Predicting when China would make its move on Taiwan is not a simple calculus … COVID-lockdown legacy, Ukraine lessons, Japan’s growing militancy, China’s spy balloon feedback, etc..
However, one factor has me most worried ... the political climate here in the U.S. likely will never be more favorable than it will be for the next two years. Many of our institutions would likely accede to a Taiwan invasion over the next two years than later.
Whoever is elected our next president will likely be more hostile to Xi’s blown kisses. And before then, Biden would be expected to pay back all of China’s generosity.
So, I will be holding my breath until then.
STAND UP FOR AMERICA!
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