Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Them vs. Us
- China is frequent source of pandemics, US isn’t (so far)
- China lies about number of COVAD-19 cases and deaths, US doesn't
- China “disappears” whistle blowers, US puts them on TV
- China supresses dissension, Trump allows it in his pressers
- China doesn’t find virus treatment and vaccine, US does
- China invokes martial law to stop virus spread, US requests “social distancing”
- Chinese try to escape the virus by coming to America, Americans aren’t going the other way
Headlines
Biden to Trump: ‘Stop thinking out loud’
Coronavirus live updates: Global deaths top 30,000, RI orders 14-day quarantine for out-of-state travelers
U..S. death toll doubles in two days ... Fauci projects 100,000 - 200,000 ...
It begins: L.A. moves homeless to rec centers as data shows indoor transmission 19x more likely
De Blasio downplays CDC travel advisory
Michigan and Louisiana are becoming virus hot spots, — their governors are warning supplies are running out
Florida state border checkpoints begin ...
Spain: Record 838 dead in single day
Mnuchin task force unanimously shunned Trump’s quarantine idea
Trump backs off quarantine of New York region as CDC advises against nonessential travel
Flashback: Why second wave of 1918 Spanish flu was so deadly ...
French expert: Second study shows malaria drug helps fight coronavirus
Monday, March 30, 2020
Liar?
Trump haters have one consistent mantra, “He lies, then lies about his lies.” They even document and count up these falsehoods into the tens of thousands. Pathological maybe?
How come, given this tidal wave of mendacity, I can’t recall a single “you can keep your doctor” moment? In a recent presser, Trump claimed that the mortality rate of the seasonal flu was “point zero one percent” (0.01%). Actually, the number is 0.1%. Was that a lie? Obviously not even though I strongly suspect it is number 16,743 on the Washington Post tally, I’m also reasonably sure that Trump knows the real facts about seasonal flu mortality. He just misstated things.
When Trump addresses the American people, he elides the facts, he blusters, he quotes disputed data, he makes mistakes, he even zings his enemies ... but I have yet to detect downright malicious lies by the Orangeman.
If you have, dear reader, please cull through Washington Post’s compendium of Trump falsehoods and relate back to us one of his super duper whoppers.
Wood Chipper
It’s very easy to be a skeptic ... kinda like peeing in the pea soup. And the American media is almost universally committed to it. Yes, the odds are very much against the reopening of the American economy by Easter ... as President Trump has hoped for. And now Dr. Fauci has predicted US deaths may top out in the 100,000 to 200,000 range ... so Trump has extended the “social distancing” date until the end of April.
So, how have many media-types and Dems (redundant) responded to Trump’s aspirations? With op-ed vinegar and sour-puss skepticism. Many presser questions ooze with forced doubt and contempt. While Trump answers ask our country to pull together to defeat this “invisible enemy,” the coronavirus gift from China.
The real trouble is ... he’s got a parcel of visible enemies in the room asking snotty questions. Trump may have a sandpaper personality ... but some of these “reporters” are worse than the Fargo wood chipper.
How very strange ...
Headlines
Trump mulls NY, NJ, CT ‘quarantine’ ... Duomo slams ...
New York postpones Democrat primary amid coronavirus outbreak, the 11th state to do so
DeSantis expands quarantine to Louisiana travelers
Former Republican Senators, Tom Coburn, the ‘Dr. No’ of Congress, dies at 72
Rhode Island police hunt down New Yorkers seeking refuge ...
Coronavirus live updates: NY gov balks at federal quarantine talk, CDC warns on chloroquine
Trump authorizes DOD to order National Guard troops to active duty
Biden campaign denies sexual assault allegation
USA tops 100,000 cases ...
Trump push’s back against congressional oversight for $500 billion bailout fund
Spain logs 832 fatalities in 24 hours, IMF confirms world in recession ...
Dreamers to Supreme Court: Ending DACA amid coronavirus pandemic would be ‘catastrophic’
Coronavirus live updates: NY gov balks at federal quarantine talk, CDC warns on chloroquine
Trump authorizes DOD to order National Guard troops to active duty
Biden campaign denies sexual assault allegation
USA tops 100,000 cases ...
