ferguson and around the country, I believe, would have occurred under almost any of the grand jury outcomes ... even possibly a indictment for first-degree murder. This civil mayhem was almost preordained, given the intense media coverage that was present. In fact, this level of media coverage likely contributed to the rioting. Perhaps there should be some retrospection of how, in the future, the media coverage might be less instigating.

- Robert McCulloch, the Ferguson prosecutor's lengthy explanation of the grand jury process was somewhat soothing in that he explained how many "witnesses" testimony had been found wanting ... and how much conflicting testimony still resulted from the more credible onlookers. However, there still were questions that I didn't hear answered ... to wit ... why twelve shots and six wounds? and why was the body left on the street for four hours? To me, I believe that Officer Wilson's juices were flowing as a result of being punched by Brown and that this was part of the problem.

- Being that schools in the area were closed anyway, I don't understand why the grand jury's decision was not announced at, say, 10 AM on today ... or even Thanksgiving day. Surely this might have mitigated the degree of rioting that occurred under the cover of darkness.

- I thought that President Obama said all the right words after the grand jury's decision was announced. However, his presentation was again very matter-of-fact. I constantly wonder why his speaking style never varies during emotional times. I believe it would be the same at the start of World War III as it would be announcing that he has a hang nail.

Insurrection

The Justice for Mike Brown facebook activist group has just published a list of sixty-seven targets not to be looted, rioted at, or somehow violated if the verdict of the grand jury in the Ferguson, Missouri shooting case disappoints … follow this link for the specific targets: The Gateway Pundit Story. This list is comprised of landmarks, prominent St. Louis companies, restaurants, law firms, civic buildings, individuals, markets, banks, hospitals, churches, etc. … many of which seem to have no relation or relevance to the original shooting incident.

The result of the grand jury investigation is expected to be announced sometime soon and this list is obviously meant to concentrate the efforts of the expected “demonstrators” on targets of disrespect and opportunity. And why this list is not an incitement to an insurrection is beyond my limited legal understanding … even though such a purpose is cagily denied. But if and when such locations are trashed or looted or even worse if the grand jury decision in police officer Darren Wilson’s case is not of these rebels liking, I would imaging that this social-media listing comprises a major tort … and should be dealt within the justice system just as this system should deal with Officer Wilson’s possible indictment and trial.

Of course, race or political persuasion seems to be the determining factor driving opinions in this case and, although we, the public, do not have the benefit of all the grand jury testimony, from what I have read, I personally believe Officer Wilson was partly justified in doing what he did. But I do think he will be indicted for at least involuntary manslaughter. The most damaging factors in this whole sorry incident was that the "gentle giant" Michael Brown was shot six times and was left lying in the street for at least four hours before his body was recovered. These assumed facts clearly have caused most of the unrest in the population of this St. Louis suburb … and will be the reasons I expect that Officer Wilson will eventually face a jury of his peers.

However, an insurrections solves nothing as was learned in the Los Angeles “Rodney King” riots of 1965. I do hope that this very dangerous circumstance is avoided or thwarted. But I'm not holding my breath.