Ansolute

No, in this case, not the vodka. I’m musing about all those self-assured people who know something ... beyond a shadow of a doubt. I myself slip into this category more often than I should.

This issue presented itself while listening to President Trump’s coronavirus presser last evening. The reporters there wanted absolute answers: When will we start bending down the curve? How many people will die? Why don't we have enough ventilators? Can we really restart our economy by Easter?

The answer to all these questions are equivocations ... they have to be ... because too many variables are involved. There are hundreds of pandemic models that are predicting many of these outcomes ... and none of them will likely be absolutely right ... see: Powerline Entry  Just because equations, oodles of data and super computers are involved does not assure us correct predictions ... things are too organic ... just like our climate modeling ... which too many people slavishly take as gospel ... and none of which have been right ... by quite a bit.

And the same can be said for modeling the stock market. A quirky fact ... a “black swan” ... can ... and often does beat the most sophisticated quantitive modeling.

What does the Orangeman say?

 “We’ll see.”