Trump push’s back against congressional oversight for $500 billion bailout fund
Spain logs 832 fatalities in 24 hours, IMF confirms world in recession ...
Dreamers to Supreme Court: Ending DACA amid coronavirus pandemic would be ‘catastrophic’
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Butterfly in Japan
Predicting American hurricanes can be very complicated, as they say, because some think such storms can be affected by a butterfly flapping its wings in Japan.
This may be a logical stretch, but it does explain why pandemics (and climate change) forecasting is a daunting “science” .... and often an unsuccessful task. Why? Well, think about the current COvID-19 pandemic. It is certainly possible that, if this virus lived only 7 minutes on a steel surface instead of 17 minutes, then this scourge might have died off in the Wuhan wet market before it ever got started.
So, please pay attention Greta Thunberg (and your handlers). You are so certain, in your narrow and inexperienced teenage world, that CO2 is going to destroy us all. There are many other things that are at play in our evolving global climate ... things you are unable to even imagine. So, please do us a huge favor ... stop lecturing the rest of us ... at least until you have your first grey hair.
And don’t be tempted to command us about pandemics too ...
A Couple Things
- Woke up this AM picking my nose ... oops! I’m pretty sure that this is what VP Mike Pence means when he says, “don’t touch your face” ... along with rubbing you eyes (pink-eye is a symptom) and pulling a Dr. Evil by picking your teeth with your finger nail. Heard a NYC emergency room doctor on TV yesterday saying that “touching your face”was THE primary way of getting COVID-19. And this is very important! I believe him ... but how can my sleepy self also obey?
- I have speculated a few times before that the Wuhan virus mortality rates being reported by the Chinese authorities were at least ten times too low. Now comes some info that says that the funeral urns being picked up there by relatives of virus victims suggests my speculation might even be low ... see: Real Wuhan Deaths. This misreporting by the Chinese has been an important part of the lack of mitigating actions by the rest of the world ... costing us untold lives. For shame, Xi! Lack of candor is a major downside of authoritarian regimes ... even capitalistic ones. (Got that, Tom Friedman?)
Headlines
Trump calls for ousting GOP congressman from party ahead of coronavirus relief vote
Coronavirus live updates: Lack of Internet leaves millions cut off, Real ID deadline extended
USA now leads world in cases ... Peak second week in April ...
New York Times blames evangelical Christians for coronavirus
Poll: Majority approve of Trump’s coronavirus response, but more Americans say he was too slow to start
Trump criticizes GM, CEO Mary Barra for wanting ‘top dollar’ for producing ventilators
UK rocked: Boris positive ...
Hundreds die in Iran after drinking poison ‘cure’ for coronavirus
Judge orders release of 10 immigration detainees from N.J. jails
Cramer sees oil plummeting below $20 per barrel
Federal Reserve’s balance sheet tops $5 trillion for first time ...
Dr. Deborah Birx steers away from making Doomsday prediction
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Virus Drugs
Dr. Oz was on the Tucker Carlson TV show last night touting good news. ... that a new drug treatment for coronavirus looks very promising. A combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax has been given to 89 virus patients and all but one survived!
This sounds like great news, right? Let’s see ... 1 out of 89 is a mortality of about 1.1%. Isn’t that about the overall mortality rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. anyway? Where am I going wrong?
Afterward: In his presser tonight, Trump indicated that tomorrow (Monday) a trial of these drugs was being started on over 1,100 infected patients in NY. Fingers crossed.
Headlines
Trump is an authoritarian weakman
Coronavirus live update: Gig workers get unemployment in Senate bill, outbreak pushes jobless claims to record
Mayor: Half of New Yorkers will get infected ...
Imam: Virus is ‘soldier of Allah’ to harm West but not Muslims
No end in sight for Europe
Coronavirus stimulus checks will come within three weeks, Mnuchin says
China bars entry to foreigners ...
Majority of NC voters think Burr should resign for coronavirus selloff
Jobless claims soar to a record 3.3 million
Senate coronavirus bill cuts pay for execs making more than $3 million at bailed out firms
Feds to take stakes in airlines in exchange for bailouts ...
