Currency Wars

The world is a boil with currency devaluations, interest rate cuts and quantitative easings (QEs) by numerous central banks. Because of the recent slump in oil prices, the Canadian central bank has just cut its lending rate … with another commodity exporter, Australia, expected to follow suit shortly … see: CNBC Story. And today Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank is expected to announce the start of another QE program totaling perhaps 500 billion euros … see: Another CNBC Story.

I have in the past commented on what has degenerated into a major pissing contest between the central banks of the more developed nations and what the consequences that might result are … see: Race to the Bottom. It seems to this observer that the world has been lulled into an expectation, led by the now retired Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, that central banks are the panacea for all the world’s economic woes.

Clearly monetary policy, in the long run, cannot solve basic economic malaise … yet the world’s stock markets now seem addicted to the opiate of easy money and very low, even negative, interest rates. This cannot all end well … at some point, possibly sooner than we wish, as Obama’s reverend, Jeremiah Wright, would say, “the chickens will come home to roost.”

What is now an illogical deflationary monetary and commodity spiral, I somehow expect, will flip into run-away inflationary in a nanosecond. Money is, after all, just gussied-up pieces of paper representing a political promise. Be prepared for these promises to be broken …