Tuesday, December 04, 2018

Trade Truce


President Trump and China's Xi had a nice dinner in Argentina last week and, afterward, announced a three month delay in the imposition of a 25% tariff on hundreds of $billions of Chinese products entering the U.S. This was in exchange for some vague Beijing promises to buy more agricultural products and other ephemera.

What is really happening here?

I am skeptical based upon past Chinese practices. I believe China's real objective is to stall the resolution of this trade war well into 2019 ... until they can use the advent of the 2020 presidential race (starting later next year) to put political pressure on Trump. The White House team has now blinked once. If they blink again before the April 1st deadline, I believe China will have won this economic conflict ...

 and Trump will not be reelected in 2020.

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