NY has 15x coronavirus cases than CA because ‘we welcome people’ [Cuomo]
Coronavirus live update: Gig workers get unemployment in Senate bill, outbreak pushes jobless claims to record
Mayor: Half of New Yorkers will get infected ...
Imam: Virus is ‘soldier of Allah’ to harm West but not Muslims
No end in sight for Europe
Coronavirus stimulus checks will come within three weeks, Mnuchin says
China bars entry to foreigners ...
Majority of NC voters think Burr should resign for coronavirus selloff
Jobless claims soar to a record 3.3 million
Senate coronavirus bill cuts pay for execs making more than $3 million at bailed out firms
Feds to take stakes in airlines in exchange for bailouts ...
NY has 15x coronavirus cases than CA because ‘we welcome people’ [Cuomo]
Friday, March 27, 2020
God?
I don’t personally believe in a divinity ... but, if there were a God, I can imagine her looking down on all the anti-Trump vitriol that has existed in the world and saying:
“OK, you human bozos, in 2016 I arranged for that boastful sinner Trump to get elected president because I feared that his opponent was Beelzebub in a pants suit ... and I knew she would destroy my grand experiment ... the shining city on the hill. Since I pulled off this minor miracle, you ungrateful tosspots did nothing but try to thwart his noble efforts and take him down. So, as punishment for this ungratefulness, I am inflicting you and many other bad-apple counties with a pandemic ... calling to me many of your elders. And, in the process, I am also going to destroy most of the wealth that the man with the orange hair has, through me, provided you. So, shape up you morons ... or I will make things even worse!”Just thinking out loud ...
Pandemics
For those who want more specifics on our past pandemics, here are some write-ups. I suspect that, the Wikipedia entries might be politically shaded, but nevertheless, since you may have lots of time on your hands, here is a way to spend it.
Spanish flu (1919) — Wikipedia Entry
Asian flu (1957) — Britannica Entry
Hong Kong flu (1968) — Britannica Entry
SARS (2003) — Wikipedia Entry
Swine flu (2009) — Wikipedia Entry
MERS (2012) — Wikipedia Entry
Wuhan flu (2020) — Wikipedia Entry
Ansolute
No, in this case, not the vodka. I’m musing about all those self-assured people who know something ... beyond a shadow of a doubt. I myself slip into this category more often than I should.
This issue presented itself while listening to President Trump’s coronavirus presser last evening. The reporters there wanted absolute answers: When will we start bending down the curve? How many people will die? Why don't we have enough ventilators? Can we really restart our economy by Easter?
The answer to all these questions are equivocations ... they have to be ... because too many variables are involved. There are hundreds of pandemic models that are predicting many of these outcomes ... and none of them will likely be absolutely right ... see: Powerline Entry Just because equations, oodles of data and super computers are involved does not assure us correct predictions ... things are too organic ... just like our climate modeling ... which too many people slavishly take as gospel ... and none of which have been right ... by quite a bit.
And the same can be said for modeling the stock market. A quirky fact ... a “black swan” ... can ... and often does beat the most sophisticated quantitive modeling.
What does the Orangeman say?
“We’ll see.”
This issue presented itself while listening to President Trump’s coronavirus presser last evening. The reporters there wanted absolute answers: When will we start bending down the curve? How many people will die? Why don't we have enough ventilators? Can we really restart our economy by Easter?
The answer to all these questions are equivocations ... they have to be ... because too many variables are involved. There are hundreds of pandemic models that are predicting many of these outcomes ... and none of them will likely be absolutely right ... see: Powerline Entry Just because equations, oodles of data and super computers are involved does not assure us correct predictions ... things are too organic ... just like our climate modeling ... which too many people slavishly take as gospel ... and none of which have been right ... by quite a bit.
And the same can be said for modeling the stock market. A quirky fact ... a “black swan” ... can ... and often does beat the most sophisticated quantitive modeling.
What does the Orangeman say?
“We’ll see.”
