What if?

What if Donald Trump won in November? The Hollywood Reporter's Michael Wolf drew a very sharp and interesting contrast on Morning Joe this AM between the backers of Clinton versus Trump ... their iconic standard bearers being respectively Lena Dunham versus the Duck Dynasty. This election is basically a contest between the inside versus the outside ... the two coasts versus fly-over country ... the transgenderites versus the Tea Party ... the globalists versus the nationalists ... hyphenated America versus Wheel of Fortune America. These two sides of this nation's cultural coin do not understand each other nor do they like each other. Actually this is not quite true. The outsiders have been living in the insiders' world for a good 25 years and they understand this milieu quite well. The opposite is not true. And, interestingly enough, the outsiders, I believe, are the vast majority of Americans. But the insiders have controlled things because of the historic apathy of the outsiders and through bias in the media, higher education and the entertainment industry.

Basically Donald Trump has based his campaign on appealing to the outsiders almost exclusively. When he eschews the insiders, like he did this past weekend, they go nuts. Insider (Mark Cuban) after insider (Meg Whitman) jumped ship and denounced Trump to the delight of the Clinton campaign and Barbara Streisand (just about the ultimate insider.) So Trump is telling those insider Republicans to pound sand ... he doesn't need them. Wow! That is a pretty gutsy move! This means that Trump believes that he can win without the cavalry ... the Republican establishment. Now most Democrats are gleefully predicting that this is suicidal ... as are many Republicans (not so gleefully). But Trump is undaunted ... and, since he has been ahead in the polls before, I think he believes that he can come back and take the prize.

Now back to my question ... what if he does win? Maybe a 40-60 shot. Obviously the insiders would be apoplectic. They would see their power eroding and their gravy train being derailed ... see: The Voice of the People. Trump may even slake some vengeance on some of his more vocal opponents. The Republican insiders in Congress would likely fight him at every turn ... depending on the size of his victory ... small margin, with vociferousness ... large margin, behind the scenes. But, being opportunists, I can imagine some Sander's Democrats actually supporting some of his populist agenda. Most of the media, of course, would slander him at every turn until, that is  until they went belly up. The business community ... at least the large business community ... would work at cross purposes with him. I suspect the small and medium businesses might actually support him. But, after his first conservative supreme court appointment, things might begin to calm down on the right.

I truly hope that most of the bleeding because of the Obummer agenda would be stopped. If Trump was able to surround himself with enough open-minded insiders who knew how to grease the wheels of government, then he might accomplish some real improvements to the tax system, immigration, regulations, entitlements, our military preparedness, etc. But he also might reveal his natural liberal sympathies and not do everything that his electors expect of him. For instance, in reforming Obamacare, he might well move us closer to a single-payer system. And I am sure he would do other things to piss off his voters. Internationally, other world leaders would not know how to deal with him ... so they would likely be gun shy. Relations with Russia, Egypt, Israel, Great Britain and Poland would warm. They would cool with China, Iran, France and North Korea. And I don't think he would win the Nobel Peace prize.

My biggest fear would be for his safety. Wannabe terrorist on the left and those of the Muslim faith would pose a real danger to Trump. Even famous names in entertainment might be incensed enough to try something foolish. I would hope that this threat could be neutralized ... but then who really knows?