Perplexed

None of this makes any sense. Looking at the latest COVID-19 statistics leaves me scratching my head. Before we go any further, please, dear reader, inspect the graphs of new cases and new deaths in the United States as per WaPo ... see: Washington Post Stastics.

You should immediately notice that we are currently living through a spike in new cases ... twice what they were in April at their height ... yet hospitalizations, ICU COVID admission and deaths are all substantially lower than at that previous peak. How can this be? There are a number of possible answers. Let me deal with new cases and new deaths separately:

New Cases
- It is certainly possible that our poor testing capacity and reliability back in April considerably undercounted the new cases. Now with more and better testing, our number of new cases are closer to reality.
- Most of the current increase in new cases are occurring in our South and Southwest. This might have something to do with American ex-patriots returning from Mexico and other Central and South American hot spots for treatment here at home.
- Yes, the economic reopening of many states has caused many more group gatherings ... which might be upping the virus spread. But then so must have been the weeks of racial protests, rioting and looting.
- Changing measurements. For some stupid reason, possibly political, the criteria for measuring new cases has become considerably more liberal ... inflating case counts. Read the following explanation of this shift from a previous blog: Fudge ... including the inbedded Conservative Treehouse hyperlink.

New Deaths
This new deaths statistic has, until most recently, showed a remarkable divergence from the number of new cases ... even after an appropriate lag of two or three weeks. This can be the result of a few factors:
- After being embarrassed by the huge number of such deaths occurring in nursing homes in New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, the governors of  all the states have instituted remedial measures to correct this problem.
- Many more of the current new cases must be younger people ... who have a much lower morbidity likelihood profile.
- One cannot discount the new therapeutics that have been developed to treat COVID ... as well as the improvements coming from the medical treatment learning curve.
- Nonetheless, we are beginning to see new deaths creep up. I am at a loss to explain this ... other than the obvious result in the spike in new cases ... or a new way of classifying such deaths ... or maybe even political bias insinuating itself in. See also the following explanation found on a site displaying such data:

Criteria for reporting deaths has changed in some states and cities, and numbers in this story may fluctuate as jurisdictions adjust their counting and reporting procedures. For instance, in mid-April, New York City added more than 3,700 deaths of people who were presumed to have the coronavirus but were never tested, and New Jersey added more than 1,800 on June 25.

Fudge

I have been perplexed at the disconnect between the spike in COVID-19 cases and the continued downward slope of the deaths from this virus ... even with a two week plus lag. How can this be? Well I have posited some reasons: the virus is weakening, there are better therapeutics, mostly young people, with less morbidity being infected, etc. But I have not considered another possibility — the new cases numbers are being fudged!

How can this happen ... and why? Well the why is fairly obvious — politics is involved ... more cases equals longer lockdowns and slower economic recovery ... equals problems for the Orangeman. 

The “how” is just now being discovered. In Texas at least, health authorities have changed the definition of those with COVID-19 from one who tests positive for this virus to, ta-da, someone who has been in close contact with this positive person ... whether this “contact” tests positive or not! Clearly, good reason to see the number of cases surge in this state ... see: Conservative Treehouse explanation.

So, can politics affect public health? You bet your bippy!

Now, kind reader, are other fudgings of case counts happening elsewhere? We will have to wait and see. But, if new cases keep surging while new deaths keep to their downward path, one would have to suspect so.

Politics Infects Medicine

There is increasing evidence that politics are infecting the science of medicine. Let me cite just a few incidences:

- A few weeks back four antibody studies (Santa Clara, LA, New York State and Miami/Dade) suggested that coronavirus infections were far higher than previously thought. This meant that death rates were close to those of the seasonal flu ... and we were approaching herd immunity in our hot spots ... not good news for those wishing to keep us locked down. So, why have more such studies disappeared from our news cycles? They must be being performed.

- That famous YouTube video of the two California doctors urging us to rethink our lockdown polices has all but been wiped off the Internet.

- Reported COVID-19 death statistics and resultant model projections are starting to go back up ... after plummeting for three months. Even though hospital and ICU coronavirus admissions are generally going down, many doctors are saying they are being pressured to list COVID as a cause of death in unrelated mortalities. Is this politically or monetarily motivated ?

- There is surprising negative media coverage against seemingly positive developments in the battle against this virus:  Trial results from therapeutics like  remesivir, hydroxychlorquine and other new treatments ... and their pooh-pooling of the Swedish herd-immunity strategy.

- There is a clear red-State, blue-State divide in how to reopen our economy. Libs are clearly more draconian in their ukases and have an extended timetable. Is this medically motivated or just to display hostility to the Orangeman?