Another Reader Contribution
" I talked to a man today" — Thank you EarlI talked with a man today, an 90-year-old man.I asked him if there was anything I can get him while this Corona virus scare was gripping America.He simply smiled, looked away and said:"Let me tell you what I need! I need to believe, at some point, this country my generation fought for... I need to believe this nation we handed safely to our children and their children...I need to know this generation will quit being a bunch of sissies...that they respect what they've been given...that they've earned what others sacrificed for."I wasn't sure where the conversation was going or if it was going anywhere at all. So, I sat there, quietly observing."You know, I was a little boy during WWII. Those were scary days. We didn't know if we were going to be speaking English, German or Japanese at the end of the war. There was no certainty, no guarantees like Americans enjoy today.And no home went without sacrifice or loss. Every house, up and down every street, had someone in harm's way. Maybe their Daddy was a soldier, maybe their son was a sailor, maybe it was an uncle. Sometimes it was the whole damn family...fathers, sons, uncles...Having someone, you love, sent off to war..it wasn't less frightening than it is today. It was scary as Hell. If anything, it was more frightening. We didn't have battlefront news. We didn't have email or cellphones. You sent them away and you hoped...you prayed. You may not hear from them for months, if ever. Sometimes a mother was getting her son's letters the same day Dad was comforting her over their child's death.And we sacrificed. You couldn't buy things. Everything was rationed. You were only allowed so much milk per month, only so much bread, toilet paper. EVERYTHING was restricted for the war effort. And what you weren't using, what you didn't need, things you threw away, they were saved and sorted for the war effort. My generation was the original recycling movement in America.And we had viruses back then...serious viruses. Things like polio, measles, and such. It was nothing to walk to school and pass a house or two that was quarantined. We didn't shut down our schools. We didn't shut down our cities. We carried on, without masks, without hand sanitizer. And do you know what? We persevered. We overcame. We didn't attack our President, we came together. We rallied around the flag for the war. Thick or thin, we were in it to win. And we would lose more boys in an hour of combat than we lose in entire wars today."He slowly looked away again. Maybe I saw a small tear in the corner of his eye. Then he continued:"Today's kids don't know sacrifice. They think sacrifice is not having coverage on their phone while they freely drive across the country. Today's kids are selfish and spoiled. In my generation, we looked out for our elders. We helped out with single moms whose husbands were either at war or dead from war. Today's kids rush the store, buying everything they can...no concern for anyone but themselves. It's shameful the way Americans behave these days. None of them deserve the sacrifices their granddads made.So, no I don't need anything. I appreciate your offer but, I know I've been through worse things than this virus. But maybe I should be asking you, what can I do to help you? Do you have enough pop to get through this, enough steak? Will you be able to survive with 113 channels on your tv?"I smiled, fighting back a tear of my own...now humbled by a man in his 80's. All I could do was thank him for the history lesson, leave my number for emergency and leave with my ego firmly tucked in my rear.I talked to a man today. A real man. An American man from an era long gone and forgotten. We will never understand the sacrifices. We will never fully earn their sacrifices. But we should work harder to learn about them..learn from them...to respect them.
Headlines
DHS wound down pandemic models before coronavirus struck
Coronavirus: New York weighs closing parks, playgrounds and streets
Treasury negative interest ...
Pompeo: Chinese Communist Party defying world cotonavirus
Prince Charles tests positive for the coronavirus
Coronavirus bill boosts unemployment benefits, covers freelance workers
Bailout bill prevents Trump and family from personally benefitting ...
Kudlow says economic rescue will amount to $6 trillion
Republicans forging ahead with Charlotte convention
Coronavirus live updates:Almost half of NYC’s patents are under 45, cannabis seeing siales boom
Dems: Draft Cuomo movement building ...
Tokyo Olympics officially postponed until 2021
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Bailouts (Updated)
One business that theTrump organization is involved in is hotels. The Marriott hotel people have laid off 75% of its headquarters organization in Bethesda, MD ... and an equivalent percentage of its hotel staffs around the world. Obviously, Trump’s hotels are suffering an equivalent impact.
The question then becomes: Should the current Congressional $2 trillion bailout bill benefit Trump’s interests on an equivalent basis as it benefits the Marriott organization? I don’t see how it can’t. But such a potential bailout sends the Libs into paroxysms of outrage. (Watch for their snarky comments.)
Really, the only way that Democrats would calm down would be for the Trump organization to declare bankruptcy ... and Trump himself to succumb to the coronavirus.
