Misrepresentation

There are two instances of recent purposeful misrepresentation  from the left that really irk me:

- Trump recently tweeted that, if California did!'t let its  snow runoff water flow out to the Pacific Ocean, then their wildfires might not be as severe. The fake media has changed this criticism to mean that the firefighters in the Golden State didn't have enough water to fight  their  wildfires. Balderdash! What Trump clearly meant was that the environmentalist's attempt to save the snail darter, etc. has kept  the state from using this water to keep its trees and underbrush from dying during periods of drought.  (It is estimated that California now has 14.9 million dead trees.) This dead vegetation and resistance to cutting it down makes them the fuel for these epic wildfires there.

- President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum using national defense as a reason. He indicated that, because of dumping, both these industries in the US were close to death and this was a national security threat and couldn't be allowed to happen as we would need this manufacturing might in case of international conflict. Canadian Premier Trudeau purposely twisted this rationale by saying that his country was not a national security threat to the US. -- a purposeful distortion. No wonder he has attracted Trump's opprobrium.

Headlines

Trump subject to trifecta of sex-scandal lawsuits

Austin bombings suspect killed himself with an explosive device after confrontation, police say

DERSHOWITZ: Special counsel should never have been appointed ...

Xi challanges Trump, Taiwan: China will ive up 'not a single inch of land'

Trump campaign sprints away from Cambridge Analytica

China and Russia are pursuing hypersonic weapons -- and the U.S. can't defend against them

Biden says he would have 'beat the hell out' of Trump in high school

World Bank: 140M+ face forced migration due to climate change

Stormy Daniels: 'There was no sleeping' during time with Trump

Court kills Obama [era] oversight of retirees' savings plans

Claim: NOAA temp tampering nears 2.5 degrees [F] ...

Study: Trump tariffs could add 19K steel amd aluminum jobs

Headlines

Oil industry falls out of love with Trump

After Grand Jury testimony Sam Nunberg doubts Mueller probe leads to Trump

Mother's Day cards go gender neutral ...

Canadian Climate Minister pushes 'gender impact' of climate change

[Liz] Warren at war with fellow Dems

Fact check: China produces as much steel in a month as the U.S. does in a year

[CNN] Goes to strip club for Stormy Daniels performance ...

Oakland [CA] coffee shop will not serve cops for 'safety of customers'

Sessions criticizes federal judges for slowing Trump's national agenda

California has too much green energy

[Trump] Calls NBC's Chuck Todd 'son of a bitch' ...

NRA files suit against Gov. Rick Scott's gun control

Headlines

Demoralized West Wing stkokes fears about Trump's capacity to handle a crisis

Breaking news: Man dies of self-inflicted gunshot wound outside White House

Seven feet of snow in California puts screeching halt to drought ...

Teacher Coalition seeks to end Obama school discipline policy: 'A lot of fear in schools'

'Off the rails': House Russian probe hits a new low

Trump threatens to slap retaliatory tariffs on European cars as trade talks heats up

Report: Icahn dumps $31 million of steel-related stocks before White House tariff talks ...

Geraldo Rivera: Trump is the 'only !politico force' that can defeat  'gun lobby'

Trump ignored 'bright line in discussing Russia with [Hope] Hicks

Iran says it won't negotiate over its missiles until US, Europe dismantle nuclear weapons

Holder predicts obstruction charge: 'I've known Mueller for 20, 30 years' ...

Holder: 'It strikes me' that Russia has something on Trump

Headlines

Trump blasted at home and abroad for plan to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum

NBC: MacMaster leaving the White House soon

Buchanan on China: We fed the tiger, created a monster ...

Trump: 'Trade wars are good and easy to win'

Trump's gun control embrace sets off scramble in Congress

Putin: Our new weapons 'easily' beat anti-missile systems -- but this is no Cold War

Paper: How can LA continue to function with 58K homeless?

2018 poll: Immigration, gun control top issues for voters ... Russian 'collusion' dead last

U.S. ambassador to Mexico stepping down

Europe lashes out against Trump's tariffs. EU will 'react firmly' ... to defend our interests

Trump's judicial nominee confirmed despite Schumer's complaint that he's white ...

Trump, Pence meet with NRA in Oval Office amid growing differences

Trump's Tariffs

President Trump's tariffs announcement yesterday ... 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum ... has roiled the stock market and the emotive pronouncements of "free-traders" on cable TV. My reactions to this event are fourfold:

1 - I agree with Trump that these two industries are vital to the U.S.'s strategic defense future and keeping these capabilities vital and at home is worth the risk and the price.

