Boiling the Ocean

There is little doubt that Elon Musk of Tesla Motors, SpaceX and now possibly SolarCity is a technical genius, a brilliant manager and a true visionary.  He has just released his newest Master Plan that outlines what he wants his companies to become ... the leaders in sustainable energy production and Earth/space transportation innovation. He has a very clear and, in many ways, appealing notion of what the world should be like ... see: CNBC Story. Read this hyperlink ... it is fascinating.

However there might be some downsides to this vision. Please don't call me a Luddite, but I have the following reservations regarding Musk's manifesto:

1) Musk has a very full plate now for his ideological ambitions. I worry that he is trying to boil the ocean and this will eventually overwhelm him. Building the next major car, truck and bus company, an important space exploration company, and a major sustainable energy provider ... all at the same time, although admirable objectives, seem a little overly ambitious.

2) I have, in the past, shown some skepticism about the probable pace of self-driving car technology. Tesla, Google and the other pioneers in this arena, IMHO, are ignoring a basic fact of human nature ... and that is to be in control of things. Yes, some will wish to turn their driving over to a computer, but I doubt that we will ever see the Indianapolis 500 comprised of any autonomous race cars.

3) His devotion to sustainable energy has been rewarded so far by the current administration's green agenda. Recently Spain, Great Britain and Germany all have backed away from their commitments to killing carbon. If Trump wins in November, it is likely that the U.S. government's subsidy largess may begin to dry up. This largess has been a key ingredient in Musk's marketing success.

I do hope I am wrong ... but I am not a buyer of Tesla's stock.