The Morning After

Donald Trump seems well on his way to winning the Republican nomination for president. If he can carry Ohio or Florida or both this coming Tuesday, it may well be a fait accompli. Yes, he supposedly is behind Hellery in the one-on-one presidential polling, but there are a number of feasibilities that might upset these predictions ... Hellery might be indicted ... it is certainly possible that Bernie Sander's supporters might stay home in the general election to protest his unfair loss of the nomination ... clearly Trump is garnering many of the Reagan Democrat votes in his primary contests ... and Trump, unlike Mitt Romney,  certainly is winning the enthusiasm game with many current Republicans.

So my conclusion unfortunately is that Donald Trump may well be our next president. Then what? I can envision a very difficult four years listening to someone whose personality grates on me almost as much as Obummer's. If the majority of Trump's current supporters wake up with an equivalent election hangover, then we might have a tough morning after. The degree of this disaffection will depend on Trump's governance. I do believe that he will start out on fire. The "beautiful" Mexican wall will be built. TPP will be renegotiated. A hold will be placed on Syrian immigration. Sanctions will be placed back on Iran (probably unilaterally).  Our military will start to be rebuilt.

But reality will also start to creep in. Trump's liberal core will start to show through his Tea Party patina. His Supreme Court pick will probably not thrill his conservative voters. He may have a very tough time with the old Republican guard in Congress reforming taxes, entitlements and regulations. Many countries around the world are already appalled with the possibility of a Trump presidency. I doubt if all the king's horses and all the king's men will be able to put this egg back together. And his abrasive personality will constantly incite the American media, so that they will take daily pot shots at him ... eventually making important reforms almost impossible.  ... as well as stirring up serious class and race warfare.

I do think Donald Trump, as President, has an outside shot at becoming a cheap copy of  Ronald Reagan. but I am not betting a lot of money on it. I'm already stocking up on ice packs and Alka Seltzer.