2 - Trump has been accused of letting his business interests influence his policy decisions as president. These tariffs will increase the prices of two materials that are used in the construction of large buildings -- a Trump business mainstay.

 3 - Since the United States has trade deficits with just about every country in the world, retaliation to Trump's move by other countries should be far more damaging to them ... maybe even suicidal.

4 - Like what has happened with other industries (like the autos) ... it is quite possible that foreign producers might retaliate by just moving their manufacturing into the U.S. This would also be good for our employment levels and increase level-playing-field competition within. This is good.

So, don't panic quite yet.

Headlines

All from Internet news sites. Guess which ones came from Politico.

Jimmy Carter collapses at Habitat build ...

Senate Republicans one vote away from Obamacare repeal failure

Shortage of foreign labor forces Maine businesses to hire local workers

He's in: Kid Rock running for Senate

Stock market up 17% since Trump election ...

Trump: I may slap quotas and tariffs on steel

Pelosi: Funding sex change preserves national security

Shock: Criminal aliens drawn to sanctuary cities

Hollywood relying on China to halt box office slide ...

Trump: Democrats overplayed their hand on 'the Russia thing'

Liberal media bias got Trump elected, says former federal prosecutor

Study: 73% of Democrats would give up alcohol for Trump impeachment

Cotton Candy Technology

Innovation is one of the pistons that drives economic growth. Most of the developments that have propelled the United States into its position of economic dominance have been substantial -- light bulbs, steel, automobiles, radio and TV communication, computers, air travel, even the Internet. However, much of the latest stars of technology innovation seem a little less consequential -- social media applications like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, Tumblr, etc. -- software that does not represent significant innovation ... more fluff than stuff.

Yet these developments are creating billionaires who believe that they are the new Titans of industry ... pleeeese! Can we call this cotton candy technology? The reason that these companies are stock market darlings is that they get tremendous revenue from advertising. Yes, old-line media companies did also prosper from ads ("Duz does everything"), but they also provided real value added with programming and reporting. Most of the value added in social networking companies is provided by the end users -- kinda like the early days of e-mail companies. Where are they today?

What I am saying is that social media companies, unless they can find a way of offering their users additional value-added other than just connections, will also fade into the background of the Internet ... analogous to the e-mail-only companies of 20 years ago.

Silver Lining

Yesterday morning I watched a compelling interview on CNBC with Kyle Bass, a hedge fund manager who has shorted the Chinese yuan. His argument was that China is just months away from having to devalue it currency by not just 10% but more like 30-40% ... for his reasoning see: CNBC Interview. Then later I read an article that made a convincing case that the Chinese banking system has as much as 5 trillion dollars of nonperforming loans and the government might soon be required to bail them out using its huge sovereign reserves ... for the details see: New York Times Article.

This all sounds like awful news ... not so fast! If the yuan were to be devalued by the amount that Kyle Bass expects, then Chinese products would have enormous price advantages around the world ... and its economy would soar. Also a bailout of the Chinese banking system would clear the decks for a number of new loans to Chinese industry ... matching its explosive industrial expansion with equivalent liquidity. The result would be that China would likely once again be the world's growth engine ... quickly using up the world's existing commodity surpluses. And this would solve much of the deflationary pressures that now overhang the world's stock markets.

Therefore, once again, every cloud has a gold, copper, oil, steel and silver lining.

Chinese Checkers

It seems that all is not lotus blossoms and shark-fin soup in China these days … as one respected analyst has estimated that the economic growth rate there fell to 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014 versus the official rate of 7.4% … see: Breitbart Article. And one reason to believe that China might be experiencing such a GNP paroxysm is that the world-wide demand for commodities … oil, copper, steel, etc. … has also fallen off the shelf. If China, one of the primary drivers of the growth in such commodities, has experienced such an indicated slowdown, then it would follow that its requirements for these materials would also plummet.

As indicated in this very interesting article referenced above, the side effects of this economic slowdown in China is that it is exporting deflation and is beset by capital and labor outflows which put its large internal debt burden in a precarious position. China’s ability to manage its way through its current economic problems is far more consequential to world economic health than today’s political theater in Greece. As indicated, if China is forced to sell much of the $1.3 trillion of United States sovereign debt it now holds, interest rates here will naturally elevate … independent of the machinations of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. This would also strengthen the dollar more which, in turn, would then depress commodity prices even further.

It appears to this investor that the key to continued strength in world economies and stock markets is now held in Beijing and not in Washington and Brussels … or even in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.