What They’re Not Telling Us

$700 billion is a boatload of bailout money (if it is eventually allocated by Congress). But, to fully understand our current economic paroxysm, one must add to this money the $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac AND last week’s $300 billion Congressional bailout of Main-Street mortgage holders. This would total $1.2 trillion of taxpayer relief to ameliorate this financial predicament (tagged “The Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis”). Add to this the approximate $400 billion of write-downs that U.S. corporations have already taken against these bad assets brings this total to around $1.6 trillion. If the average mortgage in default is for $200,000 (probably high) that suggests that there are around 8 million houses that are foreclosed or in arrears. This seems to me like a very high number since the total number of U.S. homeowners’ mortgages is only about 44 million. To view it another way, as of this summer there were in the U.S. $3.6 trillion in real estate loans and the latest statistic is that 9% of them are foreclosed or in default. This totals $324 billion of problem mortgages or about ¼ of the government money that Frank/Pelosi/Paulson have or want to be thrown at this problem. And this is less than the toxic amount that has already been financially evaporated off corporate balance sheets!

So, it seems to me that there is a lot more to this economic crisis than they are telling us. I suspect I know what it is … and it is something called “credit-default-swaps” (CDSs). Basically these are unregulated (and therefore opaque) ad hoc insurance policies that have been created to offload risk from debt holders (such as banks) in case these debts (such as mortgages) are not paid back. These CDSs carry an insurance premium and have been traded worldwide back and forth like stocks and bonds … that is, they did until the credit markets recently froze up. (The worldwide nature of CDS trading, it seems to me, is why what should be an U.S.-only problem has spread around the globe.) Now, if the final holder of some of these CDSs goes belly-up (such as AIG), then this insurance also disappears and the backstop to mortgage holders becomes will-o-the-wisp. The most recent estimate of the total amount of CDSs circulating world-wide is $62 trillion … a staggering number … which effectively multiplies the size of the mortgage crisis by almost 39! Now note that, when AIG went south, the Federal Reserve also stepped in and fronted AIG with an $85 billion bailout. So, I conclude, that, no matter how this financial crisis is being painted as the failure of U.S. sub-prime mortgages, it is now really a collapse of the worldwide CDS market precipitated by the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis (which, as has been shown, should have more than enough committed funds to fix it).

Obvious Conclusion: The $700 billion bailout package REALLY IS A BAILOUT OF WALL STREET AND ALL THOSE INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE CREATED CDSs. IT ONLY HAS A TANGENTIAL RELATIONSHIP TO MAIN STREET. IT SHOULD NOT, I REPEAT NOT, BE ENACTED UNLESS AND UNTIL IT CONTAINS RULES AND OVERSIGHT FOR THE CDS MARKETPLACE. (IMHO)