Monday, October 24, 2016

Polling


Voter preference polls are inherently biased. Certainly, so called "self-selecting" polls on slanted websites are inherently biased ... the kind that Trump often quotes. But even purportedly unbiased polls usually have an axe to grind and somehow make their results fit their purpose ... on both sides. Here are two very recent media polls that are miles apart ... the ABC News poll which has Hellary up by 12 (see: ABC Poll) ... and the IBD/TIPP poll which shows a actual tie (see: IBD/TIPP Results). How can there be such a surprisingly large disparity ... and why?

Well, often the purpose of such "dark" polls is to discourage one block of voters from going to the polls ... even at the cost of hence being known as being an inaccurate poll. This is done by rigging ... either choosing unscientific samples (40% Democrats, 30% Independents, 30% Republicans) or making "sampling adjustments" after the fact ... see: Zero Hedge Discussion. Also there are things called "push polls" whose questions are designed either to get a predetermined result ("Do you prefer Trump's bluster or Clinton's competence?") ... or actually push the respondent in a given direction ("If you knew that Trump molested his daughters, would you then vote for him?") All very unscientific and reason enough for voters to ignore most polling results.

And there are more even subtler tricks in this an often-grifter trade. Which proves even further that voter rigging takes place before, during and after the elections. There is so much ... too much ... at stake in elections ... which indicates to me that too many candidates are in politics for themselves and not for their country. A dirty business all around.

4 comments:

ChillFin said...

Imagine no polls. It's easy if you try. Just pay no attention to them. Keep me in suspense.

George W. Potts said...

"imagine no polls" -- the first line of a forgotten John Lennon song?

ChillFin said...

Polls are insidious. We get deluded into thinking that we are trying to place a bet on a winner. If a poll reported that the Green Party was surging in the polls, would you want to bet on it... I mean, vote for it?

Thankfully we have a World Series that pits two long-waiting teams that both DESERVE to win. This is where you bet, and place your bets with your heart 'cause it'll likely be a better prognosticator.

George W. Potts said...

I once had a fortune cookie that said, "When your head agrees with your heart you are seldom wrong." Look what we got with all those heart voters in 2008 and 2012 ...