A Dangerous Chess Game

Iran is saber rattling again ... threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if stricter economic sanctions are imposed upon it by the European Union (see: Reuters Story).  Of course, the United States would not permit such a belligerent action (unless The Barry was distracted by a Hawaiian wagyu-beef luau) and would blow the Iranian navy, speedboats and all, into Davy Jones's locker.

Nevertheless, it is curious why Iran would exhibit such rhetoric bluster close on the heels of its equally lunatic take-over of the British embassy a few short weeks ago (see: TheWeek Article).  Not that such moon-howlings are alien to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad  (as sanctioned by the Iranian Ayatollahs) ... he has repeatedly threatened to obliterate Israel once Iran is in possession of atomic weaponry.

The question becomes why such taunting of the West is now escalating?  I can see three possible reasons:

1) The United States has recently pulled all of its troops out of Iraq.  Iran's throwing up of all this gorilla dust makes it look more imposing in the eyes of the Shiite Iraqis and thus increases its sphere of influence on its erstwhile enemy neighbor.

2) Iran's "elections" are due to occur in March.  There is no doubt as to the expected results of this sham balloting.  However, if Iran can get the nationalistic juices flowing among its younger people, there might be less chance of the kind of rioting that occurred after the last phony election over two years ago.  (Also, the capture of the U.S. drone aircraft a few weeks ago ... see: Cyber Warfare ...  may have been partially directed toward this very same end.)

3) Iran is suspected to be getting very close to actually producing atomic weapons and their ability to deliver them on long-range missiles.  A potential naval clash in the Strait of Hormuz could serve as a smoke screen, helping to distract the wimpy West from the far more existential threat of a nuclear Holocaust in this area.

So Iran is once again playing its foolish chess game --- a few black pieces against the full contingent of white chessmen.  One rash move on the part of any of its Revolutionary Guards could cause explosive repercussions ... such as Israel taking out much of Iran's nuclear capabilities and, maybe even, the United States obliterating that captured drone in the process (like we should have weeks ago.)