Friday, August 16, 2019

Dubious Augury

Martian Levittown

I have major doubts whether the following popular forecasts will come to pass ... at least in our lifetimes ...

-  Go-everywhere self-driving vehicles

- Serious global warming caused by increases in carbon dioxide

- Electric vehicles/airplanes totally replacing internal-combustion ones

- Widespread G-5 communications

- Colonization of Mars

- Artificial intelligence/robots controlling humans

- Nuclear-powered missiles

- Vegetarian “meat” replacing real meat

- Total elimination of nuclear and hydrocarbon-based power plants

- Nuclear fusion power generation

- Quantum computers

- Plastic products disappearing altogether

1 comment:

  1. What are "our lifetimes" at this point...
    - The adoption curves for new technologies has a ramping-up period to "everywhere" and "replacing" and "totally". So it might be better to watch how pervasive those techs become.
    - 5G will be pervasive in homes and offices within a few years. If not here, then Asia.
    - Vegetarian meat is already making inroads. Soylent green...
    - There will always be nuke and hydrocarbon plants. They will just become useful for load balancing and as reserves.
    - We had better figure out what to do with plastic now that China does not want our garbage. There's a topic for you: What do we do? Mix junk plastic into road surfaces, building materials, fabrics, or just make Trump straws for $1.50 each.

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