Afterward: Heard Don Jr. on the radio today and he said that the Trump organization has been specifically excluded in the bailout bill. (Also see comments.)
Flu Hysteria
Hysteria is as common a part of the human condition as is inebriation. — Anon,
Sometime today the U.S. coronavirus deaths will surpass 1,000 ... the datapoint at which President Obama declared a national emergency in the Swine flu pandemic of 2009-2010. President Trump declared a national emergency in our current pandemic 13 days ago. The Swine flu went on to claim the lives of as many as 18,000 Americans ... disproportunately children. We can only hope that coronavirus, which mainly suffers our infirmed elders, will not be as deadly.
So far, if we can believe their numbers, it has killed 3,287 people in China (I actually believe that the real number might be 10 times higher), a country with over three times the population of the U.S. (see: Latest Numbers) ... and it appears to be fading out there as they have restarted their economy.
Are we hysterically overreacting now relative to the Swine flu? See: Dr. Birx Assessment. I believe that this pandemic mania has resulted from three major factors:
- even though this virus may not be more lethal than past ones, its spread is quite fast ... overburdening our healthcare facilities. This, in turn, has required draconian measures to “flatten the curve” which accents this threat in the public’s mind.
- maybe because this pandemic seems to prefer killing us older farts, the decision makers ... our reaction is understandably inflated due to our instinct for self-preservation.
- because of the above two reasons ... and due to the national media’s visceral hatred of President Trump, news stories have clearly accented the negative and often untrue aspects of this pandemic. This overreaction ... is called the hoax ... too few medical supplies, undefundings, inattentive and late responses, huge job losses, etc. This is a clear and unprofessional continuation of the media’s attempts to take down the Orangeman.
Headlines
Hillary Clinton mocks Trump’s science cred[ability]
Coronavirus live updates: Italy deaths jump by 743 in a day, global cases top 400,000
Entire India lockdown ...
24 million Chinese cellphone users disappear in three months of epidemic
Andrew Cuomo to Trump administration: ‘You pick the 26k people who are going to die’
House panel says remote voting during coronavirus outbreak creates challenges
Flood of unemployment claims sparks delayed checks ...
Poll: Majority of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of coronovirus
Health care workers might get coronavirus shots this fall, vaccine company CEO says
Trump wants to ‘reopen’ economy by Easter, despite the deadly threat of coronavirus
Virus lingers on surface for 17 days ...
Fed promises unlimited QE, corporate, and muni bond buying
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
A Sobering Thought
Some say everyone will get COVID-19 eventually ... particularly if Trump restarts the economy on or around Easter. And, given my risk factors — 81 with hypertension and diabetes — the odds are against my survival. So, has Trump given me a death sentence in order to keep our country from dropping into an economic depression?
Italy is already practicing coronavirus triage ... not offering extreme treatments to those over the age of 60 ... denying them ventilators and respirators. If the United States is overwhelmed with Wuhan flu cases, I suspect the same might happen here ... despite, or maybe because of our aging population (remember Trump, Biden, Pelosi, Sanders and virtually our entire ruling class also fit into this category). And until an effective vaccine is developed and/or treatment cures are found, there is a potential for tens of thousands (or more) deaths of us senior citizens. A sobering thought.
And if this nightmare scenario does come about, who of this older group might be spared? George Soros? Robert De Niro? Warren Buffett? Chuck Schumer? Mike Bloomberg? Joy Bahar? You bet your ass these poobahs will have the means to jump the line ... as will most other qualifying financiers, entertainers and politicians. Or will their altruism take over ... and they will step aside so that our younger generation will be spared because they are the future of our country?
Nah! Don’t be silly!
Headlines
Small businesses slammed by coronavirus, plead for quick help
Coronavirus live updates: Schumer says stimulus deal is close, U.S. mayors ask for equipment ‘now’
Loss of smell highlights unusual [coronavirus] marker ...
Dems dig in: Pass our agenda or no relief
Sanders wins Democrats abroad primary
Potential wave of mortgage delinquencies could bankrupt the payment system
Barrack: Commercial mortgages on brink of collapse ...
Report: Dems push pork for Planned Parenthood in coronavirus bill
Fed announces vast new emergency effort to boost economy
This was the fastest 30% sell-off ever, exceeding the pace of declines during the Great Depression
Fauci and Trump clash ...
Cuomo approves chloroquine trial tests
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
COVID-19 Data
“Just the facts, ma’am.” — Sgt. Friday on the old Dragnet TV show
My latest hero is Dr. Debrorah Birx, the numbers person on VP Mike Pence’s Coronavirus Task Force. She is an avid believer that decisions should be based on data and not speculation. And so she is a data hound, disclosing many important statistics from around the world that are driving many of President Trump’s decisions in our current crisis.
Here are a few of her recent revelations that are my favorites:
- there has been only one COVID-19 virus death in the whole world for those under the age of 15 ... a 14-year old boy in China
- only 1% of all virus deaths have been for people 50-years old and younger
- the average age of all those who have died in Italy is 85 ... with three debilitating health risks
- the mortality rate among those catching the virus in the US is about 1.3%. This compares favorably with a mortality rate in China of over 3%. However, as more testing of those who are asymptomatic proceeds, this death rate should decline. Trump believes that it could go as low as 0.7 or 0.8% versus the rate for our seasonal virus of 0.1%. Dr. Birx doesn’t seem to object to this number (S. Korea’s rate) although she doesn’t endorse it overtly.
I continue to look forward to Dr. Birx’s revelations daily ... as, I assume, Trump does also. (And I wonder why this is not seen as the most important news coming out of these pressers.)
Headlines
Desperate and angry state leaders push back on Trump admin claims of mass mask shipments
Coronavirus live updates’ Pelosi signals disagreement on massive relief package
Doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 ...
Virus rebels from France to Florida flout lockdown practices
Fauci plays down disagreement with Trump over possible treatment
Financing programs for businesses hit by coronavirus could amount to $4 trillion, Mnuchin says
[Coronavirus cases] Could peak in 30 days ...
Left to MSM: Stop airing Trump live: ‘You will get people killed’
De Blasio asks Trump to send military to New York
New York state has more coronavirus cases than France or South Korea, as infections soar to 15,168
LA gives up on containing ...
Trump admin: No plan for nat’l lockdown
Monday, March 23, 2020
Today’s Poser
How is it that we have been suffering pandemics for centuries ... killing millions and millions of people ... yet there are still no effective medical ways of dealing with these viral outbreaks other than hit-or-miss vaccines. Even the economic amelioration strategies seem to be to be inconsistent and frenetic? Have we learned nothing from our history?
Afterthought: Perhaps we should have shut down the world over HIV/AIDS?
Obvious Truth
We are living in extreme times.
Congressional Democrats are so ideologically pure that they now embrace Chinese hegemony ... would abandon their voters to the scourge of a deadly virus ... and risk an economic depression ... all in another manic attempt to defeat the Orangeman in November.
American progressive politics has become a lethal game.
Afterward: I think Nancy Pelosi would rather drink Draino than give Trump even a partial win.
Headlines
Senate races to finish negotiations on massive stimulus package
Kudlow says coronavirus relief package worth more than $2 trillion
U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about likely pandemic ...
Chinese leader lauds [Hillary] Clinton attack on Trump
New York and New Jersey Port Authority seeks $1.9B federal bailout
FDA grants ‘emergency use’ virus test that can deliver results in 45 minutes
Cuomo: Half state’s cases are people under 50 years old ..
The rescue package includes $2,400 check for families, $500 for kids
Poll: 55% approve how Trump is handling coronavirus crisis
Trump: Federal student loan borrowers can suspend payments for 60 days
Trump: ‘I don’t know’ if my businesses will receive coronavirus assistance
Goldman predicts -24% GDP ...
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Trump’s Pressers
Liberals are getting increasingly upset with Trump and his daily China-virus pressers. An easy measure of this hostility can be seen in the angry questions (really accusations) being thrown at him by the liberal media (snipers). Why is this?
My guess is that Trump is a straight-shooter ... he speaks without much equivocation ... and his favorability ratings with the American people is going up accordingly ... hitting 55% this week. This reaction infuriates Libs even more. Of course, he isn’t always right ... but he is not shy about making decisions ... “What have we got to lose.”
Does the left want to stop these pressers because they are working? That is my suspicion.