Herd Immunity Update

Unlike Sleepy Joe, I will try, in the following post, to keep my decimal points in the right place.

Now, the World Health Organization has recently estimated that 10% of the world’s population has been exposed to Covid-19 (see: MSN Story) ... that’s about 730 million people! If we compare this to the World Meters actual reported numbers, roughly 36 million, we quickly realize that WHO is estimating the worldwide multiplier between asymptomatic to symptomatic cases is almost 20X.

If this multiplier be true (hate to rely on WHO) and applies to the U.S., then total Covid cases (asymptomatic+symptomatic) cases here might easily approximate 160 million (20x the 8 million that have  been reported to date). Now, stay tuned kind readers ... this is damn close to 50% of our American population (330 million).

Finally, herd immunity is generally estimated at 50-60% ... so we are also getting damn close to herd immunity (a vaccine should put us over the top) ... the place where we should see a dramatic drop-off in our Covid infection rates ... and may well have achieved it in places like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey already ... where current new-case statistics seem to confirm this possibility.

Have I made your day a little brighter?


Afterward ... see: Politico Article

STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Huh?!?

In today’s Washington Post synopsis of daily coronavirus deaths, New York State is listed as having 2,732 deaths which were high because  “criteria for counting and reporting deaths continues to change” ... see: Washington Post Numbers. 

However, World Meters, a more thorough reporting agency, has today’s New York State total coronavirus deaths tallied at 9 ... see: World Meters Numbers.

Quite a difference! Could politics be involved?


STAND UP FOR AMERICA!

Fake Stats

Many observers, including your humble poster, have felt that the most revealing statistic to use for tracking the coronavirus specter is COVID deaths. After all, that is the ultimate impact. And one key source for this data has been The Washington Post ... see: COVID deaths and click on “Deaths.”

Looking at this WaPo graph, one sees a very dramatic increase in deaths ... basically a 4x jump in one day. Wow! Is this real? Or is this more fake news ... or rather fake stats? This site offers no specific reason for this spike ... might this be another attempt by the media swamp to undermine Trump’s reopening of the U.S. economy ... in order to hamper his re-election chances?

Fortunately, we can check WaPo’s data against other sources. Please go to: World Meters and scroll down to Daily New Deaths graph. See the difference? Yes, no spike in these numbers! Can we then conclude that the numbers person(s) at WaPo has been corrupted by politics?

I conclude so.i

Afterward: See also: Powerline Entry

US Virus Data

There is some interesting data about what is happening regarding coronavirus in the United States ... see: World Meters and follow this narrative.

Scroll down on this analysis until you see the graph of Daily New Cases and you should see that coronavirus has clearly peaked in the US ... and is declining, albeit slowly. Now, scroll down further and inspect the Daily New Deaths chart. Interestingly, you will see that deaths have not only peaked, but are declining even faster than cases. (Is this why the stock market is going up?)

One would think that daily coronavirus deaths would lag daily cases ... but they appear to be leading. Why might this be?

My only possible explanation is that virus testing in the US is ramping up at such a rate as to cause positive new case results to outpace deaths. Can’t think of any other reason.

Also, kind reader, there is a curious aspect to both these charts ... and that there appears to be harmonics in each ... a sharp drop followed by four or five days of increase ... then repeated again and again to even lower levels. Anyone have any ideas why?

Afterward: And is the coronavirus mutating and decreasing in its mortality profile?

Hyperbolic?

The coronavirus appears to be on a hyperbolic growth curve ... at least for now. A few more weeks of this could mean millions of cases. Fortunately the death rate appears to be only between 2 and 3 percent. For the latest facts see: World Meters Charts.