Plouffer Nutter

David Plouffe

The person who supposedly got The Barry elected in 2008, David Plouffe, went whistling past the graveyard last week when he said that a high unemployment rate won't sink Obama's chances in next year's election (see: Plouffe Prediction).  Now, since Plouffe is again The Barry's chief campaign strategist and manager, his words carry some import.  Even the conservative columnist, Charles Krauthammer, believes that it will not be the absolute level of unemployment that makes the difference in the upcoming election.  It will be the trend that is important.  If things seem to be getting better, then The Barry might win once again.

Color me sceptical ... both in the validity of these theories and in the outlook for our economy improving.  And the reasons I am chary about The Barry's re-election chances (other than the fact that I think he has been a horrid hack as a President) are as follows:

- The almost trillion dollar stimulus that the Democrats passed shortly after Obama was inaugurated did little other than to insure the retention of state government workers who would have otherwise been laid off (apparently the "saved jobs" that were so cleverly touted).  As The Barry himself has admitted the real intent of that stimulus was a dud, "The shovel-ready jobs weren't as shovel-ready as we thought."  Now the wave of financial crises in many states is causing them to axe many of those same state workers who should have gone packing two years ago.

- The only bright employment sector of the U.S. economy has been federal workers.  Housing prices in and around Washington, DC have been strong ... reflecting continued profligate hiring and hefty pay raises for these pampered federal employees.  If the Republicans get their way with meaningful government spending cuts in exchange for their votes to raise the government debt ceiling, then this rosy federal employment picture should dim considerably. This may be the chief reason Democrats are digging in their heels on this issue ... and would rather raise income taxes instead.  They must be saying to themselves, "These are our voters who will be in the bread lines."

- Worldwide economic malaise, particularly in the European Economic Community is not going to disappear overnight.  When Greece defaults on its debts sometime in the next twelve months (as it most probably will), the repercussions will be felt around the world ... maybe even with cascading defaults in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and even Italy.  This clearly will not boost economic or employment prospects here in the United States.

And I don't think it is an accident that so many top Obama economic advisers are abandoning him ... maybe even to include little Timmy Geithner.  I think that they see the obit writing on the wall ... just as I think I do.