Herd Immunity

I have learned not to trust any of the data points surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic ... so, dear reader, understand what you will now read might be hokum ... not as much hokum involved in the Irani and Chinese virus statistics ... but nonetheless somewhat suspect.

So let’s dive in. Stanford University has completed an antibody study of 3,300 volunteers (unfortunately not randomized) in Santa Clara County, California (in the heart of Silicon Valley) and the results are mind blowing. This study found that the number of people that had antibodies to this virus was between 48 and 82 times the number that actually had been reported to have been infected with COVID-19. Wow!

So before we go any further, read the following: Newsweek Article.

This study also reveals that the actual infection rate as a proportion of this particular population currently is between 2.5% and 4.5% ... clearly not high enough to achieve herd immunity there. However, let’s look at New York State where the latest reported case count is about 250,000. If the actual case count is 48 times higher (the lower multiplier in the above-reported rage) then the actual New York number (including asymptomatics) would be 12 million in the state versus an estimated population of 19.44 million ... or 62% ... zeroing in on a herd immunity percentage of between 65% and 80% (quoting Dr. Oz) ... particularly if one focuses in on the greater New York City area.

If the number of new cases in the greater NYC area falls off a cliff in the next week or two, I think we will be able to conclude that this area has achieved a semblance of herd immunity and that there was some validity to the Stanford study.

But why there is such a disparity between the COVID-19 infection rate tn California versus New York will still be